with Peter Sinclair
Paul Douglas reminds us, yes, the planet is warming. Heh, heh. I love making denier heads explode. Paul’s such a low key guy, but I think he does, too.
[…] Paul Douglas reminds us, yes, the planet is warming. Heh, heh. I love making denier heads explode. Paul's such a low key guy, but I think he does, too. […]
NPR’s ATC program featured an interview with climate scientist Ken Caldeira tonight on ocean acidification, coral reef disstress, climate change science, etc.
Earth Day Essay by Dr Jennifer Francis, “The Changing Face of Mother Nature”
Dr. Francis: “Extreme weather is also chiseling fissures and gaping holes in the climate deniers’ bunker, leaving a crumbling foundation for their arguments.”
Right (at the beginning) I will not cite any skeptics – deniers …
“Obviously, loss of Arctic sea ice is not having the same impact each winter; such factors as El Niño/La Niña, the phase of the 11-year sunspot cycle, and the amount of snow cover in Siberia also have strong influences on the winter weather pattern that sets up. Cold air is less likely to spill out of the Arctic during a solar maximum, as we are now headed towards, so this factor may tend to reduce the odds of getting big cold blasts in the U.S. during the coming two winters. However, cold air may be more likely to spill out of the Arctic in winter due to the decades-long pattern of warming and cooling of Atlantic Ocean waters known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A 2012 study by NASA scientists found that the warm phase of the AMO (like we have been in since 1995) causes more instances of atmospheric blocking, where the jet stream gets “stuck” in place, leading to long periods of extreme weather. It will be interesting to see how all these factors play out in the coming years. “
You should know that in the warm phase of the PDO and high solar activity, the decrease of sea ice extent for the Arctic – AA, for decades did not cause such changes in the yet stream, that would more attendance harsh winters in the NH (but rather vice versa).
Winter 2006/2007 in Europe was extremely heat …
Winter cold started in 2008 together with: the cool PDO + more attendance cold winter NAO, with extremely low solar minimum (lowest since 1924) …
… and ongoing by the present very weak solar cycle 24.
I recommend: Lockwood et al. Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity? (2010) + the subsequent comments (http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/5/2/024001/fulltext, and http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100414/full/news.2010.184.html).
Marsz & Staszynska (2009 – Oceanic control of the warming processes in the arctic – a different point of view for the reasons of changes in the arctic climate):
“We consider that, to date, natural processes have played the dominant role. Of course, this does not necessarily mean that some extraneous influence on the further course of this evolution would not be controlled by processes generated by human activity, but this factor has yet to be demonstrated.”
So it is better to Dr. J. F. was at the (prudent) conclusions:
“Thus it is possible that Arctic sea ice loss and the associated increases in jet stream amplitude could be partially responsible for some of the recent unusual extreme weather patterns observed in the Northern Hemisphere…”
“Note that significant changes to the upper-level atmospheric circulation in spring were not observed, so springtime extreme weather events like the 2011 flooding and tornadoes in the U.S. cannot be connected to changes in the Arctic sea ice or high-latitude snow cover using this research.”
… and it is further dealt with the science and not the propaganda …
P.S. A more complete analysis (including the impact LTC) will be sent by me to Dr. Francis.
Good luck with your Maunder Minimum studies. I personally prefer the excitement of the Carrington Effect. 🙂
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