Kevin Trenberth on 2015 Temperatures

January 30, 2016

Kevin Trenberth in Science Magazine, August 2015:

The main pacemaker of variability in rates of GMST increase appears to be the PDO, with aerosols likely playing a role in the earlier big hiatus. There is speculation whether the latest El Niño event and a strong switch in the sign of the PDO since early 2014 (see the figure) mean that the GMST is stepping up again. The combination of decadal variability and a trend from increasing greenhouse gases makes the GMST record more like a rising staircase
than a monotonic rise. As greenhouse gas concentrations rise further, a negative decadal trend in GMST becomes less likely ( 13). But there will be fluctuations in rates of warming and big regional variations associated with natural variability. It is important to expect these and plan for them.

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14 Responses to “Kevin Trenberth on 2015 Temperatures”

  1. Tom Bates Says:

    If you look at alternate data sets like RSS,UAH and STAR, the world is not currently warming and has not for almost two decades. STAR shows a cooling, RSS global tropical and stratospheric data is cooling, only the arctic is warming but not by much. Barrow Alaska , for example, was 7 degrees warmer in October of 1911 than in 2015. Only the Giss data set and ones like it such as the Hadcrut show warming and that only after making plugs of thousands of missing data temperatures and temperatures lower than surrounding temperatures which could be all plugs. 66 percent of Giss is a plug. By some strange exterrestrial reason, all the plugs are higher than the actual temperatures they replaced.

    As a further check, antarctica sea and land ice is increasing and has for decades. Greenland land ice is increasing again after a few years of decline. Arctic sea ice has not changed much, about 5 percent since 1958, higher currently in the atlantic and in the pacific because of the El Nino. Even the IPCC admits Himalayan glaciers are mostly stable with some increasing and some decreasing.

    We are warmer than in the depths of the little ice age 400 years ago but colder than a 1000 years ago unless trees in Alaska grow under glaciers and 4000 years ago in Switzerland which had trees growing under a glacier or it was warmer than today.

    CO2 increase does increase solar gain, It has been measured at .08F or 0.00014705882 percent of solar gain. It will be a long long long time before anybody notices as that is far under the error rate in measuring global
    temperatures.

    • Harry Twinotter Says:

      So much wrong with what you posted, I do not know where to start.

      So I will just call Gish Gallop and move on.

  2. Tom Bates Says:

    If you look at alternate data sets like RSS,UAH and STAR, the world is not currently warming and has not for almost two decades. STAR shows a cooling, RSS tropical and stratospheric data is cooling, only the arctic is warming but not by much. Barrow Alaska , for example, was 7 degrees warmer in October of 1911 than in 2015. Only the Giss data set and ones like it such as the Hadcrut show warming and that only after making plugs of thousands of missing data temperatures. They also plug temperatures lower than surrounding temperatures which could be all plugs. 66 percent of Giss is a plug. By some strange exterrestrial reason, all the plugs are higher than the actual temperatures they replaced.

    As a further check, antarctica sea and land ice is increasing and has for decades. Greenland land ice is increasing again after a few years of decline. Arctic sea ice has not changed much, about 5 percent since 1958, higher currently in the atlantic and lower in the pacific because of the El Nino. Even the IPCC admits Himalayan glaciers are mostly stable with some increasing and some decreasing.

    We are warmer than in the depths of the little ice age 400 years ago but colder than a 1000 years ago unless trees in Alaska grow under glaciers and 4000 years ago in Switzerland which had trees growing under a glacier or it was warmer than today.

    CO2 increase does increase solar gain, It has been measured at .08F or 0.00014705882 percent of solar gain. It will be a long long long time before anybody notices as that is far under the error rate in measuring global
    temperatures.


    • For a moment there I thought master bates was this guy: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=w833cAs9EN0

    • redskylite Says:

      Why should I be interested in the temperature in part of the atmosphere well above Earth’s surface. Humans live on the surface. Thousands of weather stations data around the world show a warming Earth, I don’t care what it’s doing far above my head. Thanks to institutions like The Smithsonian we had an early start. I have access to the data and can plot the upwards trends myself for nearly any region on this planet. Thanks to global warming we have just loss much of a world heritage area, including species that were around during our cretaceous period. What is worse babies with damaged brains are being born in an even expanding mosquito range. And this is just the start, so wake up and make yourself useful can you ?

    • Gingerbaker Says:

      So, Tom… if you double-post, do you get paid more?

      • dumboldguy Says:

        Yes—that’s the way it works with Russell Cook.
        Yes—that’s the way it works with Russell Cook.
        Yes—that’s the way it works with Russell Cook.

    • ubrew12 Says:

      “If you look at alternate data sets like RSS,UAH and STAR, the world is not currently warming and has not for almost two decades.” The atmosphere is 1% of the ‘World’, and if you measure high up enough in the atmosphere, which these satellites typically do, the atmosphere is cooling, as it should be (for the stratosphere).
      “antarctica sea and land ice is increasing and has for decades.” Antarctica lost most of her sea ice extent between 1940 and 1980:

      and its debatable that land ice is increasing. That doesn’t seem to be what GRACE has found:
      http://tinyurl.com/qxrmmuf
      “Arctic sea ice has not changed much, about 5 percent since 1958” 5%?? Try 75%. Its lost about half its summer extent:
      http://tinyurl.com/p9dvho3
      And is only half as thick as it used to be:

      Should I mention sea level rise? It’s a little hard to fake that trend:

      Sea level is the closest our planet has to a traditional thermometer. How do you explain a rising sea level if the planet is not warming?

      But, forget all that. Are you really claiming that the Worlds not warming? Because, for most people, that’s their lived experience. I don’t think “who are you gonna believe, me, or your own lying eyes?” is the best denial strategy at this point.

  3. redskylite Says:

    “The first images to emerge from within Tasmania’s fire-affected World Heritage Area (WHA) have illustrated the level of destruction caused by bushfire, as experts warn such incidents are signs of a changing climate.”

    “We need for people to understand that this is not a natural event.”

    Ecologist Professor Jamie Kirkpatrick is also upset by the loss of alpine flora.

    “They’re killed by fire and they don’t come back,” said Professor Kirkpatrick.

    “It’s a species that would have been around in the cretaceous period. It’s regarded as one of the main reasons for listing Tasmania as a world heritage area.”
    ‘This is what climate change looks like’, fire ecologist says

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-30/fire-ravages-world-heritage-area-tasmania-central-plateau/7127300

  4. redskylite Says:

    At least 20,000 infected by Zika virus in Colombia
    Women account for 63.6 percent of the cases, of whom at least 2,000 are pregnant.

    http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/01/20000-infected-zika-virus-colombia-160130165855047.html


  5. […] – Kevin Trenberth sobre as temperaturas de 2015 […]


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