James Hansen’s colleague in 1988 was Syukuro Manabe – legendary early climate modeler.

Here he explains now well-observed arctic warming due to “polar amplification” – understood from basic physics, and now very well observed.

See below, NASA’s animation of global temperature changes makes arctic warming clear from 1881 to 2016.

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Archival footage from early 80s shows how much climate scientists understood and predicted the changes we are seeing now.

Compare predictions from 83 with current observations.

Below, John Holdren, science advisor to Barack Obama,  walks thru the history of late 70s, early 80s climate science. Read the rest of this entry »

Steve Goodman was one of the best singer songwriters I ever saw live. Maybe the best.

Heard Goodman sing this on the radio, part of an interview where he discussed his ongoing treatment for leukemia.
Steve Goodman died at age 36 in 1984.

That’s Jethro Burns on the mandolin.

30 Years after prophetic predictions of global change unfolding today, Jim Hansen is still sounding warnings – climate change may not happen in a slow steady process.

Recent studies showing accelerating Antarctic melt seem to be supportive of his science.

Given his track record, can we afford to ignore him again?

offshoreoil

Bill McKibben in the Guardian:

And from Wall Street came welcome word that market perceptions haven’t really changed: even in the age of Trump, the fossil fuel industry has gone from the world’s surest bet to an increasingly challenged enterprise. Researchers at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis minced no words: “In the past several years, oil industry financial statements have revealed significant signs of strain: Profits have dropped, cash flow is down, balance sheets are deteriorating and capital spending is falling. The stock market has recognized the sector’s overall weakness, punishing oil and gas shares over the past five years even as the market as a whole has soared.”

The IEEFA report labeled the industry “weaker than it has been in decades” and laid out its basic frailties, the first of which is paradoxical. Fracking has produced a sudden surge of gas and oil into the market, lowering prices – which means many older investments (Canada’s tar sands, for instance) no longer make economic sense. Fossil fuel has been transformed into a pure commodity business, and since the margins on fracking are narrow at best, its financial performance has been woeful. The IEEFA describes investors as “shell-shocked” by poor returns.

And from Wall Street came welcome word that market perceptions haven’t really changed: even in the age of Trump, the fossil fuel industry has gone from the world’s surest bet to an increasingly challenged enterprise. Researchers at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis minced no words: “In the past several years, oil industry financial statements have revealed significant signs of strain: Profits have dropped, cash flow is down, balance sheets are deteriorating and capital spending is falling. The stock market has recognized the sector’s overall weakness, punishing oil and gas shares over the past five years even as the market as a whole has soared.”

The IEEFA report labeled the industry “weaker than it has been in decades” and laid out its basic frailties, the first of which is paradoxical. Fracking has produced a sudden surge of gas and oil into the market, lowering prices – which means many older investments (Canada’s tar sands, for instance) no longer make economic sense. Fossil fuel has been transformed into a pure commodity business, and since the margins on fracking are narrow at best, its financial performance has been woeful. The IEEFA describes investors as “shell-shocked” by poor returns.

Read the rest of this entry »

On the 30th anniversary of James Hansen’s historic 1988 climate predictions – I am posting a number of clips from my 2015 interview in San Francisco – above, on the threat of arctic methane hydrates.