IEA: Europe Vulnerable to Russia’s Gas War

July 19, 2022

Description from Deutsche Welle:

The International Energy Agency warns that the EU’s efforts to end its reliance on Russian gas are simply not enough. The agency says the bloc is set to have insufficient gas supplies to see it through winter, if Russia turns off the taps. The message from the IEA came just as Russia’s Gazprom reportedly sent a letter to European importers declaring “force majeure” on deliveries down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany. The state gas producer said “extraordinary circumstances” meant the resumption of flows was beyond its control. Germany’s government says it’s now considering whether to extend the life of its three remaining nuclear power plants to alleviate the looming crisis. Meanwhile, the EU signed an agreement with Azerbaijan on Monday to double gas imports to Europe in the coming years. 

In 2021, Russia sent 155 billion cubic meters of natural gas to the European Union. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline alone has the capacity to send 55 BCMs in a year. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan sent a total of 8 billion cubic meters to the EU last year. Under the deal, it is now expected to deliver still only 12 billion this year. So that wouldn’t even come close to replacing flows down Nord Stream 1, let alone Russia as a whole. Is the prospect of Russia stopping all supplies to the EU by the winter a realistic one?


2 Responses to “IEA: Europe Vulnerable to Russia’s Gas War”

  1. The Russians probably wont close off the gas suplies. If they do so they will cut off their suply of hard needed foreign currencies. Russia is already defaulted on dollar loans. They need our money much more then we need their gas. But we will need it for a long time. We can’t pretend that Russian gas does not exist. It will take many years to stop our dependences on Russian gas. As usual we waited way to long and hoped for the best. Russian war on Ukrain(and Georgia) started much earlier then this year.

  2. gmrmt Says:

    The actual costs of the war and the effect of sanctions will really kick in later this year so will the desperation the Russian government will feel. So they’ll definitely cut off gas when they run out of options and cause Europe to go off Russian gas in just a few years rather than a couple of decades.
    Frankly the more Russia tries to make Europe pay for supporting Ukraine the more practical it becomes for Europe to go all in with an air campaign, squashing Russian forces and making their loss all but certain just to get things over with.

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