Michael Mann on New Sea Level Estimate

February 17, 2022


• Sea level along the U.S. coastline is projected to rise, on average, 10 – 12 inches (0.25 – 0.30 meters) in the next 30 years (2020 – 2050), which will be as much as the rise measured over the last 100 years (1920 – 2020). Sea level rise will vary regionally along U.S. coasts because of changes in both land and ocean height. 

• Sea level rise will create a profound shift in coastal flooding over the next 30 years by causing tide and storm surge heights to increase and reach further inland. By 2050, “moderate” (typically damaging) flooding is expected to occur, on average, more than 10 times as often as it does today, and can be intensified by local factors.

• Current and future emissions matter. About 2 feet (0.6 meters) of sea level rise along the U.S. coastline is increasingly likely between 2020 and 2100 because of emissions to date. Failing to curb future emissions could cause an additional 1.5 – 5 feet (0.5 – 1.5 meters) of rise for a total of 3.5 – 7 feet (1.1 – 2.1 meters) by the end of this century.

• Continuously tracking how and why sea level is changing is an important part of informing plans for adaptation. Our ability to monitor and understand the individual factors that contribute to sea level rise allows us to track sea level changes in a way that has never before been possible (e.g., using satellites to track global ocean levels and ice sheet thickness). Ongoing and expanded monitoring will be critical as sea levels continue to rise.

Below, veteran Florida TV Meteorologist John Morales talks about Sea Level impacts on coastal property values in Florida.

Report from Tampa News station about insurance sticker shock for local homeowners, who now find themselves in flood plains.


5 Responses to “Michael Mann on New Sea Level Estimate”

  1. Ian Graham Says:

    When is the time to bail out? he asked, I think that’s already past when you’re asking.

  2. neilrieck Says:

    For the last two decades almost every scientist that held any skeptical views about climate change changed their minds when presented with the evidence of sea level rise. Quite simply, the average rate of rise between 1870 and 1990 was 1.7 mm per year. Down-looking satellite radar shows the current rate of rise at 3.4 mm per year which is double.
    Had we known this was going to happen, we wouldn’t have built cities like London and New York (to only name two of many) so close to the water,

    • rhymeswithgoalie Says:

      People live near sea-coasts for food (fishing) and transportation. People live near rivers for these reasons plus irrigation (and in many cases, waste removal).

      Bottomland is good for agriculture, with sufficient water and mature soils not found on the hills.

  3. ubrew12 Says:

    Here is what I propose: for the next 10-20 years, these impacts are just going to compound. I propose we have Michael Mann speak every time they are found newsworthy. Because Michael Mann will act as a bullet into the disinformed rightwing mind, saying “everything you have ever believed is utter cattle scat”

    The power of having Michael Mann address each and every one of these events, as they now are ‘fated’ to occur, can help drive a silver stake into every vampire Faux News disinformation story out there, not just on climate change.

  4. rhymeswithgoalie Says:

    Some of the footage shown during Mike Mann’s interview about sea-level rise was from Petropolis, in Brazil, which suffered mudslides from record rainfall.

    People who felt safe from the long time warnings about sea-level rise are discovering that rain bombs can take out their towns and dams and bridges and roads, too.

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