“The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ,
Moves on: nor all thy Piety nor Wit
Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line,
Nor all thy Tears wash out a Word of it.”

― Omar Khayyám

Chris Hughes in Bloomberg:

BP Plc’s potential $18 billion writedown underscores just how significant a turning point 2020 is becoming for the oil industry. It baldly acknowledges that the major hydrocarbon producers are sitting on oil fields that will never be developed — because the pandemic has curbed energy demand and increased the desire for renewables within the supply mix.

The British oil giant has a new chief executive officer and a new finance director and it was already trying to break with the past before the impact of the Covid-19 crisis became fully apparent. The outbreak has prompted a more radical reassessment of BP’s future role and what its assets are worth.

BP’s assumption is that the long-term price of Brent crude will be about $55 per barrel, up to 30% lower than it thought previously. Among its oil major peers, the company’s management is shifting from the bullish to the bearish group. On that basis, some fields won’t earn adequate returns, and some of the world’s fossil fuels that would have been extracted and burnt now won’t be.

It’s a moment to be compared not only with peers’ comments of late, but with the seismic revaluations the industry has inflicted on investors over the past two decades — think ConocoPhillips’s $34 billion of asset impairments in the financial crisis.

The shift partly reflects the near-term reduction in economic activity. Energy demand is driven by gross domestic product and that’s expected to be sharply lower this year and next. BP also sees the pandemic accelerating the move to cleaner forms of energy as policymakers look to restart economies using less conventional energy, pushing up the cost of emitting carbon.

Read the rest of this entry »
Image

Favorite climate denial prediction of Global cooling yet to appear, even during the deepest trough of the dreaded “Solar Minimum”.

James Hansen:

Global temperature in May 2020 set a record for May (1.29°C, relative to 1880-1920) for the period of adequate data, i.e., since 1880.  That is the third monthly record in the first five months of 2020, despite the fact that temperatures this year are not boosted by a strong El Nino.

2020 and 2016 will be the two warmest years, but which one will wear the crown?  The answer is of little import – they will be close, likely a statistical dead heat – but in this Covid-19 year we need to have a little fun, and we can set the stage to learn something from the result.

2020 is a bit cooler than 2016 so far (graph above), but 2020 could pass 2016 to become the warmest year, because late 2016 was cooled by a La Niña (see May Update and graph above).

However, we suggested caution about confident predictions that 2020 would be the warmest year, because there is evidence that 2020 is also headed into a La Niña.

Image

Jeff Berrardelli on Twitter:

Solar minimum is not so grand I guess. Jan-May is 2nd warmest period on record and Berkeley Earth says the chance of 2020 being the warmest year on record is almost 90%.

Read the rest of this entry »

Not so crazy.

Nature has been working on carbon fiber innovations for a billion years.

Only pawns in their game.

New York Times:

WASHINGTON — President Trump will return to the campaign trail on June 19 with a rally in Tulsa, Okla., for the first time since the coronavirus outbreak forced most of the country into quarantine three months ago, ..

Mr. Trump will return to the campaign trail on Juneteenth, an annual holiday commemorating the end of slavery in the United States and celebrated as African-Americans’ Independence Day. After weeks of protests over the killing of George Floyd in police custody, protests and marches are already planned this year for the holiday in many states. 

In 1921, Tulsa was the site of one of the country’s bloodiest outbreaks of racist violence, when white mobs attacked black citizens and businesses with guns and explosives dropped from airplanes.

Image may contain: text
Read the rest of this entry »
This satellite image obtained from NOAA/RAMMB, shows Tropical Storm Cristobal as it moves inland over the southern part of the US at 12:10:17 UTC on June 8, 2020. - Cristobal weakened to a tropical depression on June 8, 2020 as heavy rain and coastal flooding hit the southern states of Louisiana and Florida, the US National Hurricane Center said.The third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season was packing maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour when it hit the southeast coast of Louisiana on Sunday. But Cristobal's wind speeds have since slowed to around 35 mph as it moves further inland. The center downgraded it to a tropical depression.

We’re seeing a lot of firsts this year. Lucky us.

Detroit Free Press:

A tropical cyclone has crossed over Lake Superior for the first time ever.

Tropical Depression Cristobal, which brought flooding and tornadoes to the Gulf Coast, is now making its way over the Midwest. According to the National Weather Service, it predicted Cristobal would be making its way over Lake Superior by 7 a.m. Wednesday.

Waves in the Upper Peninsula are also set to be high from the tropical storm, according to the weather service. Waves are expected to build from 5-6 feet high along the north end of the bay of the Green Bay area. The weather service also reported that along the Garden Peninsula, and east of it, waves could reach 10 feet. 

