Are We Heading Back into El Nino?

February 17, 2017

el-nino-forecast-feb-2017

UK Met Office:

In the waters of the far-eastern equatorial Pacific – close to the South American coast – sea-surface temperatures are beginning to rise, prompting some climate scientists to believe the world could be heading for another El Niño in close succession to the previous event which ended last year.

The last El Niño, which peaked in the winter of 2015-2016, was the joint strongest event on record. It had impacts around the world and the heat released from it added to existing climate change to break global surface temperature records in 2015 and 2016.

Prof Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office Hadley Centre said: “The El Niño–La Niña cycle hasn’t been very active this winter, but Met Office predictions and those from some other centres are suggesting an increased risk of an El Niño developing by the summer.”

It isn’t unknown for El Niños to occur in close succession: events developed just two years apart in 1963 and 1965, and have even developed in consecutive years before, in 1986 and 1987. However, the level of warming in current predictions of the tropical Pacific is unusual for this time of year.

Commenting on the likelihood of another El Niño peaking at the end of this year, Prof. Scaife urged caution: “It is very early days and forecasts made at this time of year have great uncertainty, so we are just flagging the raised risk of an event at this stage, given the global consequences if it does occur.”

BBC:

The so-called “Super El Niño” of 2015 and 2016 is said by experts to have had a role in driving global temperatures to record highs.

Earlier this week researchers detailed the impact of the event on winter beach erosion in California, which was 76% above normal according to the study.

However, the influence of El Niño is felt right around the globe, affecting monsoons in Asia and droughts in Africa.

Cooling off

Often after an El Niño, you get a marked reversal of conditions – a so-called La Niña event.

According to the WMO, the recent cooler ocean conditions were only intermittently indicative of La Niña, and in January this year they returned to a neutral state.

So weak was the overall impact that many scientists dubbed the event “La Nada” – which translates as “the nothing” in Spanish, the original source of the “La Niña” and “El Niño” terms.

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15 Responses to “Are We Heading Back into El Nino?”

  1. dumboldguy Says:

    I do NOT like the looks of that graph. Unlike the graphs of projections of how rapidly renewables are taking over by 2030, 2040, or 2050, this one is looking only at the next few months, and is far more likely to be “real”. Super El Nino and another record high temperature year, anyone?

  2. Tom Bates Says:

    Currently in this weak intermittent state it is raining cats and dogs and maybe alligators. For those of us who live in the west, the rain is a good thing.

  3. Tom Bates Says:

    Incidentally all those red lines are simply model results. You notice they never have the models results lined up with the real world results for say the last 50 years. That is for a very good reason, the models do not predict.

  4. Tom Bates Says:

    Incidentally, incidentally, the record temperatures were after NOAA Giss adjusted all the temperatures, thousands of them upwards. The STAR data showed a continued decline, the radiosonde data a steady state, the RSS data a decline after the El Nino went away and it never got as hot as 97-98, it snowed in the Sahara, and 66 percent of Giss is fake plugs.


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