Market Disses Tesla Truck

November 23, 2019

UPDATE:

47 Responses to “Market Disses Tesla Truck”

  1. rhymeswithgoalie Says:

    The very pricey Rivian looks more traditional and has impressive off-road features.

    • Gingerbaker Says:

      The Tesla – at least higher versions – might be very good off-road also, with AWD, air suspension, 16″ (IIRC) clearance, outlets for charging.

      • dumboldguy Says:

        Off-road? Yeah. plug it into a tree when it runs low! And drive it hard into streams and swamps—-maybe a little chassis flex will cause some leaks in the battery compartment and allow water to get in. Fun-fun-fun!

    • dumboldguy Says:

      Except for those stupid headlights and the no-grille grille, the Rivian does “look more traditional”. They and morons at Tesla don’t seem to understand that the pickup truck is a penis enlarger and chest hair substitute, and that those huge bumpers and grilles and puffed up bodies are part of the appeal to the “deficient”. They are not going to buy anything that looks like the Tesla.

      What Tesla buying types now drive pickups anyway? Conversely, what pickup drivers give a rodent’s rear end about being “green”—-the ones in NO VA have barely stopped displaying Confederate battle flags in their rear windows (still see lots of gun racks and NRA stickers though).

      (And it’s unbelievable that they would do the “unbreakable window” bit without trying it ahead of time–if they were also that stupid in designing the vehicle, expect more unpleasant surprises when they hit the road. A possible scenario—-someone takes one into the woods in CA, it blows up and starts a massive wildfire—-the fire is named “The Tesla Fire” and kills dozens of people and burns thousands of buildings—-excellent PR for Mars Man and Co.)

      • mboli Says:

        Put a bit of a turret on top and it resembles a futuristic version of a Soviet armored personnel carrier.
        Hardly un-manly.

        • dumboldguy Says:

          Over 2.9 million pickup trucks were sold in the United States in 2018. Not one of them looked anything like a soviet armored personnel carrier, futuristic or not. If anything, the Tesla resembles an overgrown Hot Wheels car, hardly manly to the eyes of the typical American pickup buyer.

  2. Martin Smith Says:

    Was that real, or was Musk pulling our leg so he can make some kind of point tomorrow?

    My first question is: How could they think the window was unbreakable, when it was clearly very breakable? How could they get that wrong? It isn’t just an “oopsy.” It says their engineers can’t do proper engineering.

    But the second question is even more astonishing. Suppose the window really was unbreakable. Why cares? It’s an electric truck with the performance of a Porsche and the towing power of a tank. That’s what is important. Show me what an electric truck can do. Why do I care if the window is unbreakable?

  3. ecoquant Says:

    Engineering is about continuous improvement. Still, its amazing that someone did not test or calculate the affects of said test balls ahead of the marketing rollout. Then again, maybe they were late and were just testing their luck: I mean, the original Apple Macintosh had bugs in the demo being fixed up to several hours before demo.

    Oh, well, as I’ve noted elsewhere, I’m sure this will be fixed.

    As far as range capacity goes, the industry estimates are it’s easier to make an EV watertight than an ICE. I don’t think F-150s do well when completely immersed: They just are tall enough that conventional flooding doesn’t touch their engines. But apples to apples: Try tossing one into 30 feet of seawater.

    One thing though: I think getting into an accident with a Cybertruck and being in the other vehicle is probably a non-survivable event. We own a Tesla 3 and its 4000 pounds, including, I believe, a Titanium plate beneath its battery and requiring special wheels.

    While there surely have been fatalities in Teslas, including 3s, a spreadsheet kept by Tesla enthusiasts of all known accidents show that with conventional Teslas, generally the other vehicle does pretty poorly while the Tesla occupants walk away. How much of this is solid design of the vehicles and how much are the special safety automatics with which every Tesla comes equipped, I do not know.

