New Global Heat Records Already Baked In

May 17, 2023

If you’ve ever pondered whether you should get seriously involved in supporting efforts to save a livable planet – now would be a good time to jump in.

United Nations:

There is a 66 per cent likelihood that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027, will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year.

And there is a 98 per cent likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period, will be the warmest on record.

“A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” he said.

“This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared,” said Petteri Taalas.

  • Typically, El Niño increases global temperatures in the year after it develops, in this case, that means 2024.
  • There is a 98 per cent chance of at least one in the next five years beating the temperature record set in 2016, when there was an exceptionally strong El Niño.
  • Arctic warming is disproportionately high. Compared to the 1991-2020 average, the temperature anomaly is predicted to be more than three times as large as the global expected anomaly when considering the next five northern hemisphere extended winters.
  • Predicted rain patterns for the May to September 2023-2027 average, compared to the 1991-2020 average, suggest increased rainfall in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and reduced rainfall for this season over the Amazon and parts of Australia.


Our overheating world is likely to break a key temperature limit for the first time over the next few years, scientists predict. 

Researchers say there’s now a 66% chance we will pass the 1.5C global warming threshold between now and 2027.

The chances are rising due to emissions from human activities and a change in weather patterns expected this summer.

If the world passes the limit, scientists stress the breach, while worrying, will likely be temporary.

Hitting the threshold would mean the world is 1.5C warmer than it was during the second half of the 19th Century, before fossil fuel emissions from industrialisation really began to ramp up.

And breaking the limit even for just one year is a worrying sign that warming is accelerating and not slowing down. 

The 1.5C figure has become a symbol of global climate change negotiations. Countries agreed to “pursue efforts” to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C under the 2015 Paris agreement.

Going over 1.5C every year for a decade or two would see far greater impacts of warming, such as longer heatwaves, more intense storms and wildfires. 

But passing the level in one of the next few years would not mean that the Paris limit had been broken. Scientists say there is still time to restrict global warming by cutting emissions sharply.


6 Responses to “New Global Heat Records Already Baked In”

  1. rhymeswithgoalie Says:

    Scientists say there is still time to restrict global warming by cutting emissions sharply.

    Climate scientists should meet with behavioral scientists to calculate how likely that is to happen.


  2. James W. Crissman Says:

    So fucking depressing. And so necessary to understand.

  3. I keep up my own timeserie from Climate Ranalyzer and they come to a average for the past four years temperature anomaly global of 0.387° C for the basisperiod 1979-2000. There are a few extremes for global peaks to up 1,06° C. There is till a way to go for 1,5° C tempersture anomaly global on average has become the norm. It is going fast the last decade, this much is true but one should not overeact.

    • Gingerbaker Says:

      1.5C is based on the year 1850, not 1979. And why should we care about your particular analysis? There are experts who do this for their real job.

      • @Gingerbaker,

        These are not my analyses. I just use them for my blog. The analyses I refer to has been used many times on this blog and are the work of professionals. They come from Climate Reanalyzer dot org. But you are right, the basisperiod from climate reanlayzer 1979-2000 is different from 1850-1900 wich is used by Berkely. You have to correct for this. Something to do in my spare time. S we are closer to the 1.5 degree as in the Climate treaty of Paris. Maybe we may have breached it alreraady. Time to find out.

        • Ron Benenati Says:

          oh, we will. As have so many people who’s homes, communities, crops and wilderness, water resources, et al. have been and are currently being destroyed.

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