“This is a view of the Future. So Watch Out!” – Kevin Trenberth on PBS NewsHour

July 3, 2012

Lack of water, “the great air conditioner”, is causing unusually high temperatures and extreme weather events in the United States, Kevin Trenberth with the National Center for Atmospheric Research tells Judy Woodruff.  Dr. Trenberth knocks it out of the park here.

It’s striking that Judy Woodruff, the interviewer maintains to the end an all-to-characteristic checked-out journalist view from nowhere – “Well, that ought to be something to keep you scientists busy.”  Earth to Judy – Colorado is burning. Trenberth, to his credit does not let is slide.

NewsHour update on the recent rash of storms and heat below.


69 Responses to ““This is a view of the Future. So Watch Out!” – Kevin Trenberth on PBS NewsHour”

  1. […] the globe. Kevin Trenberth put it rather nicely in an interview with PBS Newshour in the US: “This is a view of the future, so watch out.” John Vidal in The Guardian sums up the situation rather well: …how much more extreme […]

  2. jdouglashuahin Says:

    “Stockholm sees coldest June day in 84 years”
    Published: 3 Jun 12 10:59 CET
    Indeed, you could be excused for thinking that the current chill is more like winter than summer. It was actually colder in the capital yesterday than on Christmas Eve.

    Are the current weather extremes really all that unusual? Seems like there is always a lecture about the difference between weather and climate that comes from the anthropogenic global warming crowd, especially if it is a hot event, then it is for sure climate change; but, when it is a cold event or three extremely cold winters in Mongolia, then it is naturally only a weather event.

    I will not debate the ones that choose to allow their knowledge of this subject; anthropogenic global warming/climate change or what ever they now want to call it who have exposed themselves by their comments on the subject on these threads; but, instead defer to some people that I agree with and that I feel are much more astute than most that spout off on this subject here. You could learn much from what this esteemed scientist has to say on this subject, but will you listen?
    Nobel prize winner — Ivar Giaever — “climate change is pseudoscience” (Ivar Giaever:  Nobel Prize in Physics)
    [UPDATE: Watch Giaever speak – the whole speech – it’s excellent. h/t Roberto Soria]

    “What the Earth Knows
    Understanding the concept of geologic time and some basic science can give a new perspective on climate change and the energy future
    By Robert B. Laughlin, Nobel prize winner in Physics.

    Give me the thoughts on the subject by an alarmist that has won a similar prize for scientific endeavor.

    This is a site that what’s his name from Australia might be interested in.

    HadCRUT3 Diagnostics: global average (NH+SH)/2 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh%2Bsh/index.html

    • greenman3610 Says:

      if you are going to cite Glaever, a contrarian codger outside of his area of expertise, who says the earth has not warmed, and
      the Met Office, a group of specialized professionals in the field who say unequivocally that it
      has indeed warmed, then you’ll have to explain who you think is right, and who is
      most credible.

      • jdouglashuahin Says:

        You mistakenly say “if you are going to cite Glaever, a contrarian codger outside of his area of expertise, who says the earth has not warmed,” when he never said that the earth has not warmed. He clearly states that the earth has warmed: “I found that the general belief is that the average surface temperature over the whole earth for a whole year has increased from ~288 oK to 288.8 oK in roughly 150 years, i.e. 0.3% and that it is due to increased CO2. If this is true, it means to me that the temperature has been amazingly stable.”

        Then you seem to want to disparage the good Dr. over lacking in knowledge about this particular subject. If he won a Nobel Prize in Physicists for “experiments demonstrated the existence of an energy gap in superconductors, one of the most important predictions of the BCS theory of superconductivity, which had been developed in 1957”. I do not think that dealing with this topic is necessarily out of his scope of understanding and as far as being a “contrarian codger” goes, he seemed to do very well delivering his presentation with out a teleprompter and in a language other than his first language, which is Norwegian. He did not mistakenly mention that there are 57 states in the US nor did he call a Navy Corpsman a ‘Corpse Man’ so it seems that he is very much alert.

        You want to place education in this field as a priority but is it when Al Gore, who seems to be a spokesman for this scam has no scientific training, Pachauri, who heads up the IPCC, is a railroad engineer before he went on to become an economist and Steve Running, who shared in the Nobel Peace Prize, holds a “B.S. in  Botany; Oregon State University, Corvallis, 1972, M.S. in Forest Management; Oregon State University, Corvallis, 1973 and a Ph.D. in Forest Ecophysiology; {what ever that is}, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, 1979.
        “Plant ecophysiology is an experimental science that seeks to describe the physiological mechanisms underlying ecological observations.”? At least he has been exposed to science but is a long ways from being a climatologist, but then again, how much difference do credentials make when the head of the IPCC is an economist? William Schlesinger acknowledges that 80% of IPCC members have no “dealing with climate”

        Then you question why I referenced this link. You will notice that since around 2003 the annual series smoothed with a 21-point binomial filter shows a distinct drop in temperature and I guess they were not able to hide this decline.
        HadCRUT3 Diagnostics: global average (NH+SH)/2 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh%2Bsh/index.html

        You will notice when you open this link below that atmospheric CO2 has been steadily increasing since 1960 and, if this is true and you maintain that it is the driver of the earth’s temperature, then why have these temperature now dropped?
        Full Mauna Loa CO2 record


    • MorinMoss Says:

      Climatologists have been saying for a long time that the onset of warming will produce wild swings of weather events.
      So long as we have glaciers, ice caps, etc, there will be cold weather and some will be extreme.