    I do recall though an argument on the part of some American auto manufacturer enthusiasts back when small Japanese cars were entering the U.S. market that they were unsafe, because of lighter weight. Of course, that argument was invalid because what you want is overall survival in the vehicle, not survival given you’ve gotten into an accident: It doesn’t account from what was then Toyota’s (for instance) rack-and-pinion steering and the distributional effects of unibodies when stressed.

    In this case, with Teslas, because of the need and capability to have a unit compartment that doesn’t need to be pierced with axles and exhausts and fuel or brake lines, and having a battery compartment that consists of thousands of individual LiON batteries which distribute colliding stress, this comes with the technology.

  4. jimbills Says:

    A few thoughts on this:

    I don’t see the market for this – blue blood pickup truckers won’t like the looks, internet geeks aren’t likely to opt for a pickup, and the $40K to $70K price tag will be out of range for most, anyway.

    Musk seems a lot like a carnival barker to me. He’s big on the ‘big splash’ – a CEO who seems most comfortable introducing flamethrowers and cybertrucks.

    But — both of those things mentioned, I was at an early Thanksgiving dinner today with family, and everyone at the table knew every detail about this announcement. These are not people who are hardcore environmentalists or liberals – they’re just regular Americans. Additionally, my brother-in-law, who works personal finance for some of the wealthy in Dallas, mentioned a spendthrift client who already placed an order for the cybertruck.

    It tells me that Musk might have done EXACTLY what he intended to do – get buzz about his products. The fact that this is a weird design and that the only ones who would buy this thing are people with excess wealth wanting an unusual status symbol doesn’t matter. People are talking about EVs today, and Tesla in particular.

    • jimbills Says:

      “Red blooded pickup truckers” instead of “blue blood” – whoops. Blue blood pickup truckers might actually be the Cybertruck’s only market, but how many of them are in the world after that initial 146K?

      Notice the details from Musk – 41% of the buyers opted for the $70K model. 17K opted for the base. It translates to wealthy buyers. The market will be people with a lot of money, almost certainly living in urban instead of rural areas (and therefore don’t REALLY need a pickup), who mostly want it as a way to show off.

    • ecoquant Says:

      @jimbills,

      Things are not as they were.

      Evidence is that when the Tesla Model 3 was introduced, people were trying to trade in their luxury ICE cars to buy them. This occurred to the degree that the auto trade magazines were reporting resale values of luxury ICE cars were — and continue to be — significantly depressed.

      Facts are, if you have a luxury auto and it isn’t an EV, you are looking at rapid depreciation.

      WHO said trucks should look as they are?

      One thing that’s clear, any accident involving a Tesla Cybertruck and any other vehicle, ranging from conventional autos, to F-150s, to 18 wheelers — to even other Tesla models — will end up pretty badly for the occupants of these other vehicles.

      • jimbills Says:

        Well, you can believe this thing will be a hit with average pickup truck drivers if you want. I’m surrounded by these people. I know it won’t be a hit. The people buying this thing will only be people wanting a way to show off AND who live in urban areas where they can show off without getting scornful looks (which would happen in rural areas).

        On your other point:

        Lexus sales:
        https://pressroom.lexus.com/toyota-motor-north-america-reports-october-2019-sales/

        BMW:
        https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20191001006078/en/BMW-North-America-Reports-September-2019-U.S.

        I could go on.

      • dumboldguy Says:

        “There seem to be two categories of cars that lose their value very quickly: electric vehicles and luxury cars”. (The Leaf, the Ford Fusion Energi and the Chevrolet Volt are among the big losers)

        :https://www.inc.com/chris-matyszczyk/these-are-10-cars-that-lose-their-value-quickest-almost-half-are-bmws.html

        “….when the Tesla Model 3 was introduced, people were trying to trade in their luxury ICE cars to buy them”. Really? Got a citation for that? It makes no sense.

        As for “One thing that’s clear, any accident involving a Tesla Cybertruck and any other vehicle….will end up pretty badly for the occupants of these other vehicles”.

