New Video: Climate Change – What We Knew and When We Knew It

February 14, 2017

NYTimes:

Not long ago, many Republican officeholders had a simple answer when asked about the changing climate: What changing climate?

But the public began to notice the heat waves and the torrential rainsand the tidal flooding. So then we had the “I am not a scientist” phase, with one lawmaker after another fending off climate questions with that formula.

That drew such ridicule that Republicans critical of climate science had to come up with a more nuanced answer. Several variations on the new approach were on display recently during confirmation hearings for some of President Trump’s cabinet nominees.

“Science tells us that the climate is changing and human activity in some manner impacts that change,” Scott Pruitt, the Oklahoma attorney general nominated to run the Environmental Protection Agency, told a Senate committee. “The human ability to measure with precision the extent of that impact is subject to continuing debate and dialogue, as well they should be.”

Let us ponder the craftsmanship of that second sentence.

“With precision” is the key phrase, of course, and it renders the statement almost axiomatically true. Do we have trouble taking the precise temperature of an entire planet and then divining, for a given period, exactly how much of the change in that temperature is caused by human activities?

Well, yes.

Anybody who did not know better might come away thinking there is room to doubt whether humans are the main cause of global warming. Mr. Pruitt did not actually say that, of course — nowadays, hard-core climate denial provokes a furious response from Democrats in Congress and mild protest even from a few Republicans.

Thus Mr. Pruitt and the other Trump nominees labored to avoid overt denial while signaling to their allies that there is enough doubt to justify inaction on emissions or even rolling back steps the Obama administration took.

“They’re just trying not to look crazy, because if they look too crazy, then Susan Collins” — a Republican senator from Maine — “and a few of the moderate Republicans might jump ship,” said Raymond T. Pierrehumbert, an American climate scientist who holds a chair at Oxford University, in Britain.

Yale Climate Connections:

Models long have been targeted as a weak link by those steadfastly refusing to accept mainstream climate science.

But a review of their actual performance paints a different picture.

This month’s original “This is Not Cool” video by independent videographer Peter Sinclair offers strong evidence supporting the value of climate models in helping forecast global warming. He weaves together a string of archival televised presentations, classroom lectures, congressional testimony, and one-on-one interviews in relating how climate models frequently have provided valuable insights into coming developments only later seen by direct observation.

It will come as no great surprise to the professional climate modeling community, but the testimonials in the video suggest that those dismissive of the mainstream climate science may have to find a new target for their barbs.

Sinclair in the video uses his familiar blend of new and decades-old footage to document numerous important cases in which climate models called things right, ranging from the “whole warming of the earth that’s occurred over the last few decades” to the more rapid warming of the Arctic and of continental interior regions, and faster warming of night than of daytime.

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41 Responses to “New Video: Climate Change – What We Knew and When We Knew It”

  1. redskylite Says:

    Peter . Excellent 7 minute informative video in this “Yale Climate Connections piece”, summing up evidence of the “smoking gun”, having watched James Burke’s excellent series in the 1990’s, this is a shorter summary (repeating his warnings) for busy people.

    Today NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory | Global Monitoring Division released January 2017 Average Mauna Loa CO2.It’s accelerating upwards, during a neutral ENSO phase (+3.61 ppm over January 2016). Not much time to get a grip on our steady pollution over the years.

    Time to act, and act fast. Listen to the experts and professionals, not your gut instinct or ambitious denying politicians.

    The quality of life for future generations rely on our action now.

    https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

    • Tom Bates Says:

      You assume the increase in CO2 is somehow going to send the world into chaos and destruction. Maybe you should look at what is actually going on and than make some judgements. A Berkeley study of CO2 warming found an increase of 2/10ths of a watt, that is 4150 times less than average solar gain which varies a lot over the years. it is also 210 times less than NASA models of solar gain warming due to changes in earths tilt and orbit which will warm the earth for the next 25000 years.

      Your claims ignore what happens when the world is warmer. The sahara for example changes from a sandy wasteland to a verdant grassland with large rivers. The increased CO2 increases plants and hence human food resources.

