Hottest Month (again) Signals Global Warming Speed up is Here

August 21, 2015

Leading experts have been telling me that a strong new El Nino event could kick off a renewed surge in warming, with global temperatures beginning again to rise as fast, or faster, than they did from 1975 to 1998.
2015, so far, is blowing the record year of 2014 out of the water.
Looking at these frightening graphs, it’s hard not to be concerned. Indeed, a well known scientist told me in an email last night, “I am emotionally having a hard time because dear god, how can it be this hot?”

Joe Romm in Climate Progress:

Last month was not just the hottest July on record. Since July is “the warmest month of the year globally,” NOAA’s latest monthly State of the Climate Report, notes that July 2015 “was also the highest among all 1627 months in the record that began in January 1880.”

There never was any slow-down in surface temperature warming, and indeed the NOAA report confirms that 2015 is all but certain to crush previous global temperature records. That’s especially likely since the strong underlying global warming trend is being boosted by an emerging “Godzilla El Niño,” as a NASA oceanographer put it.

Here are some of the other records NOAA identifies for “combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces” in the dataset for the month of June from the years 1880 to 2015:

  • Hottest first seven months of any year “at 0.85°C (1.53°F) above the 20th century average, surpassing the previous record set in 2010 by 0.09°C (0.16°F).”
  • “Austria recorded its hottest July since national records began in 1767.”
  • “A high pressure dome over the Middle East brought what may be one of the most extreme heat indices ever recorded in the world on July 31st … a heat index of 74°C (165°F).”

It was especially hot for the 6 billion of us up here in the northern hemisphere, where the first seven months of 2015 were a remarkable 0.3°F warmer than the first seven months of any year on record — and nearly a half degree Fahrenheit warmer than any year before 2007:

noaajuly15

2014 was the hottest year on record. 2015 will easily top that. And it is entirely possible 2016 could beat 2015, as discussed here. The long-awaited speed up in global surface temperatures appears to be starting now, as heat that has been sequestered in the deep oceans begins to come out in the current El Nino.

12 Responses to “Hottest Month (again) Signals Global Warming Speed up is Here”

  1. Gingerbaker Says:

    I suppose the term “speed up” is useful rhetorically to counter the canard of a “pause”. But the so-called pause was false. And using the term “speed up” is equally misleading, unless positive feedbacks are kicking in significantly, and the rate of atmospheric heating is actually accelerating. But we have yet to see much documentation of this, at least to a statistical significance…. yet.

  2. earlosatrun Says:

    It was colder last night than yesterday in the daytime, ergo global warming is still a myth.

    /s

    165 F, eh? That’s the temperatures that cause meat to get cooked in the oven. (sure, at 170F, which is the lowest my stove goes, it’ll take a long time to cook the meat, but it’ll cook.)

    160 F is the temperature that you want a properly cooked piece of pork to be…

    So, when do us long pigs get roasted?

  3. MorinMoss Says:

    Last year I saw some charts that showed how cold the latter months would have to be for 2014 to NOT be the record or to be just a 21st century average year.

    Are we at the point where this is feasible for 2015 and has anyone done this yet?

    • greenman3610 Says:

      A pretty well informed guy has told me this:
      “Okay NOAA is out with July. It was 0.81C (+anomaly) which was right in line with my predictions made mid July. The current 12 month running mean is another record (0.82) and the Year to Date is a whopping 0.849C.

      In order NOT TO BREAK a record, we would have to run at 0.70C for the remaining five months. It is not going to happen.

      August…. Currently warmer than July, I put it in the 0.82-0.87C range.”

      • MorinMoss Says:

        Thanks but why does your expert consider that to be unlikely?
        Because of the brewing El Nino?

        An anomaly of +0.70 degC is still quite significant and there have been months in the past 7 or 8 years that were much cooler than that.

  4. redskylite Says:

    Watching the ever increasing anomaly trend, I have to remind myself our target is to stop before reaching +2°C. How will we do this ? the very most authoritative guideline I can find states this . . .

    “There is a range of emission pathways that could be followed theoretically to avoid different temperature levels. Probability analysis provides a quantitative estimate of the risk that a particular temperature level would not be exceeded. For example, limiting warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels with a relatively high certainty requires the equivalent concentration of CO2 to stay below 400 ppm. Conversely, if concentrations were to rise to 550ppm CO2 equivalent, then it is unlikely that the global mean temperature increase would stay below 2°C. Limiting climate change to 2°C above pre-industrial levels implies limiting the atmospheric concentration of all greenhouse gases. Based on new insights into the uncertainty ranges of climate sensitivity a stabilisation at 450 ppmv CO2 equivalent would imply a medium likelihood (~50%) of staying below 2°C warming. In many cases this would mean that concentrations would peak before stabilising, though whether this could be achieved practically was not considered.”

    Scientific Symposium on Stabilisation of Greenhouse Gases
    February 1st to 3rd, 2005
    Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
    The conference brought together over 200 participants from some 30 countries, mainly including
    scientists, and representatives from international organisations and national governments.

    Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change.

    The book has been prepared by an editorial board led by Hans
    Joachim Schellnhuber and contains extended and peer-reviewed
    versions of the papers presented at the conference.

    This is ten years ago, does anyone have more up to date authorative information ? If so please share.

    We are already around 400 ppm so we are passsing the high certainty to stay under 2°C. I like high certainty, don’t like meduim to low certainty at all, thank you.

    Do we believe the paper and the scientists who particpated (editorial board led by Hans
    Joachim Schellnhuber of Potsdam).

    It is time for plain speaking so we know exactly what we are in for. No more time to listen to doubters and denialists.

    It’s our lives and the life of every future person, plus all the other creatures that share our planet.

    Click to access NAK_BOO_2006_01_summary.pdf

  5. j4zonian Says:

    It’s become increasingly clear that 2°C above pre-industrial temp. is an irrelevant distraction—a politician’s ungentlemanly agreement to lie to the people of the world and collaborate in putting off doing anything real until the next gen. liars are in office.

    More and more research indicates that 1.5°C, even 1°C, is too high to be sure civilization can survive. In fact, it’s becoming clear that where we are now, .85°C, is having disastrous effects that may very well lead to tipping points that end civilization. It’s way past time to continue any such arguments about sensitivity, exact level we can reach without guaranteeing utter catastrophe, etc. etc. It’s time to get out in the streets, and peacefully blockade and shut down the fossil fuel industry and industrial agriculture.

  6. dumboldguy Says:

    Well said, except perhaps for the bit about “peacefully” etc..

    I have finally gotten to the range and patterned my 12 gauge Remington 870 Tactical. Nice patterns with OO Buck at 20 yards and beyond, and it consistently puts rifled slugs within 4 inches of center body mass at 25 to 30 yards.


  7. […] Escalating this fight as el-nino fueled extreme events continue to ramp up, and  scientists are about to confirm 2015 as the second-in-a-row hottest year on record by a mile, might not play out as he […]


Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: