For those of us fixated on whether 2014 will be the hottest year on record, the results are in. At least, we know enough that we can make the call. According theglobal data from NOAA, 2014 will be the hottest year ever recorded.
I can make this pronouncement even before the end of the year because each month, I collect daily global average temperatures. So far, December is running about 0.5°C above the average. The climate and weather models predict that the next week will be about 0.75°C above average. This means, December will come in around 0.6°C above average. Are these daily values accurate? Well the last two months they have been within 0.05°C of the final official results.
What does this all mean? Well, when I combine December with the year-to-date as officially reported, I predict the annual temperature anomaly will be 0.674°C. This beats the prior record by 0.024°C. That is a big margin in terms of global temperatures.
For those of us who are not fixated on whether any individual year is a record but are more concerned with trends, this year is still important. Particularly because according to those who deny the basic physics and our understanding of climate change, this year wasn’t supposed to be particularly warm.
For those who thought that climate change was “natural” and driven by ocean currents, this has been a tough year. For instance, using NOAA standards, this year didn’t even have an El Niño. NOAA defines an El Niño as 5 continuous/overlapping 3-month time periods wherein a particular region in the Pacific has temperatures elevated more than 0.5oC.
NOAA is more cautious, but with most of December behind us, an announcement seems imminent.
With November’s temperature numbers in the books, 2014 is on track to be the hottest year ever recorded, newly released data from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show.
During the month, the patterns that have been in place for much of the year held fast: While the eastern U.S. was plunged into a deep freeze, the world as a whole continued warming, fueled by the rise of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
November didn’t set a global warm mark (as August, September and October did), in part because oceans cooled slightly and because of the cold that covered much of North America, said Jessica Blunden, a climate scientist with ERT, Inc., at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center. But the month still came in 1.17°F above average, according to both NOAA and NASA records. That’s enough to keep the year on track to set the record.
The 11 months of the year to date are the hottest such period on record, according to NOAA, coming in at 1.22°F above the 20th century average of 57°F. For 2014 to set the mark, Blunden said it would need to be only around the 18th warmest December on record, which is a definite possibility.
Let’s call this the the Xmas present nobody wanted.
1998, apart from being buoyed by a record El Nino also happened on the upswing of Solar Cycle 23, about 1.5 years before the peak so all of that year was during a period of higher insolation.
In contrast, we are nearly 2 years past the peak of the weakest Solar Cycle in over a century, and our new record is set in a neutral year??
Doesn’t bode well for the next strong El Nino coinciding with the upswing of a more typical solar year.
It is looking a certainty that 2014 will be the hottest year on modern day records and that is no surprise, anyone with simple spreadsheet graphics can see the clear upward trend (the data is freely available). The +2°C will be reached (and overtaken) later this century unless we (collectively) take the required urgent corrective action. We know that long term trends are more important than individual years, it’s just people like David Rose and other contrarians keep trying to downplay the rise showing us short term download trends, that makes us more determined to publicize it.
2014 is just one tiny step in the new normal, What will 2015 bring as the El Nino intensifies ? 2020..2030..2050..2100
Norway will undoubtedly set a new record. The region I live in has certainly had the warmest year ever:
http://norwaytoday.info/home_view.php?id=13773
“The mean temperature for Norway as a whole is 3.4 degrees above the normal, while for Western Norway it is 5.4 degrees over…”
apparently the FT has an article on this having been the warmest year in Europe in 500 years. Can’t read it though.
Yes – I can believe that.
Why don’t you try The Daily Mail instead – they don’t use big words.
Here’s a CNBC mirror of the FT article – http://www.cnbc.com/id/102275124
Don’t go to the comment section without headgear on. There’s everything from NWO to “no thermometers x years ago to “cooling for the next 30 years”
I blame the education system.
I believe your Danish neighbors are also having a recordbreaking year and Sweden has seen heat records 60-90 years old come tumbling down, but not clear if the overall year is going to be a hottest ever.
Does anyone know if this was a very warm year for Finland?
Peter’s posts at such an industrious pace, not sure if this post will be read, but I just read an interesting report from the University of Eastern Finland that the temperature in Finland has risen by 2 degrees (Celsius) and is accelerating. Thought I’d better post it here.
Over the past 166 years, the average temperature in Finland has risen by more than two degrees. During the observation period, the average increase was 0.14 degrees per decade, which is nearly twice as much as the global average.
http://tinyurl.com/kk5v9c5
“It’s not slowing down,” he said. “It’s looking bad.”
http://www.rtcc.org/2014/12/22/fast-finland-warming-means-blue-christmas-for-santa/
“0.024°C. That is a big margin in terms of global temperatures.”
erm erm erm
uncertainty was 10 times bigger in 2008
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/docs/smith-et-al-2008.pdf
maybe there’s been an update?
Now tell us how many Greenland ice sheets can be melted by the energy that is contained in and represented by that 0.024°C of global temperature.
Assume:
Mass of the GIS 2.6379×10¹⁸ kg with an average temperature of -20°C.
Specific heat capacity of ice: 2,030 J kg⁻¹ K⁻¹
Specific heat of fusion of ice: 333,550 J kg⁻¹
Thanks MorinMoss for the link. This is strangely mostly news only for the FT.
Andy- please stick to the reported level. I find it impossible to believe anyone in the general public will be impressed by 2.4 100th of a degree being a “big margin”. They’ll be likely thinking climate change the realm of small numbers.
BTW science free Abraham has once again forgot all about uncertainty. That won’t impress the techies either.
You’ll need a new meme.
Or will you hang out your sign with “No global warming for 0 years”?