OK, everybody just chill. Chill right now.

 

(You are) “in what we call the reality-based community,” (that is) people who “believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality. … That’s not the way the world really works anymore,”..

Ron Suskind quoting Carl Rove in 2004

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Tampa Bay Times:

Officials say people who refused to evacuate from central Florida’s Atlantic coast are calling for help now as Hurricane Matthew’s western eyewall brushes past Cape Canaveral.

Brevard County Emergency Operations spokesman David Waters said early Friday that more than 100,000 people in the area had lost power.

Waters says he has talked to other families who have said things like, “We’re scared. We wish we hadn’t stayed.”

More than 360,000 in Florida are without power Friday morning.

..we are all capable of believing things which we know to be untrue, and then, when we are finally proved wrong, impudently twisting the facts so as to show that we were right. Intellectually, it is possible to carry on this process for an indefinite time: the only check on it is that sooner or later a false belief bumps up against solid reality, usually on a battlefield.

– George Orwell

Science Daily:

Climate change is a serious threat to humans, animals, and Earth’s ecosystems. Nevertheless, effective climate action has been delayed, partly because some still deny that there is a problem. In a new thesis in psychology, Kirsti Jylhä at Uppsala University has studied the psychology behind climate change denial. The results show that individuals who accept hierarchical power structures tend to a larger extent deny the problem.

damage22

In the scientific community there is a strong consensus that humans have significantly affected the climate and that we are facing serious challenges. But there is a lot of misinformation about climate change in circulation, which to a large part is created and distributed by organised campaigns with the aim of postponing measures that could combat climate change. And there are people who are more prone than others to trust this misinformation.

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More evidence that right wing media kills.

Talking Points Memo:

Hours ahead of Hurricane Matthews’ landfall on Florida’s Atlantic coast, some climate change skeptics downplayed the danger of what meteorologists say could be the worst such storm since Hurricane Katrina.

Public officials and meteorologists have repeatedly stressed the strength of the storm, especially to those living in the evacuation zones on Florida’s Atlantic coast.

“This storm will kill you. Time is running out,” Gov. Rick Scott (R) said in a press conference Thursday. “There are no excuses. You need to leave. Evacuate, evacuate, evacuate. Are you willing to take a change to risk your life? Are you willing to take a gamble? That’s what you’re doing.”

Yet in the face of those pleas conservative aggregator Matt Drudge, who has a house in Florida, tweeted that “The deplorables are starting to wonder if govt has been lying to them about Hurricane Matthew intensity to make exaggerated point on climate,” and “Hurricane Center has monopoly on data. No way of verifying claims. Nassau ground observations DID NOT match statements! 165mph gusts? WHERE?”

Drudge later posted the web address of a NOAA buoy and encouraged readers to monitor the storm on their own, to see if “observations match the Hurricane Center’s claimed 140 mph sustained winds.”

As of 6:00 p.m. Thursday, this was the front page of the Drudge Report:

drudgetruthers

Mike Mann gives good discussion of effects of record warm water on formation of superstorms like Haiyan and Mathew.

Below, if you have not seen my video on the connection between climate and weather extremes, now would be a good time, before the lights go out. Read the rest of this entry »

Still the most popular vid in the “This is Not Cool” series for Yale Climate Connections.
Never more relevant than today.

I’ll be in Miami, if my flight isn’t cancelled, next week, with Jeff Goodell of Rolling Stone. Jeff is following the story of Sea Level rise, and was with us in Greenland for the first few days of Dark Snow project 2013.
His piece about a hypothetical major hurricane hitting a climate-vulnerable Miami is only getting more haunting.

