Melting Arctic Warms up Cold War
June 11, 2014
This image made available by the Norwegian Military on Thursday, June 5, 2014 shows a Norwegian vessel passing through the Bosporus in Istanbul Turkey, on March 2, 2014. The mysterious ship the size of a large passenger ferry left a Romanian wharf, glided through the narrow Bosporus that separates Europe and Asia, and plotted a course toward Scandinavia. About a month later, at the fenced-in headquarters of Norway’s military intelligence service, the country’s spy chief disclosed its identity. It was a $250 million spy ship, tentatively named Marjata, that will be equipped with sensors and other technology to snoop on Russia’s activities in the Arctic beginning in 2016. (AP Photo/Norwegian Military)
In early March, a mysterious ship the size of a large passenger ferry left a Romanian wharf, glided through the narrow strait that separates Europe from Asia and plotted a course toward Scandinavia. After a two-year refitting, the $250 million ship will begin its mission: to snoop on Russia’s activities in the Arctic.
“There is a demand from our political leadership to describe what is going on in this region,” said Norway’s military intelligence chief, Lt. Gen. Kjell Grandhagen.
As climate change eats away at the sea ice covering the North Pole, Arctic nations — the U.S., Canada, the Nordic countries and Russia— are fishing for secrets in East-West spy games echoing Cold War rivalries. The military dimension remains important but this time there’s an economic aspect, too: getting a leg up in the competition for potential oil and gas resources, along with new shipping lanes and fishing waters.
Most recent graph of current ice melt season from National Snow and Ice Data Center.
Summer sea ice reached a record low in 2012 and scientific projections suggest it could disappear completely this century. New areas of open water already have allowed more shipping through the Northern Sea Route north of Russia. The melt is also opening a new energy frontier — the Arctic is believed to hold 13 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30 percent of its untapped gas.
The most accessible resources lie within national boundaries and are undisputed. Security analysts say the risk of conflict lies further ahead, if and when the ice melts enough to uncover resources in areas where ownership is unclear. The U.S., Canada, Denmark, Norway and Russia are expected to have overlapping claims.
Critics say the U.S. lags in the race. A panel of retired generals recently found that despite a slew of planning documents, the Coast Guard has only one fully ready icebreaker and the U.S. Navy has few ice-hardened vessels that can operate in the Arctic, other than nuclear submarines.
“The geopolitical situation is ever more nuanced and complex. The risk of maritime events, or even unpredictable flashpoints, endemic to national security is growing,” retired Admiral Frank Bowman warned in the report.
Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed at a national security meeting his desire “to maintain Russia’s influence in the region and maybe, in some areas, to be ahead of our partners.”
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Even before the Ukraine crisis chilled cooperation between Russia and the West in the Arctic, the region’s Western nations were trading accusations of cyber-attacks and espionage with Russia and China:
—In Norway, security officials say the country’s Arctic plans and know-how, including cutting-edge technology for offshore drilling in harsh weather conditions, is attracting unwanted attention from foreign spies.
—In Canada, a naval officer received a 20-year prison sentence for spying for Russia.
—Police arrested a Toronto man in December for allegedly trying to supply China with sensitive information about Canada’s plans to build Arctic patrol ships, allegations China denies.
Climate Denial Crock of the Week 
June 11, 2014 at 8:15 pm
I’m going to state for the record that my WAG for this summer’s Arctic ice extent is going to be a new record low, ~10% that of 2012
June 11, 2014 at 11:17 pm
Morin,
OK, I’ll take the 85% ice extent of the 2012 low and also 85% of ice volume.
There are others paying attention as well:
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/06/the-day-the-ice-cap-died.html
http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/06/06/ten-cubic-kilometers-of-ice-lost-from-jakobshavn-glacier-in-less-than-one-month/
June 12, 2014 at 2:21 am
I thought I was going out on a limb by predicting a new low extent and haven’t been on Neven’s blog in a while.
I didn’t even bother factoring in solar activity in my WAG.
June 11, 2014 at 8:31 pm
That should be 10% BELOW the minimum extent of 2012.
Where’s the Edit button?
June 12, 2014 at 2:07 am
My prediction is somewhere between 2011 and 2012, but of ofc that would be betting safely on the mean. 🙂 – Some weather systems can certainly give us a new record low.
June 12, 2014 at 3:00 am
[…] Melting Arctic Warms up Cold War […]
June 12, 2014 at 10:34 am
I’m voting for a new record low in 2014 also. More importantly for this post, that “spy ship” looks like it might be a whaling factory ship in disguise. JCL, can you get us a photo of the stern? If it has a ramp, it’s a WIWBO ship—-“whales in, whaleburgers out”.
June 12, 2014 at 5:21 pm
DOG, I think that it really is a ‘spy’ ship. There are some other photos on-line, though not a clear stern shot, and I found an article from the shipyard describing the new ship. It will likely be named Marjata IV and it would be the fourth intelligence ship of that name. The faceted topsides are consistent with low radar signature design, and if coated with a Radar Absorbing Material (RAM) then the ship would be pretty stealthy.
June 12, 2014 at 6:34 pm
Yes, you are right on with all that. I too noticed the “stealthy” angles and had the same thoughts. It’s actually a pretty fancy ship for a small country.
I was just kidding about the whaleburgers and it being a factory ship—-merely trying to get a rise out of John Christian L. You may recall a discussion he and I had about Norwegian “soul food” some threads back. I was taking him to task about the addiction some Norwegians apparently have for whale meat.
June 13, 2014 at 6:41 am
I am not sure Norwegians are very addicted to whale meat (I have personally only tasted it once) – I believe there is just a minority of fishers who want to make money from whaling still, just like any other business. There are many fishermen in the world who similarly e.g. don’t care much for making the cod fish extinct as long as they can make money from them to the last fish – they will just move on to the next species to fish to extinction.
As for Norwegian investment in boats, we also have some good minesweeper ships busy with the conflict that in Ukraine to make our Baltic neighbours feel a bit safer:
http://m.db.no/2014/04/18/nyheter/innenriks/utenriks/ukraina/nato/32880761/?www=1
(gotta google translate that one yes)
June 16, 2014 at 12:37 pm
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