A Long Night in Florida

September 28, 2022

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“…Maybe government isn’t going to get their act together and do this,…Insurance companies may do it for them.”

Ian a Monster

September 28, 2022

Ian Approaches

September 27, 2022

UPDATE:

Mechanism here

We don’t need to be held hostage. We have a choice.

Reuters:

STOCKHOLM/COPENHAGEN, Sept 27 (Reuters) – Europe was racing on Tuesday to investigate possible sabotage behind sudden and unexplained leaks in two Russian gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea, infrastructure at the heart of an energy crisis since Russia invaded Ukraine.

Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said the leaks were caused by sabotage, while Denmark’s prime minister and Russia, which slashed its gas deliveries to Europe after Western sanctions, said it could not be ruled out. But who might be behind any foul play, if proven, and a motive were far from clear.

Sweden’s Maritime Authority issued a warning about two leaks in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, the day after a leak on the nearby Nord Stream 2 pipeline was discovered that prompted Denmark to restrict shipping and impose a small no fly zone.

Both pipelines have been flashpoints in an escalating energy war between European capitals and Moscow that has pummelled major Western economies, sent gas prices soaring and sparked a hunt for alternative energy supplies.

“Today we faced an act of sabotage, we don’t know all the details of what happened, but we see clearly that it’s an act of sabotage, related to the next step of escalation of the situation in Ukraine,” Mateusz Morawiecki said during the opening of a new pipeline between Norway and Poland.

Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said sabotage could not be ruled out. “We are talking about three leaks with some distance between them, and that’s why it is hard to imagine that it is a coincidence,” she said.

Ian Update September 27

September 27, 2022

Report from Tampa Bay TV station with latest track and update.

It’s not great. Still forecast to slow to a crawl as it transitions onto wherever it makes landfall, enhancing rain impact while piling up storm surge at the coast.

Andrea Dutton and Michael Mann in Tampa Bay Times, Nov. 12, 2019:

The Florida peninsula bravely occupies the space between the warm, salty Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Stream. On one hand, the warm waters offshore are responsible for the humid and verdant environment that Florida enjoys (it sits at latitudes more commonly associated with deserts). On the other hand, Florida’s geography leaves it vulnerable to attack by hurricanes from either side.

In October 2018 Hurricane Michael veered north of Tampa Bay but left a swath of devastation through the Florida panhandle, becoming the first Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the United States in decades and the latest ever in the season to landfall as a Cat 5. Earlier this year, Florida fell squarely in the uncertainty cone of Dorian, tied for the strongest-ever Atlantic hurricane to make landfall. Fortunately for Florida, the storm missed the peninsula once again. Another bullet dodged.

But as storms intensify with global warming, dangerous storms are not a matter of “if” but “when.” Two years ago, one of us (Michael) lectured in the historic town of New Bern, N.C., warning residents it was just a matter of time before they experienced their “Katrina.” Fatefully, less than a year later the church he spoke in was submerged by the storm surge of Hurricane Florence — another storm supercharged by climate change.

Tampa Bay has dodged multiple bullets in recent years — major hurricanes headed its way that ultimately weakened or swerved away. Its low topography combined with relentlessly rising sea levels, more frequent major hurricanes and vulnerable infrastructure, nonetheless make Tampa Bay a sitting duck, ever more vulnerable to deadly storm surges like those that swept over coastal North Carolina with Florence and the Bahamas with Dorian.

Our warming planet is creating a perfect storm for tropical storms. Heated oceans intensify hurricanes into Cat 5 monsters. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, yielding heavier rainfall. Stronger winds create stronger storm surge, combining with inland rainfall to yield catastrophic “compound flooding.” These trends will only worsen if we continue to burn fossil fuels and generate carbon pollution.

Some claim we can “just adapt.” But after viewing pictures in the Bahamas post-Dorian, where building codes are far stricter than ours, one wonders how the infrastructure in Florida will hold up.

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