Model: Ian Could Stall Off Florida

September 26, 2022

12z GFS forecasting the absolute worst case scenario with #Ian making landfall near Tampa at/near major hurricane status and then stalling for over 24 hours near the area.

This would bring cataclysmic surge, massive rain totals and subject the area to extreme wind damage. pic.twitter.com/xo130l7MJS
— Colin McCarthy (@US_Stormwatch) September 26, 2022

Euro is closing in to a fairly close scenario- pic.twitter.com/ZrmD0DpWd6
— Eric Burris (@EricBurrisWESH) September 26, 2022

We’ve seen “stalling” behavior in several recent storms that caused massive damages in the Atlantic basin. This behavior might be related to slower moving jet stream systems, which many scientists link to melting arctic ice and climate change in general.

Recent examples include Harvey in 2017, which settled over Houston for several days, dropping in some cases 5 feet of rain, as well as 2018’s Florence in the Carolinas, and Dorian in 2019, which maintained Cat 5 strength while sitting on top of the Bahamas for almost 2 days.

It was the topic of my video from 2019.

Big storm surge numbers coming out with the 11 AM ET Monday, Sep 26 advisory from @NHC_Surge north of Sarasota, including Tampa Bay and Clearwater north to Tarpon Springs. Up to 10 feet of surge flooding possible with what's expected to be a large, slow-moving Hurricane #Ian pic.twitter.com/Rg0JoaSyFd
— Michael Lowry (@MichaelRLowry) September 26, 2022

Latest NHC forecast for #Ian is one of those things that makes your stomach turn as a meteorologist.

Slow-moving expanding major hurricane right off Tampa w/the city/bay located in the strong right-front quadrant with favorable fetch is extremely concerning for major storm surge pic.twitter.com/CFgZSfxjv3
— Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) September 26, 2022

Housing growth from 1940 to 2020 in the #Tampa region. Disasters are a multi-headed monster. It's more than climate change, human's play a critical role no matter how you look at it. #expandingbullseyeeffect #HurricaneIan #FLwx #stormsurge pic.twitter.com/WUyZWhD8AX
— Stephen M. Strader (@StephenMStrader) September 26, 2022

Posted by greenman3610
Filed in Crock of the Week

1 Comment »

One Response to “Model: Ian Could Stall Off Florida”

rhymeswithgoalie Says:

September 26, 2022 at 11:03 pm
Well, it was earlier this year you included this video, where people distressed by the multi-thousand-dollar cost in mandatory flood insurance will prefer it over being left unprepared:

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