Hours, Days, or Weeks

June 29, 2017

Hours, days, or Weeks. That’s the timeline for the next big ice shelf collapse on the Antarctic peninsula, which has been widely predicted after a large and rapidly growing crack was discovered in the area. I spoke to Glaciologist Eric Rignot about it in December.

Meanwhile, I’ll be on standby to report if/when this drops.

USAToday:

One of the world’s biggest icebergs ever recorded is “hours, days, or weeks” away from breaking off an Antarctic ice shelf, scientists announced Wednesday.

“In another sign that the iceberg calving is imminent, the soon-to-be-iceberg part of Larsen C Ice Shelf has tripled in speed to more than 10 meters per day between June 24th and June 27th,” said Adrian Luckman of Project MIDAS, a British Antarctic research project that’s keeping watch on the ever-growing crack.

“The iceberg remains attached to the ice shelf, but its outer end is moving at the highest speed ever recorded on this ice shelf. We still can’t tell when calving will occur — it could be hours, days or weeks,” he added.

Once the iceberg breaks off, it “will fundamentally change the landscape of the Antarctic Peninsula,” he said.

After the berg breaks off, Larsen C will be less stable than it was prior to the rift, and the ice shelf could eventually follow the dramatic example of its neighbor Larsen B, which disintegrated in 2002 following a similar rift-induced calving event.

After that break, the number of glaciers behind it accelerated and are still flowing faster than before.

Project MIDAS said there is no evidence to link the growth of this rift, and the eventual calving, to climate change.

However, it is widely accepted that warming ocean and atmospheric temperatures have been a factor in earlier disintegrations of ice shelves elsewhere on the Antarctic Peninsula, most notably Larsen A in 1995 and Larsen B in 2002.

Project Midas:

In another sign that the iceberg calving is imminent, the soon-to-be-iceberg part of Larsen C Ice Shelf has tripled in speed to more than ten meters per day between 24th and 27th June 2017. The iceberg remains attached to the ice shelf, but its outer end is moving at the highest speed ever recorded on this ice shelf. We still can’t tell when calving will occur – it could be hours, days or weeks – but this is a notable departure from previous observations.

The most recent observations on 27th June do not cover the rift tip, but a low resolution Sentinel-1 image of just after midnight on 28th June shows clearly that the iceberg remains attached to the ice shelf at its western end – for now.

When it calves, the Larsen C Ice Shelf will lose more than 10% of its area to leave the ice front at its most retreated position ever recorded; this event will fundamentally change the landscape of the Antarctic Peninsula. We have previously shown that the new configuration will be less stable than it was prior to the rift, and that Larsen C may eventually follow the example of its neighbour Larsen B, which disintegrated in 2002 following a similar rift-induced calving event.

The MIDAS Project will continue to monitor the development of the rift and assess its ongoing impact on the ice shelf. Further updates will be available on this blog, and on our Twitter feed.

Advertisements

57 Responses to “Hours, Days, or Weeks”


  1. Yep, I can just see it, where all the enviro-activist cameramen are lined up by the crack, with visions of that old Pepsi commercial dancing in their heads, where the Coke guy stocking the shelves tries to sneak a Pepsi and unleashes an avalanche.

    But are you fellows forgetting what time of year it is in the Antarctic?

    • dumboldguy Says:

      Do you have a point, Russell? Didn’t think, so beyond posting BS here so that you can claim a “hit” in your time card and earn your whore’s dollar from Heartland.

      Since you self-admittedly “know no science”, may we point out to you it’s summer-fall-winter-spring somewhere/everywhere on the planet, Russell? And guess what? The hot places are getting hotter, the cold places are getting hotter, the in-between places are getting hotter, and there is almost NO place on this planet that is experiencing a net gain in ice.

      What I’d like to see is a whole line of you and your A-H denier whore buddies lined up by the crack—-I’d be glad to run along behind you all, push you all over the edge, and thereby stem the ‘avalanche” of bullshit. Go away.


      • Can’t help ya if the point sails right over your head.

