Soggy South Sees Developing Depression

July 10, 2019

UPDATE: Happening now. Going to get worse.

Southern Mississippi still swollen from continuing anomalous rains. New storm developing in Gulf.

Weather Underground:

Heavy thunderstorms have begun to fire up over the northern Gulf of Mexico in association with an area of low pressure (92L) centered over the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday morning. This system was headed south at about 5 mph and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression as early as Wednesday. Regardless of development, a large section of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will see very heavy rains of 3+ inches over the coming week. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave 92L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 50% and 80%, respectively.

NBC 2 Fort Meyers Fla. – 8:40 am:

The low pressure we’ve been monitoring for the last few days (also known as Invest 92L) has moved into the Gulf of Mexico and will strengthen into a tropical depression within the next 24-36 hours. The National Hurricane Center has upped odds of development up to 90 percent.

But it’s important to remember that the 90 percent from the NHC is for the potential for overall tropical development. What about development into a tropical storm? What about a hurricane? The NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Tracking Team has been monitoring the models as well, and we have increased our odds of development.

NOLA.com:

Storm surge pushed up the Mississippi River by a developing tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico will likely cause the river to rise on Friday to 19 feet at the Carrollton Gauge in New Orleans, which is 2 feet above official flood stage, but between 1 and 3 feet below the top of earthen levees and floodwalls in the area, according to the National Weather Service. 

The corps has never had to prepare for the combined assault of a tropical storm and a high-water event on the river. But it is now making plans to essentially fight a war on two fronts.

“We have had high-water events in hurricane season but we’ve never had an elevation forecast like this,” Corps spokesman Ricky Boyett said.

Boyett said that at this point, the Corps is not concerned about how the system will hold up.

“Right now we’re pretty confident in the system,” Boyett said. “It’s doing well, it’s holding up pretty well. We’re not seeing any areas of concern.”

Boyett stressed that the highest forecast at the moment would still see the water fall a foot below the lowest points on the river levees. Still, the Corps is likely to shut the flood gates that sit behind many areas of the levees – such as in the French Quarter – to provide an additional layer of protection.

“We’re planning for the worst, hoping for the best,” he said. “But what we don’t want is for residents to hold off on their own preparations, now is the time to make sure they have everything in order.”

Storm surge pushed up the Mississippi River by a developing tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico will likely cause the river to rise on Friday to 19 feet at the Carrollton Gauge in New Orleans, which is 2 feet above official flood stage, but between 1 and 3 feet below the top of earthen levees and floodwalls in the area, according to the National Weather Service. 

7 Responses to “Soggy South Sees Developing Depression”

  1. dumboldguy Says:

    Just heard on the radio that New Orleans has gotten several inches of rain in just a few hours and an emergency flash flood warning has been issued. Good luck, folks,

  2. rhymeswithgoalie Says:

    Space-station shot of the flooded Mississippi River valley/delta:
    https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145286/long-view-of-the-mississippi-river-delta

  3. rhymeswithgoalie Says:

    Just FYI: The levees that →failed← in New Orleans from Katrina were not the river levees, but levees* interior to the city along the canals into Lake Pontchartrain. (The catastrophic damage in the Lower 9th was due to a loose barge ramming into the wall of the Industrial Canal which cuts through the city.)

    I think it’s important to note that these constructions were not maintained to specification as are many current and probably future water defenses we’ll see built against sea-level rise around the country and around the world.

    _____
    *Houses are built right up to them, and subsurface leakage had been observed in back yards for years before the Katrina surge in Lake Pontchartrain caused them to fail below the designed-for water height.

  4. rsmurf Says:

    I love NO but it still amazes me that its below sea level and the river is above the city.

    • dumboldguy Says:

      NO is about 300 years old, and you can bet that the first part of the city was ABOVE sea level and the river. It took “modern” geniuses to create the present situation.

      • jerrydogood Says:

        The original NO was built on a bluff. It suffered no flooding in Katrina as all the water from rain ran off into mostly the lake. As NO expanded its population a lot of land was reclaimed from swamps by building levees, a lot of those levees were built after WWII. The city fathers got their cut , the builders sold the houses and got their cut and when Katrina came along and the levees failed for various reasons, the taxpayers of the US picked up the tab for billions of dollars so people could rebuild below sea level. Somehow I think that was a pretty poor outcome.


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