        Really? (again) Aside from the fact that most drivers do NOT want to get involved in accidents, try hard not to, and DO manage to avoid them, it is sheer idiocy to talk about a Tesla Hot Wheels Wannabe getting the better of an 18-wheeler (or any other vehicle when the facts and physics of the accident are unknown). Why do you display such confirmation bias in support of the Toy?

        • dumboldguy Says:

          PS “WHO said trucks should look as they are?” The 2.9 million people who bought them last year, for starters. As I’ve said in another comment, they are all getting bigger and more overblown with chrome (and they are getting harder to tell apart)—-that seems to suit the typical pickup buyer just fine, and jimbills is right when he says they will laugh at the Tesla rather than buy it.

          • jimbills Says:

            Most pickup truck drivers I know are intensely conformist. They don’t really need a pickup. They wanted one because it seems like everyone else has one. They are bombarded daily with the commercials. It’s a compensator as well, yes, but there are a lot of women pickup drivers as well.

            Around here, the trend is white pickup trucks. It’s like wearing jeans around here. They’re so common one could stand on any street here and count them off like the ticking of a metronome.

            The Cybertruck is the opposite of this. It won’t speak to this market.

            There are also ‘real’ pickup truck drivers. These people really do need a pickup for their jobs. They aren’t likely to purchase a vehicle based on anything other than functionality and price. I don’t see them buying an essentially luxury vehicle like the Cybertruck, either. They don’t need, and didn’t ask, for bullet proof glass.

            I see the Cybertruck appealing to another group of people entirely. There’s a show I’ve watched about ridiculously wealthy people spending their excess cash getting custom made cars, like converting a McClaren to a Batman mobile. They want something unique that will set them apart, and they’ll spend to get it. This is the demographic for the Cybertruck.

          • ecoquant Says:

            @jimbills,

            I suspect Musk is also playing the siren for another lucrative market: Military vehicles.

          • dumboldguy Says:

            If that’s true, I’m going to sell my Solar Roadway stock and invest in armored camo color extension cords. As with the camo covers for the helmets in the USMC, there will need to be”green side out and brown side out” variants, and probably a white for polar climes.

        • ecoquant Says:

          @dumboldguy:

          Tesla’s sales successes are wreaking havoc on the pre-owned luxury car market” (Capital One: What’s in your garage?)

          And speaking of which:

          What the truck looks like when the S gets pulled away:

          • dumboldguy Says:

            LOL—-the Tesla looks totalled, the semi looks repairable. Need we post photos of the Teslas that have burst into flames while parked on the street to prove that anyone can cherry pick irrelevancies?

        • rhymeswithgoalie Says:

          One problem I’ve noticed with used luxury cars is that newer cheap cars have so many once-fancy features as standard. It used to be a big deal to have electric windows, then GPS, then menus of features on the dash, etc.

  5. Gingerbaker Says:

    There is video – perfectly available to anybody who might want to find it – showing them testing the windows with the very same ball right before the demo. The ball simply bounced off.

    • dumboldguy Says:

      The President of the Crocks Chapter of the Musk Lovers of America speaks!

      LOL It’s hard to believe that anyone would try to argue that what happened “in the dark” beforehand has any meaning compared to the disaster that went out to the world, but confirmation bias WILL drive folks to some rather twisted thinking.

      • jimbills Says:

        If they are testing the ball “right before” the demo, then they weren’t ready at all. It meant the windows hadn’t received much testing in the weeks and months prior to the launch.

        I see the mistake as inconsequential, though. If anything, it has more people talking about the product than they otherwise would be. Bad press, maybe, but the saying about ‘any press is beneficial’ applies. I don’t think many would doubt Musk will be sure it’s improved when it’s released.

        So, here’s a vehicle that has bulletproof glass and won’t dent when it hits other things. I can see this appealing to one group in particular – criminals. The cops are going to love dealing with this.

  6. Gingerbaker Says:

    “If they are testing the ball “right before” the demo, then they weren’t ready at all. It meant the windows hadn’t received much testing in the weeks and months prior to the launch.”