Jeff Goodell in Rolling Stone, Goodbye Miami:

When the water receded after Hurricane Milo of 2030, there was a foot of sand covering the famous bow-tie floor in the lobby of the Fontaine­bleau hotel in Miami Beach. A dead manatee floated in the pool where Elvis had once swum. Most of the damage occurred not from the hurricane’s 175-mph winds, but from the 24-foot storm surge that overwhelmed the low-lying city. In South Beach, the old art-deco­ buildings were swept off their foundations. Mansions on Star Island were flooded up to their cut-glass doorknobs. A 17-mile stretch of Highway A1A that ran along the famous beaches up to Fort Lauderdale disappeared into the Atlantic. The storm knocked out the wastewater-treatment plant on Virginia Key, forcing the city to dump hundreds of millions of gallons of raw sewage into Biscayne Bay. Tampons and condoms littered the beaches, and the stench of human excrement stoked fears of cholera. More than 800 people died, many of them swept away by the surging waters that submerged much of Miami Beach and Fort Lauderdale; 13 people were killed in traffic accidents as they scrambled to escape the city after the news spread – falsely, it turned out – that one of the nuclear reactors at Turkey Point, an aging power plant 24 miles south of Miami, had been destroyed by the surge and sent a radioactive cloud over the city.

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Mathew Watch

October 6, 2016

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mathewtrack

Florida might be hit twice by Hurricane Mathew, in what could be an epic October surprise on the eve of one of the most important climate elections in history.

Other models show the center of the Cat 4-5 storm plowing up along the southeast coast for an extraordinary path targeted to maximize destruction, while continuing to feed off anomalously warm gulf stream waters.

mathewtrack2

A well informed Met tells me

“It’s fairly extraordinary to be pondering a 400-500 mile long track of Category 3+ damage. By Sunday there will be fewer climate change deniers from Florida to South Carolina, especially if Matthew revs back up to a 4 or 5.”

It’s happening. It’s real. If you are nearby, take necessary steps.  I’m on the road this morning, will catch up when I can.

Read the rest of this entry »

hurricwarning

Click for larger.

Hurricane warnings up in Florida,  and remarkably strong Mathew still has plenty of warm ocean water to fuel up before a possible US landfall.

I just booked my AirBnB for Miami next week, where I’ll be following Rolling Stone’s Jeff Goodell in his investigation of Sea Level rise.  Looks like we may be documenting storm aftermath as well.

Below: Satan appears as Hurricane Mathew. NASA says so.

Read the rest of this entry »

pence2

Mike Pence’s frequent shout outs to the 19th century were meant to galvanize the rural Pennsylvania and Ohio base, the undereducated, ignorant, and angry demo that his ticket hardly needs to energize.

Hardly a dog whistle, it was a proud affirmation of loyalty to Big Fossil, and absolute fealty to ignorance.

Washington Post:

But the most glaring example of damning subtext that will get the least attention was in Pence’s repeated attacks on Obama and Clinton for the “war on coal,” a term that the Indiana governor used conspicuously five times. What that term really implies is that the federal government should not fight climate change. Kicking coal is at the center of any good climate strategy, because there is no reasonable way to keep burning large amounts of the dirtiest fossil fuel and respond to scientists’ warnings that the world must dramatically cut carbon dioxide emissions. Carbon capture and other technologies that could make coal “clean” have proven themselves extremely expensive relative to other options. Coal country simply must transition.

trumpcoal2

The term also implies factual illiteracy — or disinterest in reality — on the part of those who use it. U.S. coal consumption has dropped not just because of the Obama administration’s climate agenda. Coal country was hit hard long before the president’s Clean Power Plan was finalized. The fracking boom produced a massive, steady supply of cheap natural gas, which has out-competed coal. Despite their rhetoric, Trump and Pence could not rescue coal country from that economic reality without some sort of massive and counterproductive government intervention.

Pence’s “war on coal” line was a play for votes in rural Pennsylvania and Ohio. It was also utter nonsense. Perhaps a debate moderator will finally attempt to pin the GOP ticket down on climate change one of these days — instead of allowing Trump and Pence to let silence and deflection continue doing so much of the talking.

Mike Pence interview from 2009. Science denial fun starts at 6:25.

trumptweek

More proof. Science Denial is a Russian plot to make America non-competitive.