Gizmodo:

This has been the year of murder hornets, massive locust invasions on two continents, and a sudden start to Atlantic hurricane season, among other oddities (not to mention the deadly pandemic). So perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising that Lake Superior is set to see its first post-tropical cyclone ever recorded, and yet here we are.

Tropical Depression Cristobal is currently churning over the Midwest after bringing torrential rain and storm surge to the Gulf Coast. It’s in the process of becoming subtropical but is expected to maintain its swirling characteristics and make landfall on Lake Superior (or is it lakefall?). While the lake is no stranger to massive storms and powerful gales, it’s never experienced one like Cristobal.

The National Hurricane Center stopped issuing forecasts for Cristobal early on Tuesday morning, and it issued its final forecast map on Monday. But that map showed the storm heading in a very weird direction.

Read the rest of this entry »

Trump revokes marine sanctuary designation under the doctrine of “if the Black guy did it, it’s bad”.

Washington Post:

President Trump signed a proclamation Friday that opened the Atlantic Ocean’s only fully protected marine sanctuary to commercial fishing, dismissing arguments that crab traps, fishing nets and lines dangling hooks can harm fish and whales.

Fishing can resume at the Northeast Canyons and Seamounts Marine National Monument off the coast of New England, Trump said. The Obama administration closed off nearly 5,000 square miles of ocean in September 2016 to save whales and allow marine life to recover from overfishing. The controversial decision was praised by conservationists and challenged by commercial fishermen from the start.

“We’re opening it up today,” Trump declared during a roundtable discussion with commercial fishermen and Maine’s former Republican governor, Paul LePage. “We’re undoing his executive order. What was his reason? He didn’t have a reason, in my opinion.”

Trump praised LePage for supporting the seafood industry and condemned Gov. Janet Mills, a Democrat who took office last year, for slowly reopening Maine’s economy as a safety measure during the coronavirus pandemic. He said Mills, who was not invited to the event, is “like a dictator.”

Mills said Trump’s talk was more of the fiery rhetoric “he uses to try to divide us” and to stoke fear. “What Maine people heard today was largely devoid of fact and absent of reality,” the governor said. “What Maine people saw today was a rambling, confusing, thinly-veiled political rally.

Simon Evans on Twitter:

Great Britain has gone two month without coal and yes, that is a big deal.

It’s gone from 40% coal powered to ~2% in 8yrs. And plenty for other countries to learn from the experience.

How did it happen and what does it mean?

Thread with charts…

Image

During the coal-free two months, renewables were the largest source of electricity in Britain

36% renewables, of which
––––>17% wind
––––> 9% solar
––––> 9% biomass
––––> 1% hydro
31% gas
22% nuclear
9% imports, of which
––––> 5% France
––––> 3% Belgium
––––> 2% NL 

Image
Read the rest of this entry »

More from CNBC’s Diana Olick on emerging companies who advise big real estate investors on climate risk exposure.

File this under “Laws no one would have imagined necessary until the age of Trump”.

Washington Post:

Last August, Axios reported that President Trump repeatedly asked top national security officials to consider using nuclear bombs to weaken or destroy hurricanes. Now, one congresswoman wants to make it illegal for Trump, or any president, to act on this idea, which experts say would be both ineffective and extremely dangerous.

On June 1, Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Tex.) introduced the Climate Change and Hurricane Correlation and Strategy Act, a bill that explicitly prohibits the president, along with any other federal agency or official, from employing a nuclear bomb or other “strategic weapon” with the goal of “altering weather patterns or addressing climate change.”

In a phone interview, Garcia told The Washington Post that the bill was drafted as a direct response to last year’s report that Trump has floated the idea of nuking hurricanes to his senior homeland security and national security advisers. Trump denied ever making such a suggestion in a tweet shortly after Axios published its report.

The bill comes at the start of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, which is off to a roaring start, with Tropical Storm Cristobal, the earliest-recorded third-named storm of any season, striking Louisiana on Sunday. The season is expected to bring above-average storm activity, with 14 to 19 named storms, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Indeed, the idea of nuking the weather into submission is nothing new: According to James Fleming, a professor at Colby College and author of “Fixing the Sky: The checkered history of weather and climate control,” people have been discussing the possibility for almost as long as nuclear weapons have existed.

In October 1945, Vladimir Zworykin, associate research director at Radio Corporation of America, suggested that if humans had technology to perfectly predict the weather, military forces could be sent out to disrupt storms before they formed, perhaps using atomic bombs. That same year, UNESCO director Julian Huxley spoke at an arms control conference in Manhattan, where he discussed using nuclear weapons for “landscaping the Earth” or dissolving the polar ice cap. In a 1961 speech at the National Press Club, U.S. Weather Bureau head Francis Reichelderfer said he could “imagine the possibility someday of exploding a nuclear bomb on a hurricane far at sea,” according to a 2016 report by National Geographic.

Read the rest of this entry »