        Meanwhile, on another topic of the day, aren’t you fellows furious with CNN since their producer John Bonifield admitted they only gave lip service to the back-out from the Paris Accord long enough to serve whatever need that served, only to re-focus on the Russian thing for its ratings purposes … which Van Jones admitted was a nothing-burger? That’s like a double slap in the face to Crocks, isn’t it?

        https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DDhZgW3XgAAbDfB.jpg:large

        • dumboldguy Says:

          You made no “point” Russell—-you only seek to disrupt and distract, and that’s all this new comment is. (And did someone “double-slap” your head too many times in the past?—-is that why your thinking is so addled?_

        • toby52 Says:

          Tell that to the Turkish and probable Russian agent Flynn that an imcompetent President tried to foist on the nation as national security chief, even after he was warned the man was tainted. What did Trump know and when did he know it?


        • So …. y’all are ok with CNN and Van Jones showing their true colours, then?

          • dumboldguy Says:

            As I said, Russell’s only purpose in life is to work with other whores like Vera and try to distract and disrupt the discussion. The topic here is AGW and a huge crack in an ice sheet, NOT-NOT-NOT-NOT-NOT-NOT Van Jones and CNN.

            And talking about showing “true colors”, Russell is looking less like an American every day. Can he be that big a whore? Is he that desperate for the $$$ he takes from the fossil fuel interests that he is now tiptoeing around being treasonous in his comments?

            (One thing we can be sure of is that if we “unwrap” Russell, Vera, and the other whores, they are all S**T brown in color)

            PS what’s with the “our” in colors, Russell? Are you even an actual American? Do you think the “y’all” will fool us?

          • vierotchka Says:

            I am flabbergasted by how someone like you, passing himself off as intelligent, is so totally and hermetically impervious to logic! It obviously is due to the lobotomy you had!

            LOL!

          • dumboldguy Says:

            LOL? You’re not funny, Vera, and the “best you can do” remains the childish and moronic gifs you post and the mindless bald assertions you use as insults. You show less talent at “hitting back” than Trump, and that’s saying something.

        • andrewfez Says:

          Trump was trying to lift Russian sanctions since the first week he was in office. There’s something there; it’s still not clear what it is, but there’s something; perhaps payback for all that Russian money he used to build his golf courses after sensible banks wouldn’t give him any more loans.

          http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-wanted-to-lift-russia-sanctions-days-after-taking-office-2017-6

          But the scandal everybody seems to be missing is he filed to open like 8 businesses in Saudi Arabia and then all of a sudden he gives them $100B in weapons, and they donate $100M to Ivanka’s charitable foundation (if you know anything about charitable foundations and the Trump’s, that charity money always finds its way into their pockets). The conflicts of interest and pay to play corruption are over the top. SA also spent like $250k at one of his hotels as an additional bribe.

          And what’s SA gonna do with $100B in weapons? It’s gonna give some of that out to terrorists and use the rest to protect its own human rights violating self – SA is ‘ISIS that made it’.

    • J4Zonian Says:

      Well, let’s see, it’s summer up here, so um, it must be uh, Tuesday? in Antarctica?

      Well no, it’s winter. Which makes the fact that one of the largest icebergs ever continues to break off all the more remarkable. I mean, ice is supposed to melt in summer, right? Isn’t it supposed to freeze more solidly and spread and thicken in the winter? When it keeps right on melting and breaking and calving and shucking and jiving right through winter… wow.

      I wonder if something is happening in the world to do this to ice.

      • Earl Mardle Says:

        I was with you J4Z, right up to the brave but doomed attempt at irony in the last sentence. Needs a mind capable of holding two contradictory ideas together and appreciating the difference. These guys can do 20 contradictions simultaneously and not see any of the holes between them.

        Still, we can live in hope eh? A very small, but very crowded village full of very disappointed people.


        • So in your book, a giant crack in the ice is all the evidence you need that runaway increasing warming down there caused that, not the effects of unrelenting gravity on a not-exactly-100% solid mass. Optimist that I am (meaning I think “happy thoughts” for those of you in Rio Linda and Port St Lucie) about y’all, I believe one day you or others will re-read what was said in the pieces Peter featured, and connect the dots to the current season there right now and the funny old Pepsi commercial I dropped in. “Oh, I didn’t think of that”, you’ll say. And then if you continue on that path of critical thinking, you might start wondering about other narratives you’ve heard which need re-examining.

          Unrest is born. And it’s in your own material, not tactics hatched in Exxon’s conference rooms. The stuff your leaders tell you either lines up perfectly or it does not.

