2015 Already Running Hot – Very Hot

April 16, 2015

NASA – March Global Temperature anomalies. Note Siberia and Western North America.

ClimateProgress:

NASA reported Tuesday that this was the hottest three-month start (January to March) of any year on record. This was the third warmest March on record in NASA’s dataset (and the first warmest in the dataset of the Japan Meteorological Agency).

The odds are increasing that this will be the hottest year on record. Last week NOAA predicted a 60 percent chance that the El Niño it declared in March will continue all year. El Niños generally lead to global temperature records, as the short-term El Niño warming adds to the underlying long-term global warming trend.

And in fact, with March, we have broken the record again for the hottest 12 months on record: April 2014 – March 2015. The previous record was March 2014 – February 2015 set the previous month. And the equally short-lived record before that was February 2014 – January 2015.

 Slate:

The news comes amid increasingly confident forecasts that there will be a strengthening El Niño for the remainder of 2015, which could spark a litany of impacts worldwide, not the least of which is the more efficient transport of heat from the oceans to the atmosphere. That liberated heat from the Pacific Ocean should boost global temperatures to never-before-recorded levels, making 2015 the warmest year ever measured.

Compared to last year at this time (when most of the weather world, myself included, was freaking out about a coming huge El Nino, but it didn’t pan out) the data looks even more convincing now.

In fact, off-the-charts warm water is already lurking just below the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean:

13 Responses to “2015 Already Running Hot – Very Hot”


  1. 1951-1980, Well … it’s very interesting and “correspondingly”, and the “selected” (neatly – always!) period…
    (http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/rate-of-change-of-global-average-temperature-1850-2007-in-oc-per-decade-5/image_xlarge – Rates of change of global average temperature (1850 to 2012) in ºC per decade…, HadCRUT4 , MLOST, GISS).

    For 1921-1950 (as the base period) we would have a similar result?

    Prof. H. von Storch (2015):
    “At least one finds no strong evidence showing that the long-term warming pause in the climate system has ended. The debate over this postulated ‘pause’ in the end has had a good side: Natural fluctuations have gotten more attention. We understand the climate a little bit better.”

    Whether in this side, too?

    • Linda Plano Says:

      Hi sem. Thanks for your comments. I had a little trouble with your English (which is nonetheless much better than my command of your native language), so went to the von Storch interview to understand better.

      A few questions for you:

      Where is 1951-1980 “selected” in this piece? It seems to me that the discussion is about 1976 (a local maximum) – 2015 and 1850 – 2015. Did I miss something?

      From 1920 – 1945, the trend was similar (1950 data appears relatively cold). However, doesn’t the presence of a shorter warming trend as part of the post-industrial trend since 1850 support rather than contradict anthropogenic warming? How does a cooling trend of 10 – 15 years between the two warming trends contradict it?

      The graph you reference says to me that we are long overdue for another -0.1 to -0.2 minimum. Perhwps the pause is the beginning of such a minimum. Perhaps the pause is as close as we are going to get to a cooling trend. How long does the pause (which is still above 0.1 deg/decades) have to continue for it to seem to you that warming is an issue?

      Actually, I guess a better question is, “What data would convince you that anthropogenic climate change is real and of a dangerous magnitude?”

      Thanks for reading! I look forward to your thoughtful answers.

      • uknowispeaksense Says:

        Better questions for those who deliberately choose which pseudo-experts they want to quote at the expense of the many actual experts is “How do you maintain willful ignorance for so long in the face of an overwhelming consensus? Is it something you have to work at or does it come naturally to you?”

      • dumboldguy Says:

        Linda,

        “Sem” goes by the European last-name-first convention. His name is Arkadiusz Semczyzak, and you can just call him Arkady and avoid all those Z’s.

        He is a denier who tends to post cherry-picked, out-of-date, and very localized data to try to make the same tired old points. Don’t expect any “thoughtful” answers.

  2. andrewfez Says:

    My summer started in March. Last summer ended very late. I’ve already got a strawberry growing on one of last year’s plants. June – September is going to be painful.

    • dumboldguy Says:

      My summer started a few days ago—-winter ended very late—only a few days before that—-no spring in NO VA this year, apparently. I’ve been out there hacking and whacking on the greenery in 80+ degree temps for a couple of days, and I’m too old for all this sweating.

