The Weekend Wonk: Atlantic Hurricane Season is On
June 18, 2016
Above, National Hurricane Center video on the 2016 season.
NHC Director Rick Knabb discusses the Hurricane Specialist Unit operations area and chats with Senior Hurricane Specialist Dr. Jack Beve
The prediction is for 18.9 +/- 4.4 total named tropical cyclones, which corresponds to a range between 14 and 24 storms with a best estimate of 19 named storms. This prediction was made using the statistical model of Kozar et al. (2012, see PDF here). This statistical model builds upon the past work of Sabbatelli and Mann (2007, see PDF here) by considering a larger number of climate predictors and including corrections for the historical undercount of events (see footnotes).
The assumptions behind this forecast are (a) the persistence of current North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (0.88 °C in late-April 2016 from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch) throughout the 2016 hurricane season, (b) development of a La Niña (Niño3 anomaly of -1°C) in the equatorial Pacific during boreal Fall/Winter 2016-17 (Climate Prediction Center April 2016 ENSO Discussion), and (c) climatological mean conditions for the North Atlantic Oscillation in Fall/Winter 2016-17.
If no La Niña develops (Niño3 anomaly between +/- 0.5 °C), then the prediction will be lower: 16.1 +/- 4.0 storms (range of 12-20 storms with a best guess of 16).
FYI, ESSC has a pretty good track record for predictions, see here, and place your bets:
WWSB in Tampa has this informative intro to hurricanes 2016, first 3 minutes.
After a long drought in landfall hurricanes on the US east coast, could this year return to the mean?
Below, my new video has MIT’s Kerry Emanuel, probably the world’s most quoted hurricane expert weighing in, along with others.