Driverless EVs Still Working Out Bugs in San Francisco

May 14, 2023

Posted by greenman3610
Filed in Crock of the Week

8 Comments »

8 Responses to “Driverless EVs Still Working Out Bugs in San Francisco”

jimbills Says:

May 15, 2023 at 11:07 am
We’re at the halfway mark for Seba’s prediction video that has been posted here many times (dated 4-5-16, predicting all new sale vehicles globally, including tractors, will be EV by 2030, self-driving cars will be a primary driver of this, parking lots in cities will be a thing of the past):

Let’s look at some headlines:

How Ford and VW’s multibillion-dollar self-driving car project failed
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/22/how-ford-and-vws-multibillion-dollar-self-driving-car-project-failed.html

(More links follow.)

The problem with predictions like this isn’t that they won’t ever happen, it’s that unless the predicter accounts for every variable (impossible for any single human) firm timelines are mostly going to be nonsense. Seba’s the technologist version of a libertarian. He takes theory as literal and infallible truth (prices drop, Moore’s Law, therefore….) without incorporating the simple fact that we live in a physical world (requiring resources, supply chains, international stability, etc.) with human foibles and politics. There are -always- going to be stumbling blocks from a wide variety of avenues.

The ‘Tech Bros’ thing, related to this topic, is a bit enraging to me. It’s like these people think it’s already happened – we’ve already moved past rising emissions into the glorious techno-utopia future. Maybe it has in their minds. But in reality, we’re a long and very messy way from it.

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- jimbills Says:
  
  May 15, 2023 at 11:07 am
  Report: Uber, Lyft are major sources of gridlock, pollution in SF
  https://missionlocal.org/2023/04/report-uber-lyft-contributed-massively-to-sf-gridlock-pollution/
  
  Are EV sales declining? Electrifying the car market may be getting harder. Here’s why
  https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2023/05/08/ev-sales-2023-slowing/70188358007/
  
  Reply
  - rhymeswithgoalie Says:
    
    May 15, 2023 at 4:52 pm
    It would be interesting to see a ride-hailing or cab service based only on plugin vehicles. EVs have the biggest win for us city folk, who would otherwise be getting 0 mpg while spewing CO2 at every stoplight or traffic snarl.
    
    Reply
  - rhymeswithgoalie Says:
    
    May 15, 2023 at 5:03 pm
    Of course someone already has an ecab business:
    https://ecabna.com/drive-for-ecab
    
    Reply
- jimbills Says:
  
  May 15, 2023 at 11:14 am
  Business Owners Furious at San Francisco Plan To Rip Out Parking Spaces
  https://sfstandard.com/business/business-owners-furious-at-san-francisco-plan-to-rip-out-parking-spaces/
  
  Looking for parking? This San Francisco spot will run you a cool $90,000
  https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2022/09/09/parking-spot-90000-san-francisco-california/8033821001/
  
  Reply
- rhymeswithgoalie Says:
  
  May 15, 2023 at 3:51 pm
  Well, not self-driving, but a good application for self-driving:
  A Ukrainian farmer stripped pieces off wrecked Russian tanks to make an armored, remote-controlled, mine-sweeping tractor
  
  https://www.businessinsider.com/ukrainian-farmer-mine-sweeping-tractor-wrecked-russian-tanks-2023-5
  
  Reply
- rhymeswithgoalie Says:
  
  May 15, 2023 at 4:42 pm
  Seba’s S-curve works for new consumer products, but a car is a big purchase. On top of that, an EV doesn’t really add much in terms of new functionality, as the first cars and color TVs and refrigerators and cellphones did. I think the ‘S’ will be spread over a somewhat longer timeline because of that.
  
  Of course, if legacy automakers started to make a committed shift to PHEVs and EVs, along with the associated advertising, that might goose the adoption rate.
  
  I do think we’ll see significant accelerated conversion in the next seven years.
  
  Reply
Anthony O'Brien Says:

May 15, 2023 at 7:38 pm
The US still cannot see past the car. Anything that can be construed to be anti car is immediately vilified. But if you make other options viable, then conditions actually improve for car drivers.

If you have priority lanes for busses and busses are quicker than cars, then people will migrate to busses. Then the other lanes are free and cars speed up too. Win win.

Walkable cities have much higher real estate values compared to non walkable. But suggest walkable cities and get howled down. Mixed use suburbs work, but no corner shops allowed in your country. You will never know the joy of wandering a few hundred meters to grab a coffee, say hello to a few acquaintances and then spend 5 minutes getting tonight’s meal ingredients. Nope you would rather spend an hour driving half a mile to Walmart. My coffee shop knows my tastes, sometimes better than I do. Shove your Starbucks.

Americans are addicted to gridlock and just will not see any other option.

Big is not better. Yes I gave in an d brought a car, but it is a little one and so very easy to park. Leaves room in the garage for other stuff. And my fuel consumption is far less than your monster PHEVs.

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