Why Did Media Get the Election So Wrong?

November 9, 2022

No surprise that the mainstream media not only did a terrible job in the run up to the election, but completely verified the perception that I and others have formed over decades of close observations – that groupthink, inertia, both-siding, me-too reporting, coupled with a (now) obvious Republican operation to game and distort the polling. Clearly this was done both to suppress the Democratic vote, but also to set up the “we were robbed” narrative that fits with the “Big Lie” subtext that has been weaponized since January 6.

Above, interview with two guys who got it right – Simon Rosenberg and Tom Bonier. Worth your time in the analysis of media’s vulnerability to the same kind of tactics that Russia and other bad actors have been using to distort America’s political process.

“Biden over performed in the political space and underperformed in the communication space.”

“(The media) were getting played, they knew they were getting played, but they couldn’t figure out a way out of it.”

“This felt a little bit like the Russian disinformation in the 2016 election…the media knew this stuff was coming from Russia, …
but they continued to report on it, because the Republicans were talking about it.”

Of course, it wouldn’t be the first time that media sources we would like to respect have sent extremely misleading messages immediately before a critical election.


2 Responses to “Why Did Media Get the Election So Wrong?”

  1. ecoquant Says:

    Simple: Insufficient use of pre-vetted quantitative data.

  2. jimbills Says:

    I’m not sure why you’re upset at the media. They are definitely guilty of groupthink and other things you say, but everything I saw on pre-election predictions was a rough 50/50 the Republicans capture the Senate, they definitely get the House, Fetterman leads PA by a couple of points, and Georgia is too close to call. Seems fairly accurate.

    Fox News predicted a ‘Red Hurricane’, which was certainly wrong. Democrats worried they’d lose in a big way, and while they lost ground, it certainly wasn’t a wipeout. In Texas, though, Beto lost by more than was predicted. Even the corrupt Paxton won by 10%.

    In most states Democratic turnout, especially with young voters, was good!:

    It hardly seems like the vote was suppressed. The Democrats SHOULD have lost in a huge way – the first midterms for an incumbent President’s party are normally a slaughterhouse, as it was for Trump, Obama, and Clinton. It wasn’t for Biden, though, despite historical lows in approval ratings, and I don’t think it was his personal charisma. It’ll be analyzed for a while, but I’m guessing it’s mostly the abortion issue and residual anger at Trump that kept the Democrat voter turnout up.

    You should be happy! Michigan was great news for the Democrats – even capturing the state assembly. For me, personally, I’m relieved, because my worst fear was that the super crazies like Doug Mastriano and Kristina Karamo would win, signalling to Trump that his path to 2024 is free and clear. Many of the Trump toadies lost, which puts Trump in a bad place. He wanted to announce his candidacy at this past Monday’s J.D. Vance rally, but his advisors told him to wait (worried that he’d spoil the election results) and he put it off until a ‘big announcement’ on November 15th. Now, it’s looking like he won’t even announce it then. All of this to me is like a best case scenario for this election.

    But still, bottom line, the Democrats have almost certainly lost the House, which means Biden’s legislative abilities are effectively dead, and also means McCarthy gets to put on a series of mock trials about Hunter Biden and so on. Dodobirds like Ron Johnson won. J.D. Vance won. There were also a few election deniers that won key races that could affect the 2024 election. These things will cause serious pain to the Democratic agenda (and any kind of fight against climate change in Congress).

    I’d suggest not paying attention to Youtube analysis. It’s a serious rabbit hole, with absolutely zero vetting or accountability. It works by rewarding content creators with views instead of accuracy, all but assuring sensationalism over quality. The mainstream media has certainly declined in the past decades as far as objectivity and reality-based reporting – but it’s a big mistake to head to social media as an alternative, a place where objectivity and reality are penalized instead of rewarded. Social media is a BIG reason why voters are misinformed in large numbers – far more so than the MM.

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