    Sorry – that doesn’t follow at all.

    Look – I just made a quick response to all the mudslingers foaming at the mouth about how they obviously should have tested the glass.

    Obviously they did, but it was a PR embarrassment for sure.

    My biggest complaint about the truck is that it seems self-evident that they were more interested in designing Elon Musk’s idea of the Tesla entry into some Mad Max: Fury Road contest than interested in talking to the millions of people who actually use their pickups for working.

    Because I don’t think carpenter, painters, etc appreciate at all the high sloping sides of the pickup bed wall. On the other hand, this truck, like a lot of the upper-level pickup models out there, is huge. Something tells me that no construction guy can reach over the side of his 1500+ series and pick up, say, a tool box. The top of the bed is simply too high.

    So far – and DOG is a perfect example of this – this design gives naysayers all sorts of things to complain about. It’s a perfect storm of kookiness and radicalism.

    On the other hand, this car works as a pickup truck. Its specs are spectacular, the price is right, and the damned thing is likely to be a family heirloom it will last so long. High-quality stainless construction is something that those of us in high-salt parts of the world have been waiting to hear all our lives. That – all by itself – is a huge slam dunk for me.

    It remains to be seen just how much utility this thing can provide. But with that road clearance, AWD, and an active air suspension this rig could answer just about every challenge thrown at it. In style. Weird style, but true style.

    • dumboldguy Says:

      “So far – and DOG is a perfect example of this – this design gives naysayers all sorts of things to complain about. It’s a perfect storm of kookiness and radicalism”.

      And GB sinks further into the swamp of cognitive dissonance and Musk Worship. It is NOT “naysaying” or “complaining” to point out that a demonstration of unbreakable windows that broke rather easily is a MAJOR problem for the credibility of the Tesla “injuneers” and raises questions about ALL facets of the Tesla Rich People’s Toy Truck’s design and durability.

      Why does GB continue to embarrass himself with these maunderings? Particularly when HE “complains” about the design himself and then contradicts himself by saying “it works as a pickup truck”. Is he channeling Omnologos and asking for a WHAT?

      • Gingerbaker Says:

        “It is NOT “naysaying” or “complaining” to point out that a demonstration of unbreakable windows that broke rather easily is a MAJOR problem for the credibility of the Tesla “injuneers” and raises questions about ALL facets of the Tesla Rich People’s Toy Truck’s design and durability.”

        Oh, baloney. When the one of the first minivans was introduced, its sliding door wouldn’t open and trapped executives inside. Onstage. Seems like I have seen a few minivans on the road over the years.

        So, yeah, what you just said is, indeed, the very definition of naysaying. Tesla engineering is uncredible? LOL. Their engineering is why they are eating the shorts of the traditional carmakers.

        This IS a pickup truck. It has a 6.5′ bed, is a full 6 passenger crew cab, has a 3500 lb load capacity, 16″ of ground clearance, over 800 ft-pounds of torque (in top level) and can tow 14,000 pounds ( in top level).

        It has a built-in tailgate ramp, so you can walk up or drive up the ramp into the bed. It has built-in charging ports to run equipment. It has a built-in tonneau cover. An optional tonneau made of a solar panel can add 15 miles of range per day.

        ” a demonstration of unbreakable windows that broke rather easily is a MAJOR problem for the credibility of the Tesla “injuneers” and raises questions about ALL facets of the Tesla Rich People’s Toy Truck’s design and durability.”

        “If you compare features/price the Tesla compares *very* favorably with the new Rivian EV pickup and *very* favorably with all US manufacturer pickups.”

        There are some models of US pickups which can tow more, but they can’t haul more. And they are at least as expensive. But, they can refuel with gas. So, the Tesla might not be the ideal model if you need, say, to haul cow trailers and plan on a nonstop multi-thousand mile trip. But, you could make it work.

