Ian Bringing 12 to 18 Foot Storm Surge

September 28, 2022

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5 Responses to “Ian Bringing 12 to 18 Foot Storm Surge”

  1. neilrieck Says:

    Now that annual sea level rise has accelerated to 3.9 mm per year, larger storm surges will accompany every hurricane, tropical storm or high tide. Remember that sea level rise is vertical while beaches are sloped.

    https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150192/tracking-30-years-of-sea-level-rise

  2. afeman Says:

    This is weirdly close to one of the “gray swan” scenarios from that Emanuel paper:

    https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/109495

    • rhymeswithgoalie Says:

      The discussion of a “worst case scenario” is all very dramatic and a necessary thought experiment, but it’s out at the tiny end of probability, whereas the “not the worst but a really, really horrible scenario” is a lot higher probability.

      Something like Ian will impoverish a lot of people who previously thought of themselves as middle class, and trigger the death spiral of a lot of communities that will never rebuild a tax base out of collapsing property values.

  3. jimbills Says:

    Pretty accurate prediction from the Weather Channel:

  4. jimbills Says:

    [video src="https://vp.nyt.com/video/2022/09/28/102670_1_28vid-Ian-Satellite-landfall_wg_480p.mp4" /]


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