4 thoughts on “The Weekend Wonk: Stefan Rahmstorf on North Atlantic Circulation”
Stefan’s one of the good guys in this story. He’s added a few new insights into the phenomenon.
Note too that the pro-growth economist Richard Tol has commented on the shutdown of the AMOC as “Good! It’ll help cool off Europe!” and yet if you look at the temperature gradients, the Northern Europe area is still warming. A stagnant, de-oxygenated ocean and violent storms seems to be just quibbling to Tol, when the focus needs to be on Mo’ Money for the short term investor class.
Haven’t had time to watch the 50mins video yet but will do when free time permits. A major known tipping point danger that needs regular monitoring. Interesting articles recently.
A Major Ocean Current Is at Its Weakest Point in 1,000 Years
“If the world keeps on warming, the current’s behavior eventually should tip outside the bounds of natural variability, flowing into uncharted territory.”
Dr. Rahmstorf’s talk was an excellent reminder that the ‘devil is in the data’, meaning that laypeople’s plausible conclusions may not cut it, and that more granular analyses like on salinity in the paper by Liu et al may come to vastly different conclusions than a majority of papers that went with shallower assumptions.
I’m also reminded of the late Stephen Schneider’s risk analogy: we find it normal to insure against the relatively low risk of a house fire yet ignore planetary risk of much higher impact.
I finally got around to watching it, and I’m almost regretting it. Toward the end Stefan Rahmstorf is almost begging for people to find errors in the analysis.
Stefan’s one of the good guys in this story. He’s added a few new insights into the phenomenon.
Note too that the pro-growth economist Richard Tol has commented on the shutdown of the AMOC as “Good! It’ll help cool off Europe!” and yet if you look at the temperature gradients, the Northern Europe area is still warming. A stagnant, de-oxygenated ocean and violent storms seems to be just quibbling to Tol, when the focus needs to be on Mo’ Money for the short term investor class.
Haven’t had time to watch the 50mins video yet but will do when free time permits. A major known tipping point danger that needs regular monitoring. Interesting articles recently.
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A Major Ocean Current Is at Its Weakest Point in 1,000 Years
“If the world keeps on warming, the current’s behavior eventually should tip outside the bounds of natural variability, flowing into uncharted territory.”
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-major-ocean-current-is-at-its-weakest-point-in-1-000-years/
“Climate Change One of the Reasons Why Major Ocean Current In Its Lowest In 1000 Years”
https://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/50621/20220430/climate-change-one-reasons-why-major-ocean-current-lowest-1000.htm
Dr. Rahmstorf’s talk was an excellent reminder that the ‘devil is in the data’, meaning that laypeople’s plausible conclusions may not cut it, and that more granular analyses like on salinity in the paper by Liu et al may come to vastly different conclusions than a majority of papers that went with shallower assumptions.
I’m also reminded of the late Stephen Schneider’s risk analogy: we find it normal to insure against the relatively low risk of a house fire yet ignore planetary risk of much higher impact.
I finally got around to watching it, and I’m almost regretting it. Toward the end Stefan Rahmstorf is almost begging for people to find errors in the analysis.