Ian’s Rapid Intensification is a Climate Driven Trend

September 26, 2022

My 2019 conversation with Jeff Masters is relevant today. We talked about rapid intensification of storms, something scientists are seeing more of.

New York Times:

Not only do warmer oceans make storms stronger, they make the rate of intensification more rapid, said Kerry A. Emanuel, a meteorologist and hurricane expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Rapid intensification technically refers to an increase of at least 30 knots, or 35 m.p.h., in the maximum sustained winds over a 24-hour period, according to the National Hurricane Center. Researchers have found that the likelihood of a hurricane undergoing rapid intensification has increased to 5 percent from 1 percent since the 1980s.

 number of the last decade’s most intense Atlantic storms intensified rapidly. Harvey in 2017 was a Category 1 hurricane on the evening of Aug. 24; by the next day, when the storm reached Texas, it was a Category 4 hurricane with 130 m.p.h winds. And later that hurricane season, Maria intensified from a Category 1 to a Category 5 hurricane within just 15 hours.

In 2021, Hurricane Ida strengthened from a Category 1 with 85 m.p.h. winds into a near-Category 5 hurricane with 150 m.p.h winds less than 24 hours later.

Dr. Emanuel said on Monday morning that current conditions were “ideal” for Ian to follow a similar path of development.


One Response to “Ian’s Rapid Intensification is a Climate Driven Trend”

  1. rhymeswithgoalie Says:

    Typhoon Noru took 24 hours to go from 50 mph to 155 mph.

    Someone told me the new term is Extreme Rapid Intensification (ERI).

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