      Your claim assumes warming is happening at a rapid rate yet ocean rise trends on land not moving up and down is 3 inches in the next 100 years per NOAA and per the French who have measured since 1805, 4 inches in the next 100 years. If the oceans are not rising at a rising rate than warming is pretty small and rise can be attributed to some other cause than man smoking a lot of cuban cigars.

      Your claim neglects to look at past climate. The medieval warm period , for example , was warmer than today with 280 PPM CO2 so something else warms the world and in the little ice age cooled it. The claim man is solely responsible for ending the little ice age is simply unsupported hubris by people who want your money as the UN even admits.


      • 0.2 Watts /Sq Metre for a 22ppm increase in CO2.
        Considering a Solar Grand Minimum reduces incident Solar Radiation by approx 0.5 Watts /Sq Metre.
        So that 120ppm we have increased the CO2 level equates to a 1C increase in back radiance of IR in the CO2 band which increases surface water temperature increasing evaporation and as we know atmospheric H2O is a potent GHG and thus the ball gathers speed
        Those changes in Earths tilt and orbit include the Milankovich Cycle etc, all those cycles have been in cooling phases for many years. In fact the Earth should be slowly cooling towards an ice age in approx 10,000 years.

        I love those claims re all these warm periods, Minoan, Roman etc etc.

        Please explain Utzi the ice man. You could almost if you were a religious person consider him as a sign from God.

        He died/was killed 5,000 years ago, before all these warming periods you love to quote. With an unbelievable series of coincidences. He was rapidly covered in snow before decay set in, as he lay in a depression that also retained the ice keeping it from flowing and taking his body with it, that snow never melted and built up over the aeons into a thick sheet of ice encasing and covering him, as he never decayed that showed the ice cocoon never melted in 5000 years.
        Then just a few years ago his body was discovered at a time science could date his death and ascertain much of him and his life.
        The area where he was entombed is now a meadow in summer with no ice whatsoever.
        Just consider that string of coincidences


  2. […] via New Video: Climate Change – What We Knew and When We Knew It — Climate Denial Crock of the Week […]

  3. skeptictmac57 Says:

    Pretty much now the denier game has shifted to the “We don’t know that it is going to be detrimental. We don’t know how much is caused by us. Adaptation will be cheaper than curbing fossil fuel use for energy production. Think about the poor people across the world who need these cheap fuels to make a better life (probably the first time these deniers ever gave a damn about 3rd world humans).”
    There appears to be an endless well of excuses that deniers can go to to get the world to do jack shit to address the core problem of too much Co2 in the atmosphere.

  4. Tom Bates Says:

    So now you folks are presenting a movie guy as an authority on the science of models. Typical of the bizarro world you folks inhabit. It is to bad you are in that bizarro world as we actually need people who have a brain to help solve the many problems of this world if our kids are to have a decent future.

    NOAA STAR has the world cooling, NOAA radiosonde data has the world not warming for about 58 years, RSS shows no warming since 1998 , UAH about the same except for the last El Nino where it has slightly more warming than the latest RSS revisions. Giss has the world warming but it is 66 percent plugged fake numbers per a statistical study last year. Lot of hysteria over the heat wave in the arctic except the same thing happened 37 years ago when it also snowed in the Sahara.

    It is warmer than in the depths of the little ice age 400 plus years ago. That is a good thing as it help plants grow to feed all the people on this planet. The increased CO2 is also a good thing as it increased the plants mass which helps keep 415 million people alive who otherwise would be dead at the PC 280 PPM of CO2, maybe one of those people would be you.

    • Dave Willis Says:

      Tom – who pays you to post this silly stuff?


    • If increased CO2 has resulted in 415 million people alive that would otherwise be dead, then one of those people could also have been your president. This is just one more compelling reason why CO2 should be urgently and aggressively cut back.

      Except you’re wrong. If CO2 is aggressively phased down it will save lives, unfortunately yours with it. This is a huge problem. There’s no known way to place you in a small part world to enjoy the future planet on high CO2 emissions while the rest of us enjoy the remainder on lower CO2.

