The Weekend Wonk: Impending Implosion of Big Auto/Oil

December 28, 2018

Chatty discussion of why internal combustion is doomed.

More details below. Scads of new EV startups coming. Q. Can a vacuum cleaner company make an EV that doesn’t suck?

Posted by greenman3610
Filed in Crock of the Week

8 Comments »

8 Responses to “The Weekend Wonk: Impending Implosion of Big Auto/Oil”

Sir Charles Says:

December 30, 2018 at 12:12 pm
Forget about GM and Volkswagen. Modern witches fly with Dyson. I love the idea. The big players being beaten by smart business. Have a look here:

=> In July Deutsche Post DHL Sold The Most Electric Cars In Germany

No manufacturer wanted to produce electric vans for the German Post. So they decided to build them themselves.

Reply
- Sir Charles Says:
  
  December 30, 2018 at 12:26 pm
  I found a video here:
  
  SMEs are delighted. That’s exactly what the baker and the pizza man needs for delivery.
  
  Reply
- rhymeswithgoalie Says:
  
  December 30, 2018 at 1:05 pm
  Joe Scott spoke of Dyson’s meticulousness being a disadvantage in high-speed innovation markets, and the fact that they have no experience in the harsh physical and regulatory demands of vehicles, and it seems pretty damning. In leading edge technology, the early startups (like Tesla) have the “speedboat” advantage, but once the “cruisers” of the auto industry turn their might toward the EV market, they will be a force to be reckoned with, and opportunities for new entrants will drop away.
  
  Reply
  - Sir Charles Says:
    
    December 30, 2018 at 2:17 pm
    Well. In terms of Deutsche Post there was no German manufacturer willing to cooperate. Their bigger vans are now built on Ford chassis. The cronyism between car manufacturers and government exists since day one of the Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Fact is that 2017 was a record year for the big six German carmakers VW, Daimler Benz, BMW, Audi, Porsche and Opel. Their net profit was
    
    VW: €11.4bn, more than double the net profit of 2016
    
    Daimler Benz: €10.9bn, 24% more than 2016
    
    BMW: €10.7, first time ever above €10bn
    
    Audi: €4.7bn, despite large investments +8.4%
    
    Porsche: €3.1bn, +€0.5bn
    
    and thanks to Opel the PSA group is recovering: €1.7bn net profit
    
    That adds up to a record net profit of €42.5bn by German carmakers in 2017. Therefore they surely don’t have time for “peanuts” like the German Post. This year, Volkswagen announced to invest €40bn into the development of electric cars, the very most of that in China, currently the biggest market for EVs. But at home they are complaining about the new emission targets from the European Union. The new EU regulations require that new cars sold in 2030 emit 37.5 percent less CO2 on average, compared to 2021 levels.
    
    Reply
rhymeswithgoalie Says:

December 30, 2018 at 12:40 pm
The Zac&Jess In Depth video was fantastic, and I forwarded it to several people.

Bear in mind, though, that they (or Ross Tessien) largely focused on new vehicle sales. I still think that the used ICE vehicle market will have a very long tail, especially in poorer countries, where the lower cost of both used cars and oil will keep the market alive. (Think of the cliche pictures of Cuba’s 1950’s car fleet, where “needs must” can keep old cars running a long time.)

Reply
- Sir Charles Says:
  
  December 30, 2018 at 2:21 pm
  Aren’t the Cubans driving with bio-ethanol?
  
  Reply
Jak O'Malley Says:

December 30, 2018 at 11:58 pm
Just remember that it does no good to plug an electric car into a coal- or gas-fired power plant. I would buy the right one–small 4wd van, not made yet–next year, but I would buy PV panels for the roof of the house, to charge the van whenever the sun shines, at the same time. And as much as mine would sit between trips around town, finishing it with thin-film PV material instead of paint might actually provide most of the charge I need, much of the time.

Reply
- greenman3610 Says:
  
  January 7, 2019 at 4:06 pm
  actually it does quite a bit of good even if the source is coal. EVs are so
  efficient that there is a net emissions gain, and the grid is getting cleaner
  by the month.
  
  Reply