Could Fall Become Tornado Season in the Northeast?

November 15, 2021

Meteorologist Matthew Cappucci on Twitter:

We could wind up with a dozen tornadoes confirmed on Long Island and in southern New England when all is said and done from Saturday’s outbreak. We’ve got to start talking about how human-induced climate change/warming waters are creating a real autumn tornado season in SNE.

Each of the past several years has featured an “unusual” fall cold-season event, particularly in October and November. We’re seeing more in the fringe season. The additional CAPE plus a seasonably-strong jet stream is making squall lines grow taller and become tornadic.

Obviously natural variability plays a role too; this past event featured a strong negatively-tilted trough, or dip in the jet stream, and a packet of energy aloft… but, with warming waters, we’re getting a little corridor that routinely sees tornadoes in the fall nowadays.

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