          • dumboldguy Says:

            No, Russell, “in our book” we have read the articles, and they say that this crack cannot be directly attributed to warming and that it may not break off for quite a while. Who knows, the fact that it’s now approaching the depths of winter down there may slow it down. One thing is sure, other ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula have broken off and disintegrated, and there is no reason to think this one won’t follow. The AP has been one of the fastest warming places on the planet. so it’s just a matter of time.

            And talking about “…the effects of unrelenting gravity on a not-exactly-100% solid mass” shows just how deficient your science knowledge is. Get someone to explain to you that warming oceans and warming air are a bigger factor than freaking GRAVITY! LMAO! And your Pepsi BS still makes no sense—-there are no “dots” to connect for anyone who is rational—-you’re not.

            PS Don’t know what the Port Saint Lucie reference is, but the Rio Linda comment is a slur taken from Rush Limbaugh’s sick mind—-why does it not surprise me that Russell and Rush are sympatico?

          • ubrew12 Says:

            Until you snap your fingers and thus rebuild Larsen A and Larsen B, you’re nothing but a Koch apologist. Until then, the rest of us have a pretty good idea where Larsen C is going. The only reason for your advocacy is your hope it’ll bury half a billion Bangladeshi’s along with it. That and the money.

          • astrostevo Says:

            “So in your book, a giant crack in the ice is all the evidence you need that runaway increasing warming down there caused that, not the effects of unrelenting gravity on a not-exactly-100% solid mass.”

            Evidence. Yeah, about that. You seem to be ignoring it, we seem to be accepting it and understanding it and grokking what it implies. There’s a lot more evidence than *_just_* this Larsen C crack and the pattern and trend of disintegrating ice shelves as the Antarctican peninsula unzips and thaws.

            Hint : Its in the “global” part of the whole global overheating phenomenon and how consistent it is with other pieces of evidence such as the decline in Arctic sea ice, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, the known astrophysics of how carbon dioxide and other GHGs work in planetary atmospheres. So, no. Its not “all” the evidence we need -just a small but consistent part of it.

            Also “gravity” eh? Well, seems again you’ve missed the point and don’t know what your are talking about. Hint : Gravity hasn’t changed, levels of Co2 and other GHG’s have and, funnily enough – except not so funny really – sohave temperatures in the region and the stability of the ice-shelves we’re discussing here. How exactly did you plan to blame “gravity” for the causation here?

            “And then if you continue on that path of critical thinking, you might start wondering about other narratives you’ve heard which need re-examining.”

            I’d suggest you take your own advice here,Russell Cook, but you need to start with actually starting to think critically. Its all too evident that you don’t yet do so.

            “The stuff your leaders tell you either lines up perfectly or it does not.”

            False dichotomy and unstated assumptions fallacies on your part there. You assume we have and listen to “leaders” rather than judging for ourselves based on reason and evidence. A false assumption on your part. The “stuff” is multiple lines of evidence from multiple peer-reviewed and measured evidence as well as experienced reality and reliable, multiply confirming sources.

            Also modelling is suggestive and doesn’t necessarily need to line up exactly given multiple variables and indeed, multiple models. Trends here are a key factor rather than precision just as the precise weather of tomorrow may be out but the fact that a given season is predictably hotter (summer) or colder (winter) than others. It also seems you fail to account for the possibility that the models (I presume that’s your “stuff”” reference?) may actually be overly conservative and under-estimating the scale of the problem here.

            Time will tell. So far the climatologists have been proven right, the Deniers not so much. Ever read about Plimer’s lost bet?

    • lesliegraham1 Says:

      It’s dead on mid-winter in the Antarctic. The coldest it gets is usually right about now.
      What’s your point?


    • Russell, no doubt about it. You’re a class A whacko!

  2. andrewfez Says:

    What’s the sea level rise commitment for the glacier behind Larson C?

