The Weekend Wonk: New from Tony Seba – the Renewable Disruption
May 15, 2020
Are we entering the clean energy disruption?
If you have not seen Tony Seba, he’s what you would call a Techno optimist.
I always take a skeptical view, but it’s hard to dismiss him because
he’s been on the money for a number of years now.
If you have seen him, there’s a few new slides here, and I found it
worthwhile to review.
It will definitely cause you to see some things in a fresh way.
BONUS UPDATE:
If your mind is not sufficiently blown, spend an extra 40 minutes on the video below.
Climate Denial Crock of the Week 
May 15, 2020 at 10:57 am
Shell cuts its dividend for the first time since the second world war. Oil prices turn negative in the US. Supertankers of unwanted fuel stack up in the Singapore Strait…
=> This oil crash is not like the others
May 15, 2020 at 11:48 am
What Is Shareholder Activism?
A Timid Approach?
What are shareholders demanding this year?
=> Here’s How Shareholders Are Pressuring Oil Companies to Act on Climate Change
May 19, 2020 at 8:12 am
I’m buying this.
I take Kurzweil, for example, with a much smaller pinch of salt than most people, and Seba’s line is basically the same: just follow the numbers.
Never mind our instinctive refusal to take an exponential curve seriously. Never mind how it will happen. Happen it will.
I think we’re heading for the biggest paradigm shift since the invention of the steam engine.
May 19, 2020 at 8:40 am
Kurzweil describes solar uptake here (online convo with Elon Musk)
May 19, 2020 at 4:18 pm
Yep! Thanks.
May 20, 2020 at 11:02 am
Needs 31,000,000 of those 2.5 megawatt wind turbines to meet ALL present human energy needs using a 30% Service Factor (amount of wind relative to the data-plate maximum output), 8% grid wiring heat loss & 20% I threw on to account for inefficiencies of making synthetic fuels for aircraft & rockets (I just threw in 20% to give some allowance for that). So at the 400-metre spacing that’s covering 4,960,000 km**2 of land & ocean, though the space between isn’t wasted of course. Would need to be considerably on land because 4,960,000 km**2 of ocean along 60,000 km of continent (which I’m guessing is ~all of it between 60S & 60N) would be a grid extending 82.7 km out from shore along the 60,000 km of shore with 207 wind turbines in each rank (so a ship leaving any continent would travel down a channel 400 metres wide between 2 ranks of 2.5 megawatt wind turbines with 207 wind turbines in each rank). So the ocean method would need a lot of electrical wiring.