Greta Thunberg, Michael Mann on the New Administration

January 23, 2021

5 Responses to “Greta Thunberg, Michael Mann on the New Administration”

  1. indy222 Says:

    Greta gets it. Michael, for all his great scientific accomplishments and studies which I quote frequently in my educational materials…. does not. Not when it comes to the human system which is the greater cause of our overshoot-and-crash trajectory.

    For just one example – how can people still believe in ECS=3C as the number to believe for the coming decades and centuries? Do the math – it’s simple! I’ll show you… As of now, we’re at 49% of the way from pre-industrial 280ppm CO2 and a doubling at 560 ppm. Yet by the Schurer, Mann et al 2017 proper determination (finally!!) of the actual pre-industrial baseline, we’re also at a Lowess smoothed +1.48C temperature (GISS data). So if we were merely to remain on a linear CO2 trend, then TRANSIENT ECS would be +3.0C. But then keeping CO2 at 560ppm and waiting for the fast feedbacks and radiative equilibrium to finally playout from their intertia, we have to add another ~+1C, for a final ECS of 4C. But wait – most of the past temperature rise has happened while the Arctic Ocean was still solid ice, and the rainforest and soils and rainfalls had not been affected much. Those are very nonlinear processes which are now manifesting in spades, in just the past decade or two. so a linear extrapolation to +3.0C TCS is too conservative, and too, the pipeline will by then include much stronger melting permafrost and methane emissions, and the now beginning albedo feedback from loss of AO ice and darkening ice caps from rising wildfires. And where does that suggest ECS actually will be? About 5C. Which is just the values seen in past interglacials (Friedrich et a. 2016) and now in the new CMIP6 climate models, with low cloud loss as the main culprit. And ECS=5C changes EVERYTHING (Macdougall et al 2012 and 2016). Mann is too focused on not scaring people, when the truth is that they NEED to be scared, as Greta realizes, and then “the way out, is through” as the psychologists know. Go numb, grief, anger, and come to acceptance and new resolve. Instead, we’re being kept from ultimate healing, placated and pandered to by the policy people who’s ad people know too well how easily we’re hooked into “Have Cake / Eat too” can-kicking. And Michael Mann has some guilt in this, unfortunately.

    Let’s not be Col. Jessup…. “The TRUTH! You want the TRUTH!? You can’t HANDLE the Truth!”. Because if that’s unchangeably the way it is, then all this pretense is just theater before the tragic final act, and pandering while we do little things that matter not in the final equations, will only induce an even larger sense of betrayal by the young.

    Peter, you should look carefully into ECS and it’s meaning for the future, and you should do more on the larger neoclassical economics paradigm that is killing our future. We need an entirely new economic and motivational system, which is very difficult to see the outlines of. We’re still instead trying to put on little multitudes of band-aids that keep falling off of the festering system that kills a football field of rainforest every few seconds.

    • Gingerbaker Says:

      ” As of now, we’re at 49% of the way from pre-industrial 280ppm CO2 and a doubling at 560 ppm.”

      I think that may be wrong. Are you not forgetting the other GHG’s which have their own CO2 equivalents? We are already close to 500 ppm.

      • redskylite Says:

        True but tricky as other GHG have different attributes/life-times, so complex to find the meaniful eqivilency. CO2 is estmated to be the major GHG at 76%. It is not so bad to seperate the Gases in a presentation or just concenrate on the major threat.

        ==============================================

        “The fact is that climate forcers simply aren’t ‘equivalent’ – their effects on climate and ecosystems are distinct. Short-lived climate forcers have the largest impact on near-term climate whereas CO2 has the largest impact on long-term climate.”

        https://www.iass-potsdam.de/en/news/more-just-co2-its-time-tackle-short-lived-climate-forcing-pollutants

  2. redskylite Says:

    That fully answers Ginger Baker’s fair question pending from Jan 16th “World’s Oceans Hit Record Warming in 2020” and your reasoning plainly put with appreciated references to scientific works – thumbs up from me.

    ————————————————————————-

    “Parts of Sydney may be too hot to live in ‘within decades'”

    Already, heat kills more people in Australia than any other natural disaster, including floods, cyclones and bushfires.

    Now, faced with the prospect of 50-degree-plus summers, experts say highly urbanised parts of Australia may become unliveable within decades.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/435088/parts-of-sydney-may-be-too-hot-to-live-in-within-decades


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