Above, Sandy from the Space Station, video sped up 500 percent.
Update from Paul Douglas:
Hurricane Sandy remains a potent threat, even though it has weakened slightly overnight, to a Category 1 storm. Little has changed in terms of forecast track or intensity; a majority of weather models continuing to pull a hybrid Hurricane Sandy – severe Nor’easter into the Mid Atlantic coast by late Monday or early Tuesday of next week.
A couple of points: Sandy is forecast to mutate into a huge storm, with gale force (50 mph) winds cover a 500 mile radius, which is nearly unprecedented. Hurricane-force winds may impact an area 150 to 200 miles wide, on either side of Sandy’s track. There will be significant beach erosion and coastal flooding. Extreme flooding is possible at high tide, and a full moon will complicate matters.
I want to underscore the risk posed by inland flooding. Sandy will be a prodigious rain-maker, with some 6-10” rainfall amounts well inland, capable of severe flash flooding 1-2 days after landfall.
The Navy NOGAPS simulation shows an intense “Frankenstorm” hybrid approaching the coast of Delaware or south Jersey Monday morning and midday, severe flooding from the Delaware Valley southward to D.C. and the Tidewater of Virginia.
Worst-Case For New York City. The GFS model suggests landfall closer to New York City and northern New Jersey on Tuesday, a long fetch of high winds over the Atlantic capable of creating a 10-15 foot storm surge for Long Island, with 5-10 foot surges into New York Harbor. This is a possibility, but right now we believe the odds of this happening are less than 1 in 3, with landfall farther south, from Atlantic City to Ocean City, Maryland. Today we will be looking for any signs that models are nudging Monday landfall farther north, closer to New York City.
