The Weekend Wonk: New from Tony Seba – the Renewable Disruption

May 15, 2020

Are we entering the clean energy disruption?


If you have not seen Tony Seba, he’s what you would call a Techno optimist.
I always take a skeptical view, but it’s hard to dismiss him because
he’s been on the money for a number of years now.


If you have seen him, there’s a few new slides here, and I found it
worthwhile to review.
It will definitely cause you to see some things in a fresh way.

BONUS UPDATE:

If your mind is not sufficiently blown, spend an extra 40 minutes on the video below.

6 Responses to “The Weekend Wonk: New from Tony Seba – the Renewable Disruption”

  1. Sir Charles Says:

    Shell cuts its dividend for the first time since the second world war. Oil prices turn negative in the US. Supertankers of unwanted fuel stack up in the Singapore Strait…

    => This oil crash is not like the others

  2. Sir Charles Says:

    What Is Shareholder Activism?

    A Timid Approach?

    What are shareholders demanding this year?

    => Here’s How Shareholders Are Pressuring Oil Companies to Act on Climate Change

  3. Roger Walker Says:

    I’m buying this.

    I take Kurzweil, for example, with a much smaller pinch of salt than most people, and Seba’s line is basically the same: just follow the numbers.

    Never mind our instinctive refusal to take an exponential curve seriously. Never mind how it will happen. Happen it will.

    I think we’re heading for the biggest paradigm shift since the invention of the steam engine.

  4. Roger Walker Says:

    Yep! Thanks.

  5. grindupbaker Says:

    Needs 31,000,000 of those 2.5 megawatt wind turbines to meet ALL present human energy needs using a 30% Service Factor (amount of wind relative to the data-plate maximum output), 8% grid wiring heat loss & 20% I threw on to account for inefficiencies of making synthetic fuels for aircraft & rockets (I just threw in 20% to give some allowance for that). So at the 400-metre spacing that’s covering 4,960,000 km**2 of land & ocean, though the space between isn’t wasted of course. Would need to be considerably on land because 4,960,000 km**2 of ocean along 60,000 km of continent (which I’m guessing is ~all of it between 60S & 60N) would be a grid extending 82.7 km out from shore along the 60,000 km of shore with 207 wind turbines in each rank (so a ship leaving any continent would travel down a channel 400 metres wide between 2 ranks of 2.5 megawatt wind turbines with 207 wind turbines in each rank). So the ocean method would need a lot of electrical wiring.


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