Even Denier’s Favorite Graph Showing Big Temp Spike

March 1, 2016

spencer0216.jpgRecent Nature Climate Change paper reopens the theological discussion about whether there was a “pause” or “hiatus” (really meaning just continued warming but slower) in global surface temperatures during the last decade or 2.  Significant authors include Mike Mann and Gerald Meehl.

Deniers, as usual, are freaking out.
Kind of moot in that even denialdom’s favorite graph, (above) from John Christie/Roy Spencer’s University of Alabama Huntsville shop is showing a bodacious spike that kind of makes the “no warming since…” meme a bit dated.

Just to show how over the top this has gotten, here’s just a sampling of James Delingpole’s latest spittle flecked rant.

In my last column I promised I’d name the guilty names: all those morally bankrupt, intellectually tainted, mendacious, ignorant useful idiot shills who for the last several years have assumed the mantle of scientific expertise and loftily declared that the “Pause” in global warming wasn’t a thing, only a fantasy cooked up by evil deniers.

You may say that I’m using a sledgehammer to crack a nest of cockroaches; that rather than crow in victory one should be magnanimous in order to prove oneself a better man than they are, Gunga Din.

Here’s a first. For a more measured reaction, I’ll go to reliable Science Committee lukewarmer witness Judith Curry’s blog:

Firstly, climate scientists agree that global warming has not ‘stopped’ – global surface temperatures and ocean heat content have continued to increase, sea levels are still rising, and the planet is retaining ~0.5 days of the sun’s incoming energy per year.

I think there is also broad agreement that climate scientists have probably not chosen the right words (e.g. ‘hiatus’) to describe the temporary slowdown, especially when talking to the media and the public.

However, there has very clearly been a change in the rate of global surface warming. Figure 1 shows rolling 15-, 30- and 50-year trends computed for different surface and satellite global temperature datasets. There are clear fluctuations in the rate of global temperature change in the past. We also expect similar fluctuations in future – global temperatures will not increase smoothly or linearly.

Spencer adds this:

In addition to the expected tropical warmth, scattered regional warmth outside the tropics led to a record warm value for extratropical Northern Hemispheric land areas, with a whopping +1.46 C anomaly in February…fully 0.5 deg. C above any previous monthly anomaly (!)

uahland0216

So all in all, not much different from what James Hansen told BBC a few years ago.

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27 Responses to “Even Denier’s Favorite Graph Showing Big Temp Spike”

  1. bobinchiclana Says:

    Just clicked on the Delingpole link and entered a parallel universe. It’s really Alice Through The Looking Glass in there!

    • dumboldguy Says:

      Yes, the Land of Delingpole is a place to be avoided at all costs if one wants to retain normal brain function. His ranting will lower your IQ almost as rapidly as that of that other science-ignorant Brit Monckton.

      Perhaps we shouldn’t be so unkind, though. Remember that Delingpole is probably suffering from PTSD caused by his being “intellectually raped” by a journalist a while back.

      • Magma Says:

        No ordinary journalist. Delingpole’s claimed “intellectual rape” was the result of several mild but penetrating questions asked by then-President of the Royal Society and Nobel Laureate (Medicine) Paul Nurse in the course of an interview for a BBC program. Delingpole floundered, and later claimed he’d been set up.

  2. lerpo Says:

    That “Judith Curry’s Blog” section seems to be lifted directly from Ed Hawkins: http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2016/making-sense/

    That may explain why it sounds so reasonable.

  3. kap55 Says:

    Oh c’mon. The “no warming since …” meme is not dated. It’s just been updated to “no warming since 2016”.

  4. Sir Charles Says:

    Meanwhile in the UK: Lord Lawson thinktank’s report ignores everything we know about climate science

    Global Warming Policy Foundation publishes report ignoring centuries of physics, drawing criticism and laughs from climate scientists

    No, James Delingpole, it’s overdue to name the guilty names, all those morally bankrupt, intellectually tainted, mendacious, ignorant useful idiot shills who for the last decades have lied to the public that the scientific consensus on climate change would be just a hoax.


  5. Wow, Delingpole seems to have gone completely insane.

  6. grindupbaker Says:

    I’ve a hypothesis it’s just that people feel warmer because they rush around more. I’m checking my sweat daily to convert to solid theory, something good enough for newspapers to publish.

    “retaining ~0.5 days of the sun’s incoming energy per year” looks low unless Peter is using a recent El Ninoish year only.
    ORAS4
    ~2003-~2013 0.86/342 = 0.251% * 365 = 0.92 days of the sun’s incoming gross energy per year
    ~2003-~2013 0.86/241 = 0.357% * 365 = 1.30 days of the sun’s incoming gross energy per year


  7. The Deniersphere is going crazy, maybe the election campaign trying to prop up the F/F funded GOP candidates.
    Or maybe realising the consequences of the good old Judaic (the fundamentslists focus) tradition of stoning the decievers.
    A GOP Pres, Congress and Senate could shut down all US climate research leaving Climate Change to be explained as normal or an act of God


  8. The Y-Axis on Dr. Spencer’s graph had to be scaled higher to accommodate the new Global Temperature — the graph had to be adjusted up from the previous 0.8 to now 0.9 “T Departure from ’81 – ’10 Avg. (deg. C.)” in order to fit… …The new record also broke the old graph.


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