Scientist’s Letter Warns of Risk of Societal Collapse Due to Climate Change

March 27, 2023

Of all the climate calamities of the past year, Pakistan’s intense flooding is the starkest warning of the vulnerability of global society to the crumbling of some of it’s least privileged members.
Pakistan is a populous, nuclear armed country in a volatile region, with a history of political instability, and internal tension between extreme political and religious factions. And it is climate change ground zero.


As scientists and scholars from around the world, we call on policymakers to engage with the risk of disruption and even collapse of societies. After five years failing to reduce emissions in line with the Paris climate accord, we must now face the consequences. While bold and fair efforts to cut emissions and naturally drawdown carbon are essential, researchers in many areas consider societal collapse a credible scenario this century. Different views exist on the location, extent, timing, permanence and cause of disruptions, but the way modern societies exploit people and nature is a common concern.

Only if policymakers begin to discuss this threat of societal collapse might we begin to reduce its likelihood, speed, severity, harm to the most vulnerable – and to nature.

Some armed services already see collapse as an important scenario. Surveys show many people now anticipate societal collapse. Sadly, that is the experience of many communities in the global south. However, it is not well reported in the media, and mostly absent from civil society and politics. People who care about environmental and humanitarian issues should not be discouraged from discussing the risks of societal disruption or collapse. Ill-informed speculations about impacts on mental health and motivation will not support serious discussion. That risks betraying thousands of activists whose anticipation of collapse is part of their motivation to push for change on climate, ecology and social justice.

Some of us believe that a transition to a new society may be possible. That will involve bold action to reduce damage to the climate, nature and society, including preparations for disruptions to everyday life. We are united in regarding efforts to suppress discussion of collapse as hindering the possibility of that transition.

We have experienced how emotionally challenging it is to recognise the damage being done, along with the growing threat to our own way of life. We also know the great sense of fellowship that can arise. It is time to have these difficult conversations, so we can reduce our complicity in the harm, and make the best of a turbulent future.
Prof Gesa Weyhenmeyer Uppsala UniversityProf Will Steffen Australian National University, Prof Kai Chan Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Prof Marjolein Visser Université Libre de Bruxelles, Prof Yin Paradies Deakin University, Prof Saskia SassenColumbia University, Prof Ye Tao Harvard University, Prof Aled Jones Anglia Ruskin University, Dr Peter Kalmus Climate scientist, Dr Yves Cochet Former French minister of the environment, Dr Marie-Claire Pierret University of Strasbourg, the Very Rev Dr Frances Ward St Michael’s church and 246 others


3 Responses to “Scientist’s Letter Warns of Risk of Societal Collapse Due to Climate Change”

  1. Gingerbaker Says:

    Hoo boy. 😦

  2. gmrmt Says:

    Off topic but I can’t help noticing how much coastline India has in relation to its’ size. Just how vulnerable is it in relation to sea level rise?

  3. neilrieck Says:

    Not sure how this is becoming new news. Most of this stuff was spelled out in the 2008 book “Climate Wars” by Gwynne Dyer which was based (in part) upon interviews with military planners at the Pentagon.

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