NOAA Updates Hurricane Forecast

August 12, 2016

NOAA updates hurricane estimates for this season, as we head into the most active months.
Above, MIT’s Kerry Emanuel and others explain the trend in more powerful storms.


Even as the United States’ “major hurricane drought” continues, NOAA’s updated 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, which was released Thursday, is calling for this year to be the “strongest since 2012.
“The decision to increase the number of expected named storms, from 10-16 in the outlook released in late May, to 12-17 in the latest outlook, isn’t entirely unexpected. The update comes about 40% through the hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, and the activity has been above average to date with five named storms, of which two have become hurricanes. On average the Atlantic would not have five named storms until the end of August, and we would not normally see the second hurricane until August 28 (Earl became the second hurricane on August 3)

Possible impact on economy from Bloomberg:
Aug. 11 — David Streit, Commodity Weather Group forecaster, discusses the NOAA’s Atlantic hurricane forecast with Bloomberg’s Vonnie Quinn and Shery Ahn on “Bloomberg Markets.”

Below: Hurricane Sandy had a powerful impact on the 2012 election.  Could history repeat?


One Response to “NOAA Updates Hurricane Forecast”

  1. Tom Bates Says:

    Hurricanes have been down for more than a decade, the insurance industry report for last year had storm claims down for the sixth year in a row yet somehow NOAA always predicts more and heavier storms. Does it ever occur to someone that something is wrong with the models?

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