    • ubrew12 Says:

      “NOAA STAR has the world cooling” For Earth to warm through lessened infrared radiation to the Space environment, the stratosphere has to necessarily cool. Likewise, if you get cold at night and slip an extra blanket under your main blanket, the outer surface of your main blanket must get colder for you to get warmer.

    • Sir Charles Says:

      Old silly repetitions, Tom. Remember?

      The pace is a staggering one. Welcome to the Anthropocene

    • Mike Male Says:

      Peter……how much more?

    • lesliegraham1 Says:

      Get some self-respect Bates. Seriously.
      You’re just embarrassing now. Not even worth debunking.

  5. izen Says:

    @-Tom Bates
    “It is warmer than in the depths of the little ice age 400 plus years ago. That is a good thing as it help plants grow to feed all the people on this planet.”

    Wrong, most of our main food crops, corn wheat and rice, have a maximum optimum temperature above which yield falls rapidly. Australia for instance has lost over 16% of its arable land because it is no longer possible to grow crops that provide a viable return.

    @-“The increased CO2 is also a good thing as it increased the plants mass which helps keep 415 million people alive who otherwise would be dead at the PC 280 PPM of CO2, maybe one of those people would be you.”

    Increased CO2 helps weeds more than crops and does nothing to increase the food yield or quality. The extra CO2 goes into cellulose and faster growth. The massive increase in food production and yields is partly due to improved crop varieties. But mainly due to our ability to make fertiliser, pesticides and herbicides from fossil fuels. We are indirectly turning oil into extra food, the extra CO2 is of limited benefit to agriculture.

    At 280ppm (and no warming) it is likely that we could have produced MORE food, as the advances in agricultural methods would not have had to offset the shrinking area of agricultural land with optimum temperature and rainfall for our main food crops.

    http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFSGE67205720100803

    “Drought in eastern Australia during most of the past decade cut grain production in half in some years.

    Rice production, which relies on irrigation, has fallen from 1.0 million tonnes in 2005/06, a year when rain boosted water availability, to 205,000 tonnes in 2009/10.”

  6. vierotchka Says:

    Excellent, as always. This is what you do best, stick to it. 🙂

    • dumboldguy Says:

      Yes, PLEASE stick to pure climate change topics! PLEASE stop talking about Putin and Russian attempts to interfere with our democratic processes, manipulate our president, and collude with our fossil fuel interests to keep BAU going with fossil fuels (and maybe even push harder—-Tillerson-Putin-Trump-Exxon-Siberia deals in the making?)

      Make all V’s efforts to “normalize” Putin and Russia pay off for her! Along with all her anti-American propagandizing! And all her attempts to distract us! That’s what SHE “does best”.

      • vierotchka Says:

        Follow your own advice and desist from spreading or believing those lies about Putin and Russia.

        • dumboldguy Says:

          Like the “lies” about Flynn’s collusion with Putin and Russia that caused him to come under fire and resign? And may yet send him to jail? Those lies?

          As SchwaD said on another thread—-go back to your day job and stop being a whore and troll for Putin and Russia—-you are NOT very good at it.

          • vierotchka Says:

            From what I have been able to gather, Flynn committed no crime when he talked with the Russian ambassador, and it was Trump who demanded that he resign for having lied about it to Pence.

            As you know full well, I am not a troll, but you certainly are – and a rather stupid one.

            Вы неудачная шутка, глупый старый тролль.

          • vierotchka Says:

            From what I have been able to gather, Flynn committed no crime when he talked with the Russian ambassador, and it was Trump who demanded that he resign for having lied about it to Pence.

            As you know full well, I am not a troll, but you certainly are – and a remarkably stupid one.

          • dumboldguy Says:

            “From what you have been able to gather”, you say? LMAO! That’s very funny, considering that your only sources or “gathering” are the “Russia and Putin Whore’s Hotline”, RT, and the manual that they issue to all you anti-American propagandists.

            As I and everyone else with an IQ above 90 that visits Crock “knows full well” (not you Bates, Voisin, and DweebyJ), you are most definitely a troll, and have proven it many times over in other threads.

            If you are NOT a troll here on this thread. show us by getting back on topic.

