BEST Official Announcement: Warming Man-Caused. Solar Influence “negligible”.

July 29, 2012


BEST Project Press Email Announcement:

Berkeley Earth has just released new results, showing that the average temperature of the Earth’s land has risen by 1.5 °C over the past 250 years. The good match between the new temperature record and historical carbon dioxide records suggests that the most straightforward explanation for this warming is human greenhouse gas emissions.


The new analysis from Berkeley Earth goes all the way back to 1753, about 100 years earlier than previous groups’ analysis.  The limited land coverage prior to 1850 results in larger uncertainties in the behavior of the record; despite these, the behavior is significant.   Sudden drops in the early temperature record (1750 to 1850) correspond to known volcanic events.


In its 2007 report the IPCC concluded only that “most” of the warming of the past 50 years could be attributed to humans. It was possible, according to the IPCC, that increased solar activity could have contributed to warming prior to 1956.  Berkeley Earth analyzed about 5 times more station records than were used in previous analyses, and this expanded data base along with its new statistical approach allowed Berkeley Earth to go about 100 years farther back in time than previous studies.  By doing so, the Berkeley Earth team was able to conclude that over 250 years, the contribution of solar activity to global warming is negligible.


You can access the results here:


A two-page summary for the media is available here:


Berkeley Earth’s data can be accessed here:  We hope to add daily data soon.


We have also added a feature to look up data by location (continent, country, state, or city), available here:


In making these results and data accessible to professional and amateur exploration we hope to encourage further analysis. If you have questions or reflections on this work, please contact, We will attempt to address as many inquiries as possible, and look forward to hearing from you.


Best regards,





Elizabeth Muller

Founder and Executive Director

Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature


22 Responses to “BEST Official Announcement: Warming Man-Caused. Solar Influence “negligible”.”

  1. guylacrosse Says:

    So now we can all just get behind finding solutions instead of debating if it’s happening and/or human caused?

  2. mrsircharles Says:

    No wonder Watts is desperate. He’s putting up a “study” today considering himself as a scientist…

    • mrsircharles Says:

      We will all wait for the peer review 🙂

    • otter17 Says:

      I see it as a lame PR attempt to negate BEST. From what it sounds he hasn’t even found a journal yet.

      • MorinMoss Says:

        The old pal review trick. It’s only disreputable when it’s warmistas that are doing it, right, TonyBoy?

        • Watts decried Muller for not waiting for peer review. Glad to see Watts can be flexible on this peer review stuff. 🙂 He’s only going to have to become more flexible over time. It is a long walk back from stupid.

          Mind you in his “Squirrel!” PR fluff for his paper he does at least admit to increasing temperatures. Many of his acolytes still don’t.

          • skeptictmac57 Says:

            Doesn’t it just tickle you to read the lukewarmer comments declaring “Nobody ever said that the planet isn’t warming,and that human emitted Co2 is not partly to blame,we just question how much, and is it really that bad”. Yeah,that’s right,no one ever said it’s cooling,ice age imminent,it’s the sun,human’s are arrogant if they think we could possibly alter our climate etc etc…yeah,NO ONE EVER said any of those things…right?

          • greenman3610 Says:

            its like trying to find somebody who vote for George Dubya.

  3. The whole point of AGW denialism is to extend the debate for as long as possible. This is about protecting 1) profits, 2) philosophies of governance and economics, and 3) egos more than the science. I don’t see how one more paper confirming AGW will have any more effect than the thousands before it. It’s not “real science” to these guys unless it confirms their biases. There’s always a reason found to discard any of the multitude of studies and supporting data for AGW.

    They’ll drop the “it’s not warming” and “it’s not us” stuff when we have a year significantly hotter than 1998 with no other blameable cause like El Nino or solar activity (the fact that 1998 was a major El Nino year won’t matter to them). Then they’ll casually move the goal posts to a mild acceptance of AGW theory (saying “we understood that it was real all along”) and they’ll ride the notion that the warming won’t be a net negative for as long as they can.

    It ain’t over until the fat lady doesn’t eat for several weeks. In other words, the AGW “debate” won’t end until the effects of climate change provide such overwhelming evidence that the public simply won’t buy the denial any more. I think there’s a pretty high bar for that, so I don’t see it happening any time soon.

  4. rayduray Says:


    Remembering the fun we had a while back with the “We’ll adapt.” tagline, here’s notice of a booming new industry of the future, lawn painting:

    Truly, one of the green industries. [wink]

  5. Pielke Sr gushes over both Watts and his new paper while roundly dismissing Mueller and his.

    What’s up with Pielke Sr? For a long time I’ve looked to him for some moderating balance, but I’m getting the sense that he’s deteriorating. What’s up with that?

  6. Professor Richard Muller was on The Rachael Maddow Show last evening:

    If that isn’t the correct link, it is the July 30th show, next to last segment.


    • skeptictmac57 Says:

      Hmmm…a cynical person might deduce from that segment that the Koch’s are betting heavily on natural gas investments in the third world.

  7. agfosterjr Says:

    The BEST study has twice failed peer review, and is not likely to be reconsidered. As usual, the Muellers are spouting off junk science catered to the gullible. For knowledgable discussion see

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