    • dumboldguy Says:

      There’s not much of a glacier behind Larsen C, so not much sea rise will result. From what I’ve gathered, the concern is that this is a harbinger of things to come in other places, particularly West Antarctica, where much larger glaciers will flow more rapidly if the ice shelves that hold them back are removed. Recall seeing ~10 feet of SLR predicted over a span of (?) decades

      • andrewfez Says:

        I watched an Eric Rignot lecture like a month ago, and he said everyone was pretty comfortable with 1 meter SLR by 2100 as the current global commitment. I knew Larson A & B were only going to add a few cm’s, but wasn’t sure if C was one of the bigger ones or not. 360GT of ice provides about 1mm of SLR; that’s something of a gauge as to how big these stores of ice really are; basically we’ve committed to melting hundreds of trillions of tons of ice by 2100 already. Nobody talks about 2200 though – at that point my favorite vacation spot at the beach will be gone and map makers and surveyors will be in demand.

  3. Gingerbaker Says:

    Incase anyone had any doubts whatsoever

    Security expert: GOP attempt to find Russian hacked Clinton emails had Trump campaign ties:

    “…not only was the operative, Peter Smith, communicating with Russian hackers, but his operation was formed with the “blessing” of at least some members of now-President Trump’s campaign.” and these were:

    ” Trump’s former national security adviser and then-adviser Michael Flynn, now-White House chief strategist Steve Bannon, now-counselor to the president Kellyanne Conway and now-Agriculture Department policy adviser Sam Clovis.

    Several of those names appeared on a document specifying the mission and scope of Smith’s operation dated Sept. 7, 2016 that was obtained by the Journal.”

    http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/340345-security-expert-gop-attempt-to-find-russian-hacked-clinton-emails

    • vierotchka Says:

      The emails were leaked, not hacked! LOL!

    • vierotchka Says:

      That article proves absolutely nothing!

      • Gingerbaker Says:

        Correct – it is merely first-person evidence of involvement of Trump’s campaign team actively seeking out hacked e-mails from Russian sources; naming names in Trump’s campaign; and providing corroboration of U.S. Intelligence services allegations.

        That’s all. (!)

        But, by itself, it doesn’t “prove” anything. Thanks for your valuable input clearing that up, V.

    • dumboldguy Says:

      Look at Vera the Whore for Putin squirm as the drip-drip-drip of truth becomes a torrent.

      Let’s not forget that they had the Orange Disasyer’s blessing:

      • vierotchka Says:

        Oh looky there, right on queue! While I was out having a life, our very own positively mephistophelean NeoCon whore and Pro-Nuclear-Holocaust whore & troll came crawling out from the pig manure pit to spew his inane venom against me! LOL!

        • dumboldguy Says:

          Just like Trump, Vera avoids the truth and tries to distract us with bullshit. Can’t wait to see what comes of the meeting between Putin and his Puppet at the G20.

          • vierotchka Says:

            Heh heh! Dumboldguy the NeoCon and Nuclear Holocaust whore and troll has spoken again!

            What truth? Your fake truth? LOL! Unlike you, I am not a gullible fool.

          • dumboldguy Says:

            Vera says “I am not a gullible fool”, but demonstrates to all how easy it is to “hook” her with just a brief comment. Which of course causes her to then “knee-jerk” and spend time coming up with another stupid gif.

            How absurd that she does not recognize how foolish she looks and that she keeps proving it time and time again.

  4. redskylite Says:

    When a man with a recorded IQ of around 160 says we are in danger, it would be wise to listen, instead of thinking you know better and writing of as a liberal. You are truly crazy, reckless and ignorant Russell – Go away from here and take Bates with you. AND DON’T COME BACK.

    Hawking says Trump’s climate stance could damage Earth

    Stephen Hawking says that US President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of the Paris climate agreement could lead to irreversible climate change.
    Prof Hawking said the action could put Earth onto a path that turns it into a hothouse planet like Venus.
    He also feared aggression was “inbuilt” in humans and that our best hope of survival was to live on other planets.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-40461726

    • J4Zonian Says:

      No matter what someone’s IQ is, there will no doubt be some things each of us agrees with him or her on and some things we disagree with. Using this as an appeal to authority leaves us open to the denying delayalists dragging out their own people good at solving puzzles (IQ tests), even if they’re retired nutcase cranks like James Lovelock.

      Aggression is not the same as human-to-human violence. Humans have always relied on killing animals for part of their food, and so have some instinct and/or ability to kill for survival. That has nothing to do with war or other violence against humans, suicidal impulses or moving to other planets, taking all our psychological problems with us. It’s a solution to nothing. Our problems are entirely relational, and must be solved in relation with each other, and with nature.