          • vierotchka Says:

            Oh how ignorant you are about me – you are taking your deliria for facts! Very sad, really. Must be dementia or schizophrenia.

          • dumboldguy Says:

            Yep, V’s an anti-American troll for Russia and Putin. She proves that by doubling down on her trolling rather than getting back on topic as I suggested, which is climate change by the way, for those she has succeeded in distracting. I’m done kidding about her needing the attention of “troll whisperer” Betsy Harris. It is obvious that V is just a whore for Putin and Russia, and is in their employ (but she seems to actually enjoy being a whore, so the $$$ isn’t everything).

            Just like the Trump whores in this country, she seeks to deflect and distract from the real problem—Trump—-by focusing on the fake news “war” that the intelligence community is supposedly waging against Trump. And gives us a long clip from Fox (Faux = Fake) News featuring the thoughts of Dennis Kookycinich—-a rather far out liberal-progressive who has allowed himself to be used by Fox-Faux-Fake News. SAd ti see how he has fallen so far from being a candidate for president.

            In her quest for more bullshit to support the lie that it’s not Trump’s fault and that Putin and Russia have not been involved in dirty doings with treasonous Americans in the Trump camp, V gets kooky herself by giving us a clip from the ever famous Lionel. Lionel is nothing more than an entertainer, although he is far more entertaining and intelligent than others like Limbaugh. Anyone who wants to know more about Lionel the Entertainer can google lots of info—-like this tidbit:

            “He’s an ardent ufologist and believes that the mysteries of extraterrestrial intelligent contact is, as Stanton Friedman calls it, the Watergate of the millennium”.

            And this also—-V uses parallel techniques.

            “Lionel developed three critical rules of engagement that have been his kata: (1) Be the first caller and set the tone of the show; (2) Never discuss the subject the host has presented; and (3) Whenever possible, insult the host”.

            Yep that’s some great ‘gathering” you’re doing, V. Lazy and dumb—-a 5th. grader could do better. And you have the nerve to call us “pathetic”?

          • vierotchka Says:

            Look how pleased your beloved guru is with you!

          • dumboldguy Says:

            Climate change, V, climate change—-that’s what we’re talking about here! Why do you NEVER make any contributions to that discussion?

            Is it because you ARE nothing but a whore for Putin and the Russians and an anti-American propagandist sitting in “neutral” Switzerland? Keep proving it to us—-there may still be a handful of Crockers that haven’t yet come to that conclusion.

          • vierotchka Says:

            Don’t blame me, it was you who changed the subject (spool up to my original comment to see the proof of that)! I simply followed your suit. You immediately responded by trolling. Typical of psychopaths is to others others of their own misbehaviour, that is your consistent modus operandi. Are you not aware of just how much of a fool you make yourself here?

          • dumboldguy Says:

            Yes, let’s DO spool up to V’s original comment snd look at it again—–she said, “Excellent, as always. This is what you do best, stick to it. 🙂”

            To which I replied —–“Yes, PLEASE stick to pure climate change topics! PLEASE stop talking about Putin and Russian attempts to interfere with our democratic processes, manipulate our president, and collude with our fossil fuel interests…..

            “Make all V’s efforts to “normalize” Putin and Russia pay off for her! Along with all her anti-American propagandizing! And all her attempts to distract us! That’s what SHE “does best”.

            For those few Crockers who are not by now fully aware of V’s game, the intent of what followed her ass-kissing “excellent as always” was EXACTLY as I outlined in my reply.

            Get a new computer? How about a new brain or an honest job?

          • dumboldguy Says:

            We’ve seen this one before. V is repeating herself. And isn’t the high intellectual quality of her NON responses amazing? She should learn to keep quiet and just be thought a fool rather than endlessly proving to us that she is one. But, fool that she is, V must have the last word, no matter how DUMB it may be. LOL.

          • vierotchka Says:

            At least, I have a brain, contrary to you as this X-ray of your head shows:

          • vierotchka Says:

            Ooops, my crazy keyboard eliminated one word – here is what I actually said:

            “Typical of psychopaths is to blame others”

            (time to get a new computer)


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