Climate Denial Crock of the Week

Hurricanes are one area where you probably don’t want to be “above average”.

Top, I interviewed Jeff Berardelli, who may be familiar to CBS viewers as a climate specialist over recent years, he is now Chief Meteorologist at WFLA in Tampa. He gave me some mind-altering stats on where we are with hurricanes today.

Jeff Masters in Yale Climate Connections:

An above-average Atlantic hurricane season is once again likely in 2022, the Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane forecasting team says in its latest seasonal forecast, issued April 7. In fact, last year’s hyperactive 2021 season is one of the top analogues.

Led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, with coauthor Dr. Michael Bell, the CSU team is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 160. In comparison, the long-term averages for the period 1991-2020 were 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, 3.2 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 123.

The CSU outlook predicts the odds of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. to be 71% (long-term average: 52%). It gives a 47% chance for a major hurricane to hit the East Coast or Florida Peninsula (long-term average: 31%), and a 46% chance for the Gulf Coast (long-term average: 30%). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 60% chance of having at least one major hurricane pass through (long-term average: 42%).

The CSU forecast uses a statistical model honed from 40 years of past Atlantic hurricane statistics, plus output from the ECMWF (European) model, UKMET model, and Japan Meteorological Agency model to augment the statistical technique.

Below, from Meteorologist Craig Setzer on Twitter, slides from National Hurricane Center Director Ken Graham.

Most eye-popping: More U.S. landfalling Cat 4 and 5 hurricanes in the past 5 years than in the previous 50+ years.

Harrowing insights into the frequency of Rapidly Intensifying storms.