I finally caught up with James Hansen at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting in December, and he gave a terrific interview, touching on many key topics.
Here, he gives a brief synopsis of one of the most important points in his most recent paper. Hansen’s concerns, if borne out, would mean substantially higher sea level rises than most other researchers predict – but one hesitates to bet against someone with his track record.
Bucket list honor for me. I’ll be posting more excerpts from this, and many other interviews from December, in coming months – including a new video on surface temperature measures, and those much ballyhooed “adjustments” – coming (fingers crossed) next week.
“We can’t let that happen.”
BWAHAHAHAH.
More below:
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71l9lzLsBRc&w=640&h=390]
Earth is warming 50x faster than when it comes out of an ice age
A major new study includes some scary implications about how rapidly humans are changing the Earth’s climate
Recently, The Guardian reported on a significant new study published in Nature Climate Change, finding that even if we meet our carbon reduction targets and stay below the 2°C global warming threshold, sea level rise will eventually inundate many major coastal cities around the world.
20% of the world’s population will eventually have to migrate away from coasts swamped by rising oceans. Cities including New York, London, Rio de Janeiro, Cairo, Calcutta, Jakarta and Shanghai would all be submerged.
The authors looked at past climate change events and model simulations of the future. They found a clear, strong relationship between the total amount of carbon pollution humans emit, and how far global sea levels will rise. The issue is that ice sheets melt quite slowly, but because carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere for a long time, the eventual melting and associated sea level rise are effectively locked in.
As a result, the study authors found that due to the carbon pollution humans have emitted so far, we’ve committed the planet to an eventual sea level rise of 1.7 meters (5.5 feet). If we manage to stay within the 1 trillion ton carbon budget, which we hope will keep the planet below 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels, sea levels will nevertheless rise a total of about 9 meters (30 feet). If we continue on a fossil fuel-heavy path, we could trigger a staggering eventual 50 meters (165 feet) of sea level rise. …
Yes but it isn’t valid to compare the present melt rate situation with the deglaciation when there were vast northern ice sheets. I’m surprised Dr. Archer did that. Eelco R. said 2.5m / year or less with double present Earth ice from proxy & 1.0m / year or less with present Earth ice. I note that Eelco said 1.0m-2.5m / year from proxy with present Earth ice in an AGU talk and I cannot reconcile that variation between the two talks from Eelco.
Just build more iinland cities using labor in the flooded cities and buy farm land farther north in Canada. An answer?
When one presses a person in denial enough to answer the question “what would you do as a plan to mitigate AGW if you were convinced that the science is correct?”, that is often the type of answer.
Yes, a wonderful answer. That will give the 1% a wonderful opportunity to consolidate their hold on the planet, since they are the only ones who will have the $$$ to buy that farmland. And the “labor from the cities” will make wonderful serfs and “wage slaves” in the emerging corporate feudal state as they work that farmland and rebuild the cities “further inland” with steel, concrete, and asphalt made in ways that add to the CO2 burden. Wonderful wishful thinking is what it is.
“buy farm land farther north in Canada” That’s fine for us Canadians and it’s what I’m going to do. But what about poor old Mexicans and far importantly as always what about poor old U.S. of Americans. Surely they are SOL then aren’t they ? Or is there something U.S. of Americans aren’t telling me ? Some sort of “in joke”.
Yes, GUB, it’s not an “in joke”, but what we’re not telling you is that when the time comes, we will roll across our northern border and start sewing another 10 stars on the new United States of North America flag. Remember that soon-to-be-President Trump is a firm believer in eminent domain, and there can be no better use for Canada that to be added to the U.S. and properly exploited by those who are experts at plunder.
I’m glad that you appear to be one of the 1% and can afford to buy your “haven on the prairie” to hide from the coming apocalypse. Man the lifeboats—women, children, and poor people last—-rich folks first!!
And don’t worry about the “poor Mexicans”. When we come north, we will bring enough of them along to be the bottom tier wage slaves. Unless, of course, President Trump deports them all, in which case poor white and black Americans will serve as serfs for the new U.S.N.A. corporate feudal state.
Assimilation works far better. If it were me I’d simply entertain the foreigners by having my top people slack-jeweled, orange-haired and mostly arguing about their wives sitting atop an absurdly comical navel-gazing slag heap. That’ll entrance the population of country that’s insufferably dull since Rob Ford kicked the bucket. It certainly amuses and bemuses me. I suppose tanks would work because we’d think for weeks it was just the relentless torrent of U.S. American motor homes coming up, new design.
“slack-jeweled” ? Fat fingers or blindness you alarmatardalib.
Support Hansen’s 100% private carbon tax dividend plan.
100% for you, 0% for government.
Watch 4 Top Climate & Energy Scientists Tell You Why Renewable Energy Will Not Stop Climate Catastrophe
https://lokisrevengeblog.wordpress.com/2016/02/19/math-easy-english-hard/
Jim Hansen says 300,000,000 Chinese live <20m above sea level but there's "only" 12M SLR in all the ice on Greenland plus West Antarctica and much of East Antarctica is high, dry and cold. So I don't see scientific merit in Dr. Hansen pointing out that 20m above sea level and mentioning a few decades plus a few more decades in the same segment, unless he presents strong science indicating rapid glacial acceleration in East Antarctica (well, +8m SLR worth in 100 years). Apart from that, interesting, thanks.
Hansen’s point is that in ages past, when GHGs were at levels similar to today, sea level was 20 meters higher.
One of the better videos in the Crock series. It presents a lot of “strong science” about “rapid glacial acceleration” and has much “scientific merit” for anyone who is paying attention (and doesn’t want to try to deflect with some foolishness about “but, but—what about EAST Antarctica?”)
Considering how many people live close to the shores and how many cities are in danger of inundation from even a few feet of SLR, anyone who ignores what 20M (or 10M or even 5M) of SLR can do is in a state of extreme denial.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/08/20/these-20-cities-have-the-most-to-lose-from-rising-sea-levels/
No. The timing is relevant.
WHAT timing is relevant to WHAT?
And “So I don’t see scientific merit in Dr. Hansen pointing out that 20m above sea level and mentioning a few decades plus a few more decades in the same segment, unless he presents strong science indicating rapid glacial acceleration in East Antarctica (well, +8m SLR worth in 100 years)” is a classic illustration of opinionated maundering that doesn’t seem to have much “scientific merit”. Just because you may not be here when the SHTF is no reason to dismiss the “merit” of Hansen’s thoughts on what will be the beginning of very hard times for the human race.
You really need to do more study on ice melting and SLR—-Mountain glaciers as well as Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets.
The topic of my comment. Iceberg discharge acceleration rate net of whatever snowfall anomaly and the century of 20m SLR..