Radley Horton PhD on “100 Year Floods”

December 17, 2019

Radley Horton and I were playing text tag all last week at AGU, but unable to find time for an interview – I’m going to catch up with him soon via Skype.

Good video here.


You may have noticed that we’ve been seeing way more 100-year and even 500-year floods, storms, hurricanes, and other severe weather events in the past decade. Why is that? Shouldn’t a 100-year storm happen…every 100 years? Scientist Radley Horton explains how these events actually have a misleading name, and the real reason the odds are turning against us.

7 Responses to “Radley Horton PhD on “100 Year Floods””

  1. Earl Mardle Says:

    I can see that still being a bit confusing for some. My take would be that we are using the same die, but the climate crisis is loading the die, and every year we fail to do anything, increases the load on that “1” face.

    The 100-face die covers ALL grades of rain events, so the climate crisis is also loading the other big numbers as well, while possibly reducing the weight on the smaller events as we get harder and longer droughts.

    However, since most of us, and pretty much all denialists will have nothing to do with this video, it wont make a lot of difference how we explain it. Climate is an intelligence test for the species, and right now we aren’t looking too flash.

  2. Paul Rattenbury Says:

    I get kinda pissed when everyone talks about the climate crisis or AI when ALLL of these as-if discussions take place Within the Global Capitalist system: processes under the control of the current BS capitalist system.
    Then comes William Gibson’s ‘jackpot’ where 80% of humans die and the only survivors are the insulated ultra-rich who again hang their as-if system on the old armatures of ersatz-royalty and ultra-rich capitalist pig-dogs. Reality TV became Government. Currently; the ‘major issues’ only distract us from the remaining carbon budget.
    Kevin Anderson sez if the wealthiest Northern Hemi-spherists lived as most Europeans do; CO2 emissions for the wealthiest consumers on the planet would be cut by 30%.
    Yet; the current take on environmental concerns are only those ALLOWING PEOPLE TO MAKE MONEY AND MAKE BABIES = f’in SHOPPERS.
    Guy McPherson sez: We have so much CO2 in the air now that if we cut Industrial production AND ITS PARTICULATES AND SULPHATES BY 30% we will find out about Global Dimming and a 1.5 Degree temperature rise that is built into clear skies.
    Gibson didn’t figure much AI into “the Peripheral” but my fear again is that AI will be under the same bullshit capitalist race to the bottom that we are in Now.

  3. jimbills Says:

    Related in its way:
    Australia braces for highest temperatures in recorded history amid blistering heat wave

    • Brent Jensen-Schmidt Says:

      On that note, Tuesday has been declared the hottest day EVER recorded. This is over the whole country, equal in area to the lower 48 states of the USA. Officially, summer is only 18 days old. It is anticipated locally, Adelaide SA, that December heat wave duration and temperature records will be busted. It is less than 12 months since we broke the highest ever temperature for a capital city in Oz. New normal is a killer, and increasing.

    • Brent Jensen-Schmidt Says:

      Seriously, pitchforks and burning torches, or rifles and Molotov cocktails, will become necessary if real action is not undertaken.

      • dumboldguy Says:

        Don’t forget short barrel tactical 12 GA shotguns, model 1911’s,and Kabars when things get down and dirty—-pitchforks and burning torches are mainly for the cameras.

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