        If cost is the issue, you might be able to buy a stripped down F-150 for less. But it would would cost you way more after a few years of ownership if you actually put average mileage on it. And it wouldn’t be a full crew cab, or have the towing/hauling capacity. Or the off-road capability.

        For 95% of the pickup owners out there – this is a compelling vehicle on paper. It’s a matter of perception.

        Speaking of perception, what is interesting is some initial impressions on the topic of the design appeal of this vehicle. Seems older people hate it. And younger people love it. Really love it.

        I have no idea what to make of early reservations for this truck. It’s only a $100.00 refundable reservation. But 164,000 people reserved one in the first two days.

        And I have to say – when I first saw the design I was hugely disappointed. Two days later? I want one. Go figure.

        • Gingerbaker Says:

          OOps!

          It is now 187,000 reservations.

        • dumboldguy Says:

          “…when I first saw the design I was hugely disappointed. Two days later? I want one. Go figure?” says GB at the conclusion of another long-winded demonstration if his cognitive dissonance when it comes to all things Musk.

          I don’t enjoy shooting fish in a barrel, but GB makes it SO easy! First, with a logic fail—-a “what about” a minivan door. Followed by yet ANOTHER logic fail—“Seems like I have seen a few minivans on the road over the years”. Non sequiturs anyone? Must I shout to get GB to accept that neither if those attempts at deflection HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH THE FACT THAT THEY SMASHED THE UNBREAKABLE WINDOWS WHILE DEMONSTRATING THAT THEY WERE UNBREAKABLE? Lord love a duck, but some people just don’t know when to quit.

          “If you compare features/price the Tesla compares *very* favorably with the new Rivian EV pickup and *very* favorably with all US manufacturer pickups.” Another lofic fail—the bald assertion!

          “Their engineering is why they are eating the shorts of the traditional carmakers”. Does “eating the shorts” mean they are selling more vehicles? Making bigger profits? Likely to be around 10 years from now when the “others really get into EV’s?

          “So, the Tesla might not be the ideal model if you need, say, to haul cow trailers and plan on a nonstop multi-thousand mile trip. But, you could make it work”. Many of the pickup drivers in this area who use their vehicles for work travel into the DC area from the Shenandoah Valley and nearby W VA—-150 to 200+ miles a day—-the Tesla Toy for Rich Folks Truck has a range of 250-300 miles.

          “Seems older people hate it. And younger people love it. Really love it”—yeah, my son and grandsons really liked their Hot Wheels when they were “young”.

          • Gingerbaker Says:

            Oops! Now > 200,000 preorders.

          • dumboldguy Says:

            2,900,000 pickups sold in 2018 and on the streets VS 200,000 “maybes” in a couple of years?. Not to mention SUV’s, which fill the “pickup need” of many of the timid suburbanites. As I’ve said, some folks suffer from extreme bright-sidedness.

          • Gingerbaker Says:


            -the Tesla Toy for Rich Folks Truck has a range of 250-300 miles.”

            Nope. 250-500 miles. And even the low end covers your hypothetical commuter. Or did you not notice?

            Let’s say you need to go a lot further than 200 miles a day. You realize that Tesla owners start every day with a full charge? And, if they somehow need to recharge, there are Superchargers all over the place. And they are fast.

            Do you have any idea how short a time is now needed to put hundreds of miles into your Tesla at a Supercharger? Right now, you can put 150 miles in in 11 minutes and 22 seconds. 60 miles in 4 minutes. 240 miles in under 27 minutes. And all those times would be significantly shorter with a 500 mile battery.

            By the time the Cybertruck comes out, it will almost certainly be much less time than that.

            Your criticism falls flat on its face.

            And this is decidedly not a “toy” nor is it for “rich folks”. This is for people who want to save a metric s**t ton of money over the life of their truck compared to any existing ICE-powered pickup. truck.