      We’re better off trusting a consensus of smart people who are trained in the fields we’re discussing, and people who have demonstrated a capacity to work in many fields, like Leo DaVinci. If anyone sees him, I’d love to hear his opinion on what we should do–after he’s caught up on what we can do.

      • dumboldguy Says:

        Here’s Jeffy4Z, again showing disrespect for Jefferson (and Lovelock) by spouting inanities and illogic. Both TJ and Lovelock have done more deep thinking in one day than Jeffy has done in his entire life, and calling Lovelock a “retired nutcase crank” just proves how Dunning-Kruger Jeffy is, particularly in bringing up the idea of “dueling smart people” and how the forces of evil will trot out their own and thereby empower the “delaying denialists”—-my response to that gem of deep thinking was “WHAT?, JFC!, and He can’t be serious?”.

        At the age of 97, Lovelock is NOT retired, and is busily THINKING and stirring the shitpot that is the human race’s understanding of itself and the planet. He is a maverick and a gadfly and seems to be having great fun in his later years—-part of which includes reexamining and modifying his past positions on certain things, such as the speed with which the impending CAGW disaster is approaching.

        He and Hawking both think that CAGW is coming and that the human race will only survive if we leave the planet, and as a “fairly smart person who has knowledge in the fields we’re discussing”, I will “pull a Jeffy4Z” and think above my pay grade by disagreeing with them—-the human species evolved in the environment of Earth, and putting some thousands of us in a cave on Mars or in cans in space does NOT constitute “survival” in any meaningful sense. We either make it here living in the conditions in which we evolved or we become functionally extinct like so many species before us (and GAIA will breathe a sigh of relief when that happens).

        I DO agree with the concerns that Hawking and Lovelock have that robots and AI are going to get us if CAGW doesn’t, and perhaps even before it does. I think both of them would laugh at Jeffy’s very superficial “Our problems are entirely relational, and must be solved in relation with each other, and with nature”.

        While I’m beating up on Jeffy4Z, I wonder how much dope he smoked to come up with the confused BS about “Aggression is not the same as human-to-human violence, etc, etc…..”. He is obviously “not trained” in the field of human evolution, psychology, anthropology, or sociology, and offers little to the “consensus of smart people”.

        And lastly, I am stunned by the vapid attempt at cuteness with the “Leo” BS (LEO?—JFC!) Here’s a plan for you, Jeffy. When you and your deep thinking friends finish smoking all your weed, chanting OM, and playing your bongos in the yurt on the beach, jump in the water and swim west until you sink—-if there is a hereafter, maybe you will meet “Leo” and can ask him yourself.

    • vierotchka Says:

      There’s a pretty good article about this by the BBC, too:

      http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-40321674

      • dumboldguy Says:

        Vera has been in hiding for a while, probably because her Russian troll masters have told her to lay low since the big revelations about TRUMP CAMPAIGN COLLUSION WITH THE RUSSIANS were about to come out.

        So here she is “playing nice” and trying to stay on topic. It won’t work, Vera—we all know that you have NO interest in climate change and only come to Crock to spew bullshit about Putin and his puppet Trump. You waste your time and ours. (Cue stupid and childish gif in response)

          • dumboldguy Says:

            So predictable—childish and stupid gif as expected.. Score is now Vera 2. DOG and friends approaching 300.

            How about them Donald Trump Jr. emails, Vera? Are you and your whore masters going to call them FAKE NEWS? Considering that DT JR released them himself, that would be a real stretch. LMAO and thinking of some old Chinese proverb to the effect—-“When you shake the tree, the monkeys fall out” (and you fell out of the tree the first time you commented on Crock).

          • vierotchka Says:

            You are totally

          • dumboldguy Says:

            Yep, thought so—-Vera is UNABLE to come up with any substantive reply to the PROOF that Trump minions colluded with the Russians and Putin and his evil little dwarfs DID in fact interfere with the election.

            PS When Vera was the first monkey to fall out of the tree, she must have landed on her head.

          • vierotchka Says:

            If you honestly believe that the very intelligent Putin wanted the totally unstable, unpreditable and rather insane psychopath Trump to have his finger on the nuclear button rather than Hillary Clinton, not only are you much dumber than I credited you for, you also are

            Better the devil you know and are used to than the insane demon.


Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: