2015 on Track to Crush Previous Temp Records

July 20, 2015

noaa2015globaljanjuneClimate Progress:

NOAA’s latest monthly climate report confirms that 2015 will crush previous global temperature records.

That’s especially true up here in the northern hemisphere, where the first half of 2015 is a remarkable 0.36°F warmer than the first half of any year since records started being kept 135 years ago.

Here are some of the other records for “combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces” in the dataset for the month of June from the years 1880 to 2015:

  • Hottest first half of any year (January-June) at “1.53°F (0.85°C) above the 20th century average … surpassing the previous record of 2010 by 0.16°F (0.09°C).”
  • Hottest June at “1.58°F (0.88°C) above the 20th century average … surpassing the previous record set last year in 2014 by 0.22°F (0.12°C).”

Here is the Northern Hemisphere plot of historical temperatures for January through June showing the huge jump this year:

Below, John Abraham has helpfully provided a graph of what global temp trends will look like at the end of the year if present conditions continue.gissthrujune15Climate Progress again:

So far, this year is blowing past every other year in terms of average global temperatures. And as NOAA notes, “2010 was the last year with El Niño conditions; however El Niño had ended by this point in 2010, while it appears to be continuing to mature at the same point in 2015.” El Niños generally lead to global temperature records, as the short-term El Niño warming adds to the underlying long-term global warming trend.

NOAA reports that the current “strengthening El Niño” has a better than 90 percent chance of lasting through the winter and “around an 80 percent chance it will last into early spring 2016.” So 2015 is almost certain to smash the global temperature record set in 2014 — and it is entirely possible if not likely that 2016 will break whatever records 2015 sets. It bears repeating we now appear to be in the early stages of the long-awaited jump in global warming.

6 Responses to “2015 on Track to Crush Previous Temp Records”

  1. John Says:

    Reblogged this on jpratt27.

  2. redskylite Says:

    Maybe it was because I was a capacity planner for many years during my working days, but those temperature anomaly charts are truly shocking to me.

    An exponential trend line projection shows a global 2°C (3.6°F) anomaly rise being met before the end of this century and well before in the northern hemisphere only. Was it mentioned that such a rise is very dangerous to us all ? (as no Earth upgrades are available at this time).

    I would expect to see these charts prominently displayed in all our respected and non-partisan news media, (instead of tucked away under environment and science sections). It is much more common to see happy beach or fountain scenes with bikini clad girls basking in the sun (when abnormally hot spells bake our domains), although there were much more sombre morgue scenes (again tucked away in the environment sections), during the recent Pakistan and Indian heatwaves. We are leaving it unbelievably late to counter. Wake up governments, you are accountable to those who elected you.

  3. Reblogged this on Notes from the Overground and commented:
    And so it goes on.

  4. MorinMoss Says:

    If the rest of the year were to come it as average, where would 2015 fall on the list of warmest years?

    • greenman3610 Says:

      depends on what you mean by “average”.
      Given the El Nino, it is highly unlikely that the rest of the year will cool down enough to keep from breaking a record. 2016 looks hot too, at least for the first quarter or so.

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