Reviewing 2012’s Sea Ice Drop

April 16, 2016

There’s reason to believe we will be seeing some remarkable and historic developments in the Arctic this summer, including possibly a significant season for Arctic Sea Ice.

The last two big bottoming out events for arctic ice were 2007, and 2012. Above is the sea ice video I produced in 2012.  I’ve already started interviews for this year’s investigation.

NSIDC Satellite still bonked.  Here is the current Japanese graph.


13 Responses to “Reviewing 2012’s Sea Ice Drop”

  1. grindupbaker Says:

    Arctic sea ice departing south before melting(such as perhaps 55N or lower, I don’t know) is what causes the thermohaline circulation.

    • ubrew12 Says:

      I’m not current on this, but I thought the Gulf Stream evaporates as it travels north, increasing its salinity content. Once it cools down in the N Atlantic, this extra salt makes it denser than the surrounding waters. It sinks and thus the thermohaline circulation is gravity driven.

    • grindupbaker Says:

      So, 18 months later out of the blue some video PETER WADHAMS says “sinking of sea water in the Arctic driven by sea ice growth and that sea ice growth is not happening”. So I commented on this method of removing fresh water (which I figured out myself) 2 years ago on a famous activist Blog and was told by the experts there it was a silly idea. So Stefan Rahmsdorff says it’s just the water cooling & evaporation driving NADW & James Hansen says it’s melt water off Greenland that’s slowing the NADW. Now (I never heard or read this before) PETER WADHAMS throws in changes in sea ice growth which I surmised 2 years ago. So get your act together climate scientists. What are the NADW factors & how much of each ? I think I had mostly the wrong hemisphere, I saw later a reference to a paper that Antarctic sea ice departing north before melting contributes to the NADW bit of thermohaline circulation (I don’t know how much, I didn’t look for the paper). Interesting stuff though.

  2. Andy Lee Robinson Says:

    I’m also happy to have played a role in this piece, helping to wake up the people, despite the near total media blackout on that which must not be mentioned because it threatens those that profit from fossil fuels – including politicians and the mass media.

    If all we have are grass roots, then that’s what we must use to raise awareness and reach critical mass.

    This year is pivotal, and the coming US election result may make or break efforts to avoid the worst.

    I hope sanity trumps ideology when it really counts.

    • ubrew12 Says:

      “I hope sanity trumps ideology” This year Trump is trumping both sanity and ideology. There seems to be no bottom to ‘the crazy’ in modern politics. When you put this together with the purpose of the GOP-led Congress (which is basically to play the role of ‘anarchist’ to government), you must wonder if all that fossil money is content merely to purchase chaos, at this point. If the public could lose, for just a moment, its ‘attention-deficit-syndrome’ fascination with ‘politics turned reality-show’, it might notice that Climate Change is already here and turning rapidly catastrophic.

      • dumboldguy Says:

        We need to gather up Andy’s “grassroots” and bundle them into torches. Then grab our pitchforks and send the raging mobs into the streets until critical mass is reached and the the resulting explosion takes down the Drumpfs, the Repugnants, and the fossil fuel interests. Time is short.

        Yes, 2016 is going to be a pivotal year in so many ways.

      • Andy Lee Robinson Says:

        They’ve been digging this hole since before Luntz’s famous memo, and since backing out was/is ideologically/financially/contractually impossible, it looks as if the moment it is finally going to cave in and bury them is fast approaching.
        Just need a few more straws to break the Kochs’ back, or a landslide Dem victory, which seems very likely if Trump’s rout of the GOP succeeds, and then the serious business of fixing this planet can continue apace.
        The trials for corruption and attempted biosphericide can come later.

  3. Unfortunately, the satellite sensor used by NSIDC – on F-17 – has essentially failed, or is malfunctioning.

    “NSIDC has suspended daily sea ice extent updates until further notice, due to issues with the satellite data used to produce these images. The vertically polarized 37 GHz channel (37V) of the Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSMIS) on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F-17 satellite that provides passive microwave brightness temperatures is providing spurious data. The 37V channel is one of the inputs to the sea ice retrieval algorithms, so this is resulting in erroneous estimates of sea ice concentration and extent. The problem was initially seen in data for April 5 and all data since then are unreliable, so we have chosen to remove all of April from NSIDC’s archive.

    It is unknown at this time if or when the problem with F-17 can be fixed. In the event that the sensor problem has not been resolved, NSIDC is working to transition to another satellite in the DMSP series. Transitioning to a different satellite will require a careful calibration against the F-17 data to ensure consistency over the long-term time series. While this transition is of high priority, NSIDC has no firm timeline on when it will be able to resume providing the sea ice time series.”

    • dumboldguy Says:

      We discussed this on another thread, and joked about conspiracies—-i.e., what we don’t know can’t hurt us, and if the sea ice disappears this year we may not even be aware of it because of “no updates”. Not to worry!—there’s always next year! Also, since the election will be in full craziness by September, we may have other things to occupy our attention.

      “Transitioning to a different satellite will require a CAREFUL calibration against the F-17 data to ensure consistency over the long-term time series”, and “…no firm timeline on when it will be able to resume providing the sea ice time series” sounds like potential foot-dragging to me. We DO have other ways of assessing ice decline and several months to implement them. Get busy, NSIDC.

  4. Snow White Says:

    For more detail on the state of all the satellites, not to mention Arctic sea ice data from everywhere except DMSP F-17, see:

    Satellite Problems With Arctic Sea Ice Measurement

    Whilst over there make sure to check out all the ways in which the usual suspects in the cryodenialosphere are claiming that the dodgy data proves that “Global sea ice makes a strong comeback!”

    First up was Professor Judith Curry. Then this morning came our old friends at the Global Warming Policy Forum. The GWPF were followed this afternoon by Anthony Watts

  5. Snow White Says:

    It sounds as though the SSMIS instrument on F-17 has been restored to health. An errant solar panel was the problem it seems:

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