      The real question is whether we’re seeing more high temp extremes on a global scale and – this is particularly important – if the nightly temps are rising particularly quickly.
      This is one of the most touted markers of a warming climate that’s driven by GHGs and I have noticed that it’s been true where I live for the last decade.

    • Martin Lack Says:

      Doug, regarding Stockholm: What the f**k is the point in responding to a post outlining how extreme weather of all kinds is now more likely, by citing examples of unusual weather?

      • jdouglashuahin Says:

        One would certainly expect a response like the one that Martin offered up and I will answer it with out a thinly veiled departure to expletives. I had been under the impression that it takes at least 30 years to establish a trend in the weather patterns that could be interrupted as climate going forward. It seems with Martin that any weather event, whether hot or cold, is an argument for climate change and using that basis, how could one ever be mistaken?

        Well Martin that is not the way it is.
        High Temperature for Thursday, July 5, 2012
        (as received by 8 pm EDT July 5)
        111 at Death Valley, CA
        Please recall Martin, that the all time record for North America is (U.S.), Death Valley, Calif.; July 10, 1913 (134F) & also please be advised that record stood as the world high record until: World (Africa) El Azizia, Libya; Sept. 13, 1922, (136F) Is this weather or climate?

        I hope that you can phantom this on your own but Silver Lake, Oregon is part of the United States and relatively, speaking, is not all that far from Death Valley. “I’m not sure if it’s statistically significant,” Chris Bowman, a NWS meteorologist in Kansas City, told The Times. “We’re just in a period of pretty intense heat. It happens.”; but, I’m sure that you and your kind want to make more of it than that.

        Low Temperature for Thursday, July 5, 2012
        (as received by 8 pm EDT July 5)
        26 at Silver Lake, OR

        Martin, if this catastrophic warming that you foam at the mouth over is so serious, then why is it not felt in at least all areas of the US? One would think that it would be manifesting its self in the southern hemisphere also, but that is obviously not the case and blows your hypotheses about agw to shreds and there has always been extreme WEATHER events happening, or haven’t you noticed what happened in New Orleans in 2005? There have been no serious hurricanes since despite warnings from delusional people that this would happen every year from then on out.

        Peter should greet this one with a certain amount of excitement.
        20 Biggest Snowfall Totals in North America | The 2011/12 Season
        #1 – Alyeska, AK = 962”
        #2 – Mt. Baker, WA = 800″

        Agricultural emergency declared in NEA Argentina
        Serious frosts in NEA Argentina have led to a declaration of agricultural emergency and disaster for the region.

        “We’re having in Argentina a series of Antarctic polar waves that has people shuddering. In Ushuaia an entire neighbourhood had to be evacuated because the cold froze water pipes and blocked natural gas valves. No heating, no cooking, streets with 2.5 metres (8 ft) of snow. In two weeks snowed more than an entire normal winter season.”

        • Martin Lack Says:

          You have my unreserved apologies for allowing my frustration with your verbose repetition of cherry-picked pseudo-science to get the better of me.

        • uknowispeaksense Says:

          Are you mentally retarded or something? Your mindnumbingly stupid displays of wilful ignorance seem to point to that conclusion. It has been explained to you time and time again how your moronic cherrypicking of individual weather events is meaningless and human induced climate change is measured by the increasing frequency and severity of weather extremes along with the various other more direct measures which you also wilfully deny.

          I don’t wish to be excused either for addressing you this way. Sometimes oxygen thieves and morons like you need be told that they are in fact oxygen thieves and morons. Do us all a favour and demonstrate how safe CO2 is, by sticking a plastic bag over your head and inhaling deeply. About 10 minutes should do it.

          • greenman3610 Says:

            understand the frustration. the poster you respond to is pushing the limits of my open door policy. I suspect there’s a bit of dementia involved.
            no need to get that nasty tho.

          • uknowispeaksense Says:

            Apologies Peter. Clearly your well of tact and diplomacy is deeper than mine but sometimes a spade needs to be called a spade. By engaging in reasonable debate with them you just make them believe that their garbage is legitimate. They might have the right to their own opinion, but they don’t have the right to their own truth, especially when their collective distorted version of the truth influences the scientifically illiterate decision makers whose decisions will ultimately affect the world my children and grandchildren will inherit.

          • jdouglashuahin Says:

            I hope it was that my reply to Mike was too long that caused it to not appear.

          • greenman3610 Says:

            You are catching on.
            If you continue to post book length word salads I will block them.
            This is my blog. I give wide latitude for discussion.
            Make a point. discuss. then make another point.
            If you want your own blog, wordpress is easy to use.

