UPDATE: Take a look at the Japan Meteorological Agency’s graph for August Temperatures
14 September 2015 – Regional temperature and rainfall worldwide will be affected by big changes that are underway in key global climate system
New research shows regional temperature and rainfall worldwide will be affected by big changes that are underway in key patterns in the global climate system.
The latest climate predictions and global observations suggest that shifts in key global climate patterns, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), an El Niño in the tropical Pacific and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) are underway. They are implicated in the weak Indian monsoon and relatively inactive Atlantic hurricane season this year and will affect regional temperature and rainfall worldwide in coming years. They also affect global temperature; with a warming influence from El Nino and positive PDO, and a cooling from a negative AMO.
Professor Adam Scaife said: “Although we can’t say for sure that the slowdown in global warming is over, global temperatures are now rising again.”
These changes suggest both 2015 and 2016 are likely to be very warm globally. Earth’s average surface temperature is running at or near record levels so far in 2015 at 0.38±0.14°C* above the 1981-2010 average (0.68±0.14 °C above the 1961-1990 average). The observations of exceptional global temperature this year agree well with the Met Office forecast issued in 2014.
Head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, Professor Stephen Belcher said: “We know natural patterns contribute to global temperature in any given year, but the very warm temperatures so far this year indicate the continued impact of increasing greenhouse gases. With the potential that next year could be similarly warm, it’s clear that our climate continues to change.”
These changes are consistent with a return of rapid warming in the near term. Professor Scaife continued: “We can’t be sure this is the end of the slowdown but decadal warming rates are likely to reach late 20th century levels within two years.”
Further long-term warming is expected over the coming decades, but the patterns described in this report will continue to vary the pace of that warming.
A decade-long hiatus in the acceleration of global temperature increases has come to an end, experts say.
Man-made global warming is set to produce exceptionally high average temperatures this year and next, boosted by natural weather phenomena such as El Nino, Britain’s top climate and weather body said in a report Monday.
“It looks very likely that globally 2014, 2015 and 2016 will all be amongst the very warmest years ever recorded,” Rowan Sutton of the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, which contributed to the report, told journalists.
“This is not a fluke,” he said. “We are seeing the effects of energy steadily accumulating in the Earth’s oceans and atmosphere, caused by greenhouse gas emissions.”
The world’s climate has reached a major turning point and is set to deliver record-breaking global temperatures in 2015 and 2016, according to a new report from the UK Met Office.
Natural climate cycles in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are reversing and will amplify the strong manmade-driven global warming, the report concludes. This will change weather patterns around the world including more heatwaves, but it is possible that the UK will actually have cooler summers.
“We will look back on this period as an important turning point,” said Professor Adam Scaife, who led the Met Office analysis. “That is why we are emphasising it, because there are so many big changes happening at once. This year and next year are likely to be at, or near, record levels of warming.”
The record for the hottest year was broken in 2014, when heatwaves scorched China, Russia, Australia and parts of South America. But, despite rising greenhouse gas emissions continuing to trap more heat on Earth, the last decade has seen relatively slow warming of air temperatures, dubbed a “pause” in climate change by some.
In fact, global warming had not paused at all. Instead, natural climate cycles led to more of the trapped heat being stored in the oceans. Now, according to the Met Office report, all the signs are that the pause in rising air temperatures is over and the rate of global warming will accelerate fast in coming years.
The warning comes ahead of a crunch UN summit in Paris in November at which the world’s nations must hammer out a deal to halt climate change. Opponents of action to curb climate change have cited the pause as a reason to reject urgent cuts in carbon emissions.
BBC: Next two years hottest, says Met Office
Depressing, isn’t it 🙁