      Good news is that there are several bumblebees more than usual flying their combat air patrols on my property. Perhaps this will be a good year for the bees? The honeybees have suffered a 99+% die-off over the past few decades, and the bumblebees haven’t done much better.

      • Linda Plano Says:

        Hey DOG, glad you’re having some fun digging in the garden. I just picked up a bunch of plants for my (unfortunately) north-facing balcony and was pleased to bump into a bumblebee at Home Depot. The honeybee issue is (yet another) serious problem, so good to see their cousins hanging around.

        Re: Arkady, thanks for the head’s up, but I did figure out that part already. 😉 It’s still part of my intermittent campaign to get someone who is a denier to talk to me about what issues he is concerned about, how we can find common ground on finding solutions, etc., etc. Continuing to tilt at windmills, I know. But I have to try.

      • andrewfez Says:

        Well, if you see any water out there, we’re willing to trade pistachios for the stuff. Maybe the job creators will build us a Keystone-H2O pipeline or something.

        Every time I visit some of my friends in St. Albans, WV, I drive by this large Bayer Crop Science facility in the ‘chemical valley’. I can imagine it’s brimming with the nicotine derivatives Harvard found were responsible for the bee colony collapse. But one thing i do know: You never get used to the smell, driving by that plant.

        Perhaps more organic gardeners will start keeping bee safe havens similar to what folks did with the eastern bluebird nest boxes in the 60’s onward. The post about the young lady raising food in the city showed some bee keeping action – the second video I’ve randomly come across on such lately.

  3. Linda Plano Says:

    So, Arkady, are you going to let DOG have the last word on you? Or can we talk about the points you raised?

  4. Linda Plano Says:

    Arkady, still waiting to hear from you to discuss your points…

    • andrewfez Says:

      If you’re looking for diehard denialists to talk to, Linda, try frolly. He used to plague greenman’s youtube channel back in the ‘climategate’ era. I don’t talk to these guys anymore because we’ve mostly won against their propaganda war, and now I find them boring. But when I did, I seemed to have had the most success when i would talk about the economy and investing. I run most of my own retirement investing in the equities markets. That gives me street credit in their eyes.

      https://www.youtube.com/user/1000frolly/videos

      The only reason these guys even bother talking about GW science is to avoid the conversation about how best to convert to renewables. But there’s nothing stopping you from ‘bringing it to them’ and assertively making the conversation expressly about that. The main tenant here is that energy efficiency is profitable. They will not argue against profit; it goes against their entire philosophy. Incidentally RMI’s strategy is about circumnavigating congress (i.e. no carbon tax), and looking for profit driven solutions (Reinventing Fire, Amory Lovins). That’s your middle ground.

      And knowing about traditional energy tax giveaways doesn’t hurt either:

      http://www.dblinvestors.com/documents/What-Would-Jefferson-Do-Final-Version.pdf [Venture capitalists’ historic look at energy subsidies (again, the denialists have a hard time stomaching going against capitalistic opinions)]

      http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/oil-tax-break.asp [Summary of tax goodies for oil investors]

      We used to have an electrical engineer, Christopher Arcus, that would post incites about the grid on here from time to time. I think he worked in green energy projects too (batteries and such). But I haven’t seen him post for about 4 months now…

      • Linda Plano Says:

        Thanks for the thoughtful comment, Andrew. Indeed, I agree with you on most of the specifics you give. But in spite of trying to talk to friends and relatives in this way, I’ve had no success. So I want to try finding other ways to connect (communicating new ideas is part of what I do for a living, and I’m frustrated not to have gotten any further).

        I’ve tried to engage three of them, I think, and the closest to an interaction I’ve gotten was, “I’m too busy, but why don’t you talk to Richard Lindzen since he lives near you.”

        Not very helpful, I’ll grant you, and the chances of success are not great, but I’m nothing if not stubborn! 🙂 I have a niece and a nephew whose parents believe that not only is climate change not anthropogenic in cause but there is no warming. So you see I have my work cut out for me.


  5. we need a mini ice age to cool us off and start new fresh lakes and rivers one day again


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