Even Denier’s Favorite Graph Showing Big Temp Spike
March 1, 2016
Recent Nature Climate Change paper reopens the theological discussion about whether there was a “pause” or “hiatus” (really meaning just continued warming but slower) in global surface temperatures during the last decade or 2. Significant authors include Mike Mann and Gerald Meehl.
Deniers, as usual, are freaking out.
Kind of moot in that even denialdom’s favorite graph, (above) from John Christie/Roy Spencer’s University of Alabama Huntsville shop is showing a bodacious spike that kind of makes the “no warming since…” meme a bit dated.
Just to show how over the top this has gotten, here’s just a sampling of James Delingpole’s latest spittle flecked rant.
In my last column I promised I’d name the guilty names: all those morally bankrupt, intellectually tainted, mendacious, ignorant useful idiot shills who for the last several years have assumed the mantle of scientific expertise and loftily declared that the “Pause” in global warming wasn’t a thing, only a fantasy cooked up by evil deniers.
You may say that I’m using a sledgehammer to crack a nest of cockroaches; that rather than crow in victory one should be magnanimous in order to prove oneself a better man than they are, Gunga Din.
Here’s a first. For a more measured reaction, I’ll go to reliable Science Committee lukewarmer witness Judith Curry’s blog:
Firstly, climate scientists agree that global warming has not ‘stopped’ – global surface temperatures and ocean heat content have continued to increase, sea levels are still rising, and the planet is retaining ~0.5 days of the sun’s incoming energy per year.
I think there is also broad agreement that climate scientists have probably not chosen the right words (e.g. ‘hiatus’) to describe the temporary slowdown, especially when talking to the media and the public.
However, there has very clearly been a change in the rate of global surface warming. Figure 1 shows rolling 15-, 30- and 50-year trends computed for different surface and satellite global temperature datasets. There are clear fluctuations in the rate of global temperature change in the past. We also expect similar fluctuations in future – global temperatures will not increase smoothly or linearly.
In addition to the expected tropical warmth, scattered regional warmth outside the tropics led to a record warm value for extratropical Northern Hemispheric land areas, with a whopping +1.46 C anomaly in February…fully 0.5 deg. C above any previous monthly anomaly (!)
So all in all, not much different from what James Hansen told BBC a few years ago.