Next Up: Irma

September 1, 2017

Very nice explainer from Hampton Roads, Va TV Meteorologist Tim Pandajis.

Looking at Hurricane Irma, possible tracks over coming week, and larger concepts of weather prediction/modeling.

UPDATE:

Weather.com: 5am September 2:

Hurricane Irma’s intensity continues to fluctuate and is expected to strengthen over the next few days, and may be a formidably intense hurricane when it nears the Leeward Islands next week.

The center of Irma is located just over 1,300 miles east of the Leeward Islands and is moving west at 10 to 15 mph.

Irma’s intensification paused on Friday after intensifying from a tropical storm Wednesday to Category 3 hurricane Thursday in just 30 hours.

Irma finished its first cycle of reorganization called an eyewall replacement cycle, common to all strong hurricanes, during which a new eyewall forms and replaces the old. This allowed Irma to once again strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane.

Irma will likely undergo a few of these cycles in the coming weeks.

Irma appears to have weakened slightly overnight and fluctuations in intensity will continue over the next few days. However, later this weekend into next week Irma is expected to move over progressively warmer waters and into a more moist environment, which combined with low to moderate wind shear should allow additional strengthening, possibly to Category 4 or 5 status by early in the week ahead.

For the next five days, Irma will move westward, turn west-southwest, then west-northwest again on the south side of a ridge of high pressure called the Bermuda high, centered in the central Atlantic.

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3 Responses to “Next Up: Irma”

  1. wpNSAlito Says:

    What an *excellent* presentation!

  2. dumboldguy Says:

    Pandajis did an excellent job—-good “teaching” about hurricanes. Hampton Roads is where the Norfolk naval base is located—one of the most vulnerable spots on the east coast—-let’s hope Irma goes elsewhere.

  3. indy222 Says:

    Great. Let’s re-school the SouthEast Coasters on the Clausius-Clapeyron relation and the intensity of hurricanes. Most people learn best when it’s done the hard way.


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