Hurricane Season starting soon, while many areas will still be recovering from last year’s record destruction. What’s the forecast?
Peter Jacobs, above, is a PhD student and researcher at George Mason University Department of Environmental Science and Policy, and with climate comms ace John Cook, whips up the Evidence Squared podcast.
He is co-author, with Kevin Trenberth and LiJing Cheng, on a new paper examining Hurricane Harvey and Ocean heat.
The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, which kicks off June 1, is expected to bring at least 14 named storms, according to researchers, putting it above the long-term average of 11 recorded between 1950 and the present day.
Colorado State University is forecasting 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. North Carolina State University is forecasting 14 to 18 named storms, seven of which are expected to grow to hurricane strength, and three to five of which may become major hurricanes, defined as Category 3 or higher.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 and includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The Pacific season, which covers the Eastern Pacific basin, started on May 15 and also runs through Nov. 30.
Last week, the first tropical depression of the season formed far from the west coast of Mexico, but eventually dissipated, according to the Weather Network. The National Hurricane Center is urging coastal residents to start preparations now for an active season.
There were 18 named storms in the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, according to the NHC, in what was one of the deadliest — and costliest — seasons ever. Of that total, 10 became hurricanes, and six of those were Category 3 storms or higher.
Here is a source of all Atlantic hurricanes recorded since 1851. http://www.stormfax.com/huryear.htm
One thing to keep in mind is the early years data is not very reliable. Last years storms were similar to other years, 2005, 1995, 1969 to name three years.
Tropical Atlantic waters have been warmer than average which is the reason for the numbers forecast in this article.
There is a study on hurricanes for the last 7000 years.
Reconstructing 7000 years of North Atlantic hurricane variability using deep-sea sediment cores from the western Great Bahama Bank
Michael R. Toomey,1,2 William B. Curry,1 Jeffrey P. Donnelly,1 and
Peter J. van Hengstum1
Received 10 July 2012; revised 3 January 2013; accepted 8 January 2013; published 15 March 2013. PALEOCEANOGRAPHY, VOL. 28, 31–41, doi:10.1002/palo.20012, 2013
which you can look up if interested.
One thing to keep in mind that to get an average simply adds up all the data and divides by the number. It does not actually mean vary much. The mean is a better gauge of the outers in any data set.
Sorry, I meant mode which is the number which occurs most. To gauge the outers it helps to know if one has some common number of storms. It helps to also divide the number set into bands to determine how frequent the outers are or are not. One than comes up with ex-ordinary storm events, last years does not fall into more than large due to the stall over Texas. Texas damage was due to man, the city and county allowed builders to build in known flood plains without any attempt to change the water flow so they flooded. The damage in Porto Rico was due not to the storm but due to the decrepit condition of the electrical grid in Porto Rico. Cuba had similar displaced people and homes damaged or destroyed and was up and running in about a month.
Dunno what you wanna tell us, ted. Your link and the study, Reconstructing 7000 years of North Atlantic hurricane variability using deep-sea sediment cores from the western Great Bahama Bank, confirm the rise of hurricanes. Is that the kind of “research” you’re doing all day long?
BTW, it’s not just the amount of hurricanes that should make one worry, but also their increasing strength.
=> Tropical cyclones and climate change
Hi Ted,
It seems you’re attempting to obfuscate the connections between human activity and tropical cyclone impacts. Would you like some help with that?
I looked at some data which suggest there is no correlation or at best a very weak one. You imply that you know everything and if you do take a look at the sources I cited above and refute them one on one.
I looked at some data which suggest there is no correlation or at best a very weak one. Feel free to show how the cited sources are wrong.