            The real world average mileage of a the average Ford 150 pick up is 16 mpg [http://www.fuelly.com/car/ford/f-150]. You theoretical commuter, driving 200 miles a day, puts on at least 52,000 miles a year. That would require 3250 gallons of gas at $3.00 per gallon is $9700 per year. Electrons would cost about 1/3 of that for a savings of about $6400.00 per year on gas alone.

            Do the math.

          • dumboldguy Says:

            I have “done the math”. The single motor base model, which they are pricing at $40,000 (and they will probably lose money at that price), has a range of ~250+ miles. The next of the three trim levels will have dual motors and go 300+, and the top tri-motor trim level will go 500+, and cost $70,000. And accelerate faster than a Porsche 911. Do NOT hold your breath waiting for Joe Pickup to buy this vehicle at that price, and when the next economic downturn hits, expect those looking for toy trucks to hold back as well.

          • Gingerbaker Says:

            ” The next of the three trim levels will have dual motors and go 300+, and the top tri-motor trim level will go 500+, and cost $70,000. And accelerate faster than a Porsche 911. Do NOT hold your breath waiting for Joe Pickup to buy this vehicle at that price”

            Breakdown of reservations as of two days ago:

            42% choosing dual, 41% tri & 17% single motor

            remains to be seen how “Joe Pickup” will respond when it finally starts rolling of the assembly lines.

            As of October 2019, the average price paid for a full size pickup truck in the US is $51,000. [https://www.worktruckonline.com/343743/average-new-pickup-truck-prices-up-year-over-year] Average mid-size pickup (which the CT is way above) is $35,700. A midsize pickup buyer would make up the difference in price in the first year of gas savings, and have a much larger, more capable truck.

            Unless, of course he can’t do math or hates Tesla, or just hates new ideas, or enjoys polluting the planet for his children. Or is just your friendly neighborhood moron.

            to recap:

            2 days of reservations = 200,000+ = 10 billion dollars worth.

            We. Will. See.

          • dumboldguy Says:

            We will see indeed. BTW, doing the math with the percentages of each trim level ordered that you gave yields an average price of $58,600 and a total of $11.36 billion dollars of imaginary money floating around in the ether.

            The fact that the percentage of tri-motors is so high would lend credence to the idea that it’s the rich folks ordering them so they can have drag races with 911’s—-Joe Pickup is for sure NOT ordering the $70K+ version.

  7. Bryson Brown Says:

    The truck looks like a just the thing for Mad Max survivalists (so long as they have the solar panels to charge it…). Not sure that’s the market, but the crazy / failed demo of how unbreakable the glass is fits…

  8. ecoquant Says:

    @jimbills,

    Yes, and the City of London, in addition to having congestion pricing, has an ultra low emissions zone.

  9. Abel Adamski Says:

    The Pickup Truck market consists of several segments, no point in targeting the coal rollers and rednecks who would never buy an electric truck in case their penis shrank even further.
    However this vehicle will appeal to Military, Police, Private security, emergency vehicles and Park Rangers (With the electric ATV option)
    PLus there are large companies and corporations in the field servicing and maintenance are (Oil and gas fields, wind and solar farms, etc etc) that this might suit. The Stats and economics are excellent and that is all the accountants care about.
    Plus of course the well heeled Boulevard Cruisers and Soccer Mums and well of Tesla Fan Boys.
    Currently about 200K orders – the accountants will take some time to put in their fat orders, but that is OK, available in about 2 years.
    P.S the Shape is about Function and form , the monocoque’s strength is from the A Frame design with the roof peak being a key structure point – the A Frame being and exceptionally strong structure.
    The sloping side panels on the vault are part of that A Frame and also conceal internally very substantial lockable tool boxes.
    The Planar edgy shape is due to the Ultra hard 30x rolled stainless steel plate which is not suitable to stamping or pressing or moulding, even complex curves are very difficult and expensive.
    However that planar angular design is far cheaper to build, thus the competitive price points

    • Abel Adamski Says:

      I expect it to sell very well, the African, South American, Middle Eastern warlords and shieks will be lining up as will the preppers.


Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: