Tallying 2014: Closing in on a Record?

December 3, 2014

horserace

 

We’ll know in a few weeks where 2014 falls in the temperature record. It will be close, possibly a record in some datasets, and not others – setting up more head-exploding holiday party conversations with Uncle Dittohead and Aunt Teabag.

You’re welcome.

CNN:

The first ten months of 2014 have been the hottest since record keeping began more than 130 years ago, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

That may be hard to believe for people in places like Buffalo, New York, which saw a record early snowfall this year.

But NOAA says, despite the early bitter cold across parts of the United States in recent weeks, it’s been a hot year so far for the Earth.

With two months left on the calendar, 2014 is shaping up to be the hottest year on record.

The average global temperature between January and October has been 0.68 degrees Celsius (1.22 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than the 20th century’s average global temperature of 14.1 C (57.4 F).

NOAA’s analysis is an important “health gauge” indicating an ominous trend for the planet, says CNN meteorologist Derek Van Dam.

“It’s becoming increasingly more difficult to be a skeptic of the causes of our warming planet,” he says.

There was also one notable cold spot on the map.

The average temperature this year in the midsection of the United States, which saw a severe winter, has been below the 20th century average.

Economic Times – India:

NOAA said the ocean temperatures were also the warmest on record in October with an increase of 1.12 F over the 20th century average of 60.6 degrees.

“Record warmth for the year-to-date was particularly notable across much of northern and western Europe, parts of Far East Russia, and large areas of the northeastern and western equatorial Pacific Ocean,” NOAA said.

“It is also notable that record warmth was observed in at least some areas of every continent and major ocean basin around the world,” the agency said.

Of particular note, several countries have already seen an average temperature increase of more than 2 degrees Celsius in October 2014 compared to 20th century averages, including Australia, Germany, France, Switzerland and Sweden.

BBC:

This year could be the UK’s warmest for almost 250 years as measured by the world’s oldest temperature record, say researchers.

The 11 months from January to November have already been the warmest period on the Central England Temperature record.

And meteorologists from the University of Reading believe there is a 75% chance the year will turn out to be the hottest since the record began in 1772.

They say man-made climate change is at least partly to blame globally.

According to the CET record – which measures representative temperatures from a triangular area between Lancashire, London and Bristol – every month so far this year apart from August has been above the long-term average.

The researchers said 2014 would set a new record unless December temperatures were cool.

australiaspring

Australian Bureau of Meteorology – Special Statement:

Spring 2014 was Australia’s warmest on record (Figure 1, Table 1). Seasonal mean temperatures, averaged nationally, were 0.1 °C warmer than the previous record set just 12 months ago, during spring 2013. Temperatures were 1 .67 °C above the 1961–1990 average, the largest such departure from the long-term average observed since national records began in 1910. The previous record positive seasonal departure, set during autumn 2005, was 1.64 °C above the average.

Say you’re a smoker. You’ve been smoking for 40 years.
You have a nagging cough…

USAToday:

Eight out of 10 Americans now believe the climate is changing, according to a new survey conducted for Munich Re America, the world’s largest reinsurance firm.

“Our survey findings indicate that national sentiment over whether or not climatic changes are occurring has finally reached a tipping point,” said Tony Kuczinski, president of Munich Re America.

The main survey question — “In your opinion, do you believe that climate change is occurring?” — did not specify whether the changes were due to man-made or natural causes, according to Peter Hoeppe, head of Munich Re’s Geo Risks Research.

Hoeppe said that about 60% of people say the climate is changing due to man-made causes.

The results of the survey are based on 1,008 adults surveyed Oct. 9-12 by independent pollsters from ORC International, a market research agency.

The survey found that 71% of respondents believed greater use of alternative energy sources, such as solar or wind power, would be the most effective in the battle against climate change.

46 Responses to “Tallying 2014: Closing in on a Record?”

  1. omnologos Says:

    dumbold – there is no need to “deny” it has been a warm year in Britain. You should see how many people are protesting in the streets demanding a return to the good old cold!

    No, seriously, it’s global warming. Britain covers such a minuscule area of the globe, its temperatures can do anything they’d like and still have zero impact at a planetary level.

    If only we could all agree at what spatial and temporal level to keep our focus at, there’d be a lot less noise to this.

  2. mbrysonb Says:

    Love the regress, Omno– straight out of Phil 101. On that account, there’s no such thing as authority, so again, you’re clearly not looking for a real debate (which fits all too well with your approach here.

    A hint: going with science is a better bet, because science and the scientific method have a track record of reliability.

    • omnologos Says:

      Mbr- why would you need an authority to have a debate?

      You may as well believe you’re following science. How do you know you’re not fooling yourself?

      • dumboldguy Says:

        The laugh of the day. Omno asking ANYONE “How do you know you’re not fooling yourself?” BWA-Ha-Ha-Ha-Ha-Ha-Ha!

  3. jpcowdrey Says:

    Omno thinking:

    Central England temperatures are too variable and Central England’s spatial extent too minuscule to have any measurable effect on global temperatures. Ergo, increasing global mean temperatures can have no effect on Central England temperatures.

    I’d laugh if it wasn’t so sad.

    • omnologos Says:

      This is such an entertaining crew of commenters on this site. No wonder warmism is in retreat.

      Jp you’ve parodied yourself by writing the truth as parody. Global warming doesn’t have to occur everywhere and central England might get warmer or cooler or whatever else with no impact overall.

      Peter just posted something along those lines https://climatecrocks.com/2014/12/04/not-just-how-much-heat-but-where/

      This is extremely basic physics and statistics. Same for the inanity about additional data points..iIf the warming is centennial each single year has little effect. Again it’s middle school maths. But I can only envy the bliss of your ignorance.

  4. dumboldguy Says:

    Thank you, Jpc, for providing Omno yet another chance to parody a rational, thinking, and intelligent human being. He says:

    “GLOBAL warming doesn’t have to occur EVERYWHERE”.

    “….central England MIGHT get warmer or cooler OR WHATEVER ELSE with NO impact overall”.

    “This is extremely basic physics and statistics”. (Two topics that Omno does not understand very well, as the two preceding statements clearly show))

    “If the warming is centennial each single year has little effect”. (So let’s not use “each single year” to assemble a data set to analyze. Leave out the ones that we don’t “like”. Heaven forbid that we find some truth there. It’s much easier to speak in ignorance from our anal orifice as Omno does).

    “But I can only envy the bliss of your ignorance”. (Second laugh of the day. The irony is overwhelming. BWA-Ha-Ha-Ha-Ha-Ha-Ha!)

    • omnologos Says:

      You dislike my comments so much, you copy them verbatim. Thank you.

      Good also to see you are stuck in inanities. Of course a set is made of data points. What you don’t get is that the behaviour of the single data point has very little consequence. You can’t remember it but the topic is, does it matter if 2014 is a record year?

      it doesn’t by itself. Simple.

      It only matters if 2015 is another record, and 2016, and 2017, etc etc. We cannot know the future so…

      as for whose authority we refer to, unless any of you has been forced to become a warmist the authority is each individual by their own. A trivial concept difficult for the religious types.


  5. Omno is like that ancient bottle of wine that has been decorating your shelf for years. Its turned to vinegar long ago. The best thing you can do with it is ignore it or throw it away.

    • omnologos Says:

      Am not the one advocating massive climate related action. If you guys ignore the rest of humanity nothing changes for me.

      • skeptictmac57 Says:

        If you are rejecting what climate scientists (the majority) have concluded based on what action it implies, rather than what the data implies will happen to our ecosphere, then you are using motivated reasoning.
        If they are correct, then you are the one ignoring the rest of humanity.
        Also your argument is the go-to standard strawman argument from ‘skeptics’ these days, but ignores the fact that we will have to wean ourselves off carbon fuels at some point anyway, and since it will take many decades to do, so we might as well start (continue) now, even given the uncertainties of climate sensitivity. It is just that simple.
        No rational person wants to willfully wreck the economy, and early results looks like turning away from fossil fuels will have positive effects on the economy, free ourselves from dependence on tyrannical oil producers (and the related military burden), and reduce the impacts of Co2.

  6. pbjamm Says:

    omnologos’ comments are amazing in their length and lack of content. It must take a great deal of work to use so many words to say so little. I tip my hat to you sir, you are a true artist.

  7. Gingerbaker Says:

    “Am not the one advocating massive climate related action. ”

    Geez, what are to think? One day you’re denying climate change exists. The next day you say it does and we need to address it. And today you think you don’t think we need to address it.

    I can’t take this waffling, Omno! Have some pity for those of us who cling to your every word!! Please – you are our oracle – the man who can see an entire universe in the glint of a polished turd. Or something. Pick a position already.

    • skeptictmac57 Says:

      I’m still trying to understand just how omnologos derives his position on climate.
      It seems like he has intuited it without the input of scientists, but that raises the question of exactly how he has arrived at his contrarian stance without any data sets which come from scientists and their scientific instruments, and their scientific statistical analyses. Omniscience perhaps?

  8. jpcowdrey Says:

    maurizio, you sad little man.

    “…the authority is each individual by their own. A trivial concept difficult for the religious types.”

    A trivial belief of those whose religion is deification of the individual. They call themselves ‘libertarians’, but the reality is they’re just a sad bunch of solipsistic narcissists.

    When they deem their unfounded opinions rise to the status of ‘authoritative’, it is pathology bordering on megalomania.

    “You can’t remember it but the topic is, does it matter if 2014 is a record year?”

    No, maurizio, the topic was and is whether this statement is, like you are wont to say, inane:

    “If someone is misusing data to show X it makes no sense to use the same data to show the opposite of X”

    By the simplest rules of having a robust discussion, you lose.

    And that’s authoritive.

    http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/hadcrut4.jpg?w=500&h=270

  9. Gingerbaker Says:

    Logorrhea:

    “..warmism is in retreat”.

    and then:

    ” You can’t remember it but the topic is, does it matter if 2014 is a record year?

    it doesn’t by itself. Simple.

    It only matters if 2015 is another record, and 2016, and 2017, etc etc. We cannot know the future so…”

    My God – the stupidity of this train of thought. Sigh.

    WTF do you think is the record of global surface temperatures the past fifteen years, Omno? This is what it is:

    14 of the 15 warmest years on record have all occurred in the 21st century

    Suck on that nugget for a little while, and see if you can determine if it satisfies your own criteria.

    We “cannot know the future”?!?

    Of course we can know the future. It’s going to continue to get hotter!

    It is physically impossible for it NOT to continue to get hotter, because atmospheric [CO2] drives temperature. Perhaps you have heard of this relationship between CO2 and energy?

    It’s what we “warmists” call a scientific fact.


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