More Evidence: Arctic Warming Effect on Jet Stream = More Extremes

June 8, 2012

If you have not seen the video above from my “This is Not Cool” series at Yale Climate Forum, take some time to watch. It was based on the most current research that is beginning to explain the increasingly erratic swings in northern hemisphere weather patterns over recent years. Now a team from Cornell has published yet another paper underlining those findings, which explain why climate change is producing not only unprecedented warm events like this recent spring, but also wild swings into record-breaking snow and ice storms.

Cornell University: 

The dramatic melt-off of Arctic sea ice due to climate change is hitting closer to home than millions of Americans might think. That’s because melting Arctic sea ice can trigger a domino effect leading to increased odds of severe winter weather outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere’s middle latitudes — think the “Snowmageddon” storm that hamstrung Washington, D.C., during February 2010.

Cornell’s Charles H. Greene, professor of earth and atmospheric sciences, and Bruce C. Monger, senior research associate in the same department, detail this phenomenon in a paper published in the June issue of the journal Oceanography.

“Everyone thinks of Arctic climate change as this remote phenomenon that has little effect on our everyday lives,” Greene said. “But what goes on in the Arctic remotely forces our weather patterns here.”

Negative Arctic Oscillation conditions are associated with higher pressure in the Arctic and a weakened polar vortex (yellow arrows). A weakened jet stream (black arrows) is characterized by larger-amplitude meanders in its trajectory and a reduction in the wave speed of those meanders.

A warmer Earth increases the melting of sea ice during summer, exposing more dark ocean water to incoming sunlight. This causes increased absorption of solar radiation and excess summertime heating of the ocean — further accelerating the ice melt. The excess heat is released to the atmosphere, especially during the autumn, decreasing the temperature and atmospheric pressure gradients between the Arctic and middle latitudes.

A diminished latitudinal pressure gradient is linked to a weakening of the winds associated with the polar vortex and jet stream. Since the polar vortex normally retains the cold Arctic air masses up above the Arctic Circle, its weakening allows the cold air to invade lower latitudes.

The recent observations present a new twist to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) — a natural pattern of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Before humans began warming the planet, the Arctic’s climate system naturally oscillated between conditions favorable and those unfavorable for invasions of cold Arctic air.

Greene says, “What’s happening now is that we are changing the climate system, especially in the Arctic, and that’s increasing the odds for the negative AO conditions that favor cold air invasions and severe winter weather outbreaks.

“It’s something to think about given our recent history,” Greene continued. This past winter, an extended cold snap descended on central and eastern Europe in mid-January, with temperatures approaching -22 Fahrenheit and snowdrifts reaching rooftops. And, of course, there were the record snowstorms fresh in the memories of residents from several eastern U.S. cities, such as Washington, New York and Philadelphia, as well as many other parts of the Eastern Seaboard during the previous two years.

But wait — Greene and Monger’s paper is being published just after one of the warmest winters in the eastern U.S. on record. How does that relate?

“It’s a great demonstration of the complexities of our climate system and how they influence our regional weather patterns,” Greene said. In any particular region, many factors can have an influence, including the El Nino/La Nina cycle. This winter, La Nina in the Pacific shifted undulations in the jet stream so that while many parts of the Northern Hemisphere were hit by the severe winter weather patterns expected during a bout of negative AO conditions, much of the eastern United States basked in the warm tropical air that swung north with the jet stream.

“It turns out that while the eastern U.S. missed out on the cold and snow this winter, and experienced record-breaking warmth during March, many other parts of the Northern Hemisphere were not so fortunate,” Greene said.

Europe and Alaska experienced record-breaking winter storms, and the global average temperature during March 2012 was cooler than any other March since 1999.

“A lot of times people say, ‘Wait a second, which is it going to be – more snow or more warming?’ Well, it depends on a lot of factors, and I guess this was a really good winter demonstrating that,” Greene said. “What we can expect, however, is the Arctic wildcard stacking the deck in favor of more severe winter outbreaks in the future.”

19 Responses to “More Evidence: Arctic Warming Effect on Jet Stream = More Extremes”

  1. […] Arctic Warming’s Effect on the Jet Stream by Peter Sinclair […]

  2. […] Arctic Warming’s Effect on the Jet Stream by Peter Sinclair […]

  3. […] may have been caused by climate change.  One climatologist, Charles Greene of Cornell University, explains that the melting Arctic sea ice is changing weather patterns by pushing arctic cold down into lower latitudes when certain conditions are […]

  4. ericzipp Says:

    Interesting how the article doesn’t mention the fact that the changing jet stream caused the big Arctic melt in the first place. You got love how the climate disinformationists like to put the horse before the cart to make facts fit their agenda. The abbnormal northern Jet stream brought warm air into the Arctic not the other way around.

  5. […] Related DailyKos Sudden Stratospheric Warming Split the Polar Vortex in Two  (Jan 2013) ClimateCentral Stratospheric Phenomenon Is Bringing Frigid Cold to U.S  (Jan 2013) RealClimate Cold winter in a world of warming? (2010) RealClimate Arctic Warming Effect on Jet Stream = More Extremes (2010) […]

  6. […] More Evidence: Arctic Warming Effect on Jet Stream = More Extremes […]

  7. […] natural habitats ashore and warmed the ocean of air we swim through, fracturing the weather-bearing jetstream, intensifying storms, blow-torching the Arctic, and helping kill off more than half of all animal […]

  8. […] the distribution of anomalous cold, and warmth. From the University of Maine Climate Re-analyzer. A now-familiar pattern, – Eastern North America in deep freeze – unusually warm in the […]

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: