This is Fine: Solar Activity Moving into Active Phase

October 11, 2021

Checking in on the reliably cuckoo “The Earth is Cooling” crock.

The talking point still active in the increasingly isolated pockets of climate denial, is that the sun is just about, any time now, entering into a quiescent phase that will send the world into a cooling tailspin.

Let’s do a “How it started, How it’s going”. June 1, 2021:

In 2020 Cycle 25 had 80% more sunspots overall than the equivalent period for Cycle 24, suggesting that the current cycle may in fact be stronger, rather than weaker. The international Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel said in September 2020 that they expect Cycle 25 to be about as strong as Cycle 24. Has the consensus changed since then, or is it still the same? 

“The consensus has not changed,” panel co-chair Doug Biesecker told All About Space. The consensus is still that the current cycle will be much like Cycle 24. “We have not seen anything that differs significantly in the early stages of this cycle that varies from the panel prediction of a peak of 115 [sunspots] in July 2025.” The predictions are based on the 13-month “smoothed sunspot number” — a statistical method for calculating sunspots. And you have to be patient when studying the sun. As Biesecker said: “It can take up to three years after the cycle begins before we can say with confidence whether the prediction is still valid.”

Above, 2011 example of a genre of climate denial classified under “The World is really Cooling”. Here delivered by reliably wrong Joe Bastardi, then of Weather Bell forecasting., September 2021:

Solar activity bottomed out in December 2019, signaling the beginning of a new sunspot cycle — number 25. The current expectation is that we will reach a maximum around mid-2025. But even for this, not all solar scientists are on the same page regarding how strong it will ultimately become. The general consensus is that solar cycle 25 may have a slow start but will peak with a sunspot range of 95 to 130. This is well below the average number of sunspots, which typically ranges from 140 to 220 sunspots per solar cycle.

However, a forecast published in the journal Solar Physics in November 2020, was diametrically opposite, predicting that “Sunspot Solar Cycle 25 could have a magnitude that rivals the top few since records began.” 

One Response to “This is Fine: Solar Activity Moving into Active Phase”

  1. rhymeswithgoalie Says:

    Geez, another Maunder Minimum be wonderful right now (except for speeding up ocean acidifcation).

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