The S-Curve of technology advancement is explained in my new video, by Tony Seba and Jonathan Koomey, both energy experts. But the idea is not a new one. See below video.
Many people suggest that rates of new product introduction and adoption are speeding up, but is it really, across the board? The answer seems to be yes. An automobile industry trade consultant, for instance, observes that “Today, a typical automotive design cycle is approximately 24 to 36 months, which is much faster than the 60-month life cycle from five years ago.” The chart below, created by Nicholas Felton of the New York Times, shows how long it took various categories of product, from electricity to the Internet, to achieve different penetration levels in US households. It took decades for the telephone to reach 50% of households, beginning before 1900. It took five years or less for cellphones to accomplish the same penetration in 1990. As you can see from the chart, innovations introduced more recently are being adopted more quickly. By analogy, firms with competitive advantages in those areas will need to move faster to capture those opportunities that present themselves.
New Video: Climate Action is our Moon Shot
May 25, 2021
On this day, 60 years ago, May 25, 1961, John Kennedy challenged America to put a man on the moon before the end of that decade.
Though the technologies needed to achieve that goal had only been envisioned, not yet built, bold expert engineers thought the goal was within reach, and that the alternative, of ceding Cold War technological supremacy to the Soviet Union, was not acceptable.
Similarly today, President Biden has set goals for climate action that some feel are too optimistic. In our case the technologies needed are fully available already, with more improvements sure to come.
ABC News Report 2010: First They Came for the Climate Scientists – Hate, Intimidation Nothing New
January 9, 2021
This whole process of degrading truth had spreading hatred against those that tell it, is not new to climate scientists.
Below, comment on one of my video threads, about 10 years ago. Note poster’s screen name.
They moved on to threats against Michigan’s Governor, then Georgia’s Secretary of State.
Now they’re threatening Mike Pence, and any Republican who is considered “disloyal”.
UPDATE: Marc Morano, who follows me obsessively, responded to this post almost instantly on twitter, below.
Read the rest of this entry »New Book: Mike Mann on the New Climate War
December 17, 2020
I’ve been reading an advance copy of Mike Mann’s new book, The New Climate War, which will be out in January.
Anyone wishing to have as up-to-date summary of the battle over climate as possible, could hardly do better than this book. Dr. Mann’s narrative is urgent, insightful, and accurate, and I know that because I’ve been following closely nearly every step of the story as he tells it.
Dr. Mann has been one of my key mentors on all aspects of climate science, and with his long time, hard-won experience (see below) as a target for climate deniers of all stripes, he has the perspective to bring the big picture into sharp focus.
A renowned climate scientist shows how fossil fuel companies have waged a thirty-year campaign to deflect blame and responsibility and delay action on climate change, and offers a battle plan for how we can save the planet.
Recycle. Fly less. Eat less meat. These are some of the ways that we’ve been told can slow climate change. But the inordinate emphasis on individual behavior is the result of a marketing campaign that has succeeded in placing the responsibility for fixing climate change squarely on the shoulders of individuals.
Fossil fuel companies have followed the example of other industries deflecting blame (think “guns don’t kill people, people kill people”) or greenwashing (think of the beverage industry’s “Crying Indian” commercials of the 1970s). Meanwhile, they’ve blocked efforts to regulate or price carbon emissions, run PR campaigns aimed at discrediting viable alternatives, and have abdicated their responsibility in fixing the problem they’ve created. The result has been disastrous for our planet.
In The New Climate War, Mann argues that all is not lost. He draws the battle lines between the people and the polluters-fossil fuel companies, right-wing plutocrats, and petrostates. And he outlines a plan for forcing our governments and corporations to wake up and make real change, including:
- a common-sense, attainable approach to carbon pricing- and a revision of the well-intentioned but flawed currently proposed version of the Green New Deal;
- allowing renewable energy to compete fairly against fossil fuels
- debunking the false narratives and arguments that have worked their way into the climate debate and driven a wedge between even those who support climate change solutions
- combatting climate doomism and despair-mongering
With immensely powerful vested interests aligned in defense of the fossil fuel status quo, the societal tipping point won’t happen without the active participation of citizens everywhere aiding in the collective push forward. This book will reach, inform, and enable citizens everywhere to join this battle for our planet.
Then: Ken Cuccinelli was the Attorney General of Virginia and running for Governor. He relentlessly (but unsuccessfully) attacked a leading climate scientist, Michael Mann.
Now: Same guy, working in the Department of Homeland Security, when he’s not ripping babies from their mother’s arms, is trying to cover up intelligence about Russian attacks on our elections.
Lesson: Once you’ve betrayed your children, betraying your country is a snap.
Paul Waldman and Greg Sargent in Washington Post:
Read the rest of this entry »House Democrats just released a complaint from a new whistleblower at the Department of Homeland Security. It makes a series of extraordinary charges about senior DHS officials seeking to manipulate intelligence to boost Trump politically.
The complaint from the whistleblower, Brian Murphy, a senior official at DHS’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis, claims intense pressure was brought to bear to hype the threat of leftist violence. The complaint says two top DHS officials — acting DHS secretary Chad Wolf and deputy Ken Cuccinelli — halted the distribution of a Homeland Threat Assessment because of how it “would reflect upon President Trump.”
“Two sections were specifically labeled as concerns: White Supremacy and Russian influence in the United States,” the complaint continues.
On Russian influence, the complaint says, Wolf ordered Murphy in May 2020 to report on efforts by China and Iran to interfere in our election, and to “cease providing intelligence assessments on the threat of Russian interference.”
Incredibly, the complaint says Murphy “would not comply with these instructions, as doing so would put the country in substantial and specific danger.”
Climate Denial Crock of the Week 