El Nino Cycle Key to Hurricanes

May 27, 2022

WFLA Tampa:

There is arguably nothing more influential in determining how active the Atlantic hurricane season will be than El Niño and La Niña. La Niñas typically cause more active seasons than El Niño; but how much more active?

An exclusive Max Defender 8 analysis reveals the difference is even more shocking than previously thought, with La Niñas producing triple the number of hurricanes over the past 30 years.

The image above shows a direct comparison between all hurricane tracks during nine La Niña seasons – the top image – and during nine El Niño seasons – the bottom image. The difference is stark.

Below WFLA Tampa’s Chief Meteorologist on why it matters.


3 Responses to “El Nino Cycle Key to Hurricanes”

  1. rhymeswithgoalie Says:

    The increasing Ocean Heat Content (OHC) is raising the floor. I’d expect El Niño seasons to be eventually as busy as La Niña seasons used to be. A hurricane is a giant Carnot engine, and once a strong column forms, it can withstand more shear than a tepidly-fueled cyclone.

    With the OHC content rising, we don’t even need hurricanes for the increasing warm air streaming off the Gulf to cause serious damage (rainbombs, derechos) for people inland.

  2. neilrieck Says:

    In physics, the formula for kinetic energy of any solid moving mass is Ek = “1/2 mv^2” so I was surprised to just learn that doubling velocity from 75 mph to 150 mph produced 250 times the damage. I am going to assume that hurricane damage (which I assume is proportional to hurricane energy) require us to view the hurricane from a fluid dynamics perspective.

    • Gingerbaker Says:

      Sounds to me like a materiel science question. How much force is required to snap wood, pull out the nails holding a roof on, blow over a tree, break glass etc?

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