      • jdouglashuahin Says:

        “Stockholm sees coldest June day in 84 years”
        You for some reason get all agitated over this report that I submitted and coming from you, one need not wonder at why. There have been WEATHER extremes for a s long as humans have been recording them and that was before your devil, CO2, ever entered the narrative. Imagine that.

        I do not know how one could see a bigger extreme in the same year as this below. Note the date and it happened 76 years ago and you wonder why I’m skeptical of your nonsense and current “cherry picking” and that is what this site has become; “cherry picking”. I also ask why NO new all-time high records have been set for specific continents.

        Highest Temperature
        The highest temperature recorded in North Dakota is 121°, Fahrenheit. This record high was recorded on July 6, 1936 at Steele.
        Lowest Temperature
        The lowest temperature in North Dakota, -60°, was recorded on February 15, 1936 at Parshall.

        • MorinMoss Says:

          So you’re cherrypicking from the 1936 North American cold wave, while not mentioning that the preceding winters were some of the mildest in US history?

          Since you seem to be fascinated with temp extremes, here’s a productive exercise for you.

          Find and compare, for Steele, North Dakota, the daily highs with the overnight lows for Jun 8 – Jul 8, 1936 and compare them to the same for this year and last.

          Since the town’s area and population has barely changed since, I imagine the UHI that deniers love so much shouldn’t be a factor.

  3. jdouglashuahin Says:

    How’s this for a point?
    “It has been explained to you time and time again how your moronic cherrypicking of individual weather events is meaningless …..” Is what follows not “Cherry picking”?
    “Welcome to the Rest of Our Lives”
    “Still don’t believe in climate change? Then you’re either deep in denial or delirious from the heat.”

    “Over the 11-year span from 1930-1940, a large part of the region saw 15% to 25% less precipitation than normal. This is very significant to see such a large deficit over such a long period of time. This translates to 50 to 60 inches of much needed moisture which never arrived that decade. For an area which only averages less than 20 inches of precipitation a year, deficits like this can make the region resemble a desert. Deficits like this are the equivalent of missing three entire years of expected precipitation in one decade. Figure 2 is a map of the precipitation departures from normal in terms of a percentage of normal (total precipitation divided by normal precipitation) for the Dust Bowl region for 1930 to 1940.”

    • Martin Lack Says:

      “How’s this for a point?”… Not good (it has to be said).

      This appears to be a collection of quotes (which I can barely be bothered to disentangle and/or attribute). However the main quote is clearly from the NOAA(?) If so, I should like to know how the problems being created by below-average rainfall in the south-western States of the USA (now into its 18th year, is it?) compare?
      Water Usage Far Exceed Sustainability Level in the Desert Southwest, US

      • jdouglashuahin Says:

        “It has been explained to you time and time again how your moronic cherrypicking of individual weather events is meaningless …..” Is what follows not “Cherry picking”?
        “THE MID-JULY 1995 DERECHOS:

        “This is a view of the Future. So Watch Out!” – Kevin Trenberth on PBS NewsHour
        “Severe drought in 1934 covered 80% of the country, compared with 25% in 2011
        In June, 1934 the entire country had triple digit heat. We didn’t come anywhere close to that this summer.”

        Click to access mwr-062-06-0212.pdf

        Martin: You demonstrate your inability to look any further than the Skeptical Science site for your information. Notice my source is NOAA and for some reason you can not even understand that given your (?). That shows, for one thing, a total lack of interest in finding this information on your own and also, as is said: “A person that will not stand for something will fall for anything.” and that is why I’m even bothering addressing you is because I recognize this whole anthropogenic global warming thing for what it is, a scam for a few to gain control over the many by denying them energy.

        • uknowispeaksense Says:

          Since you are using my quote in an address to someone else I should probably wade in again.

          Tell me genius, during your cherrypicked year of 1934, what was the weather (note: not climate) doing in Australia, Russia, Europe, Africa, the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, The Southern Ocean, the Atlantic, the Arctic, the Antarctic, South America and all those other places also making the remaining 90% of the globe?

          Australia: http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi
          The globe: http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/global/timeseries.cgi

          But to answer your question if what Trenberth was doing was cherrypicking, the answer is no. He is merely higlighting that should we continue down the same path, this sort of thing will likely become more common. He is merely offering an example. The difference is though, while his is merely an example of a phenomena that is occurring everywhere (extreme weather), what you are trying to do is say, “At this one point in time and in this one place, it was warmer than now, therefore there is no global warming today. You neglect or ignore the overwhelming evidence to the contrary and extrapolate your cherrypicked datapoint and try to apply it way beyond acceptable limits.

          If you don’t get it now, you never will.

        • Martin Lack Says:

          Now that’s more like it, Doug. Speak plainly so we can understand you:
          “…because I recognize this whole anthropogenic global warming thing for what it is, a scam for a few to gain control over the many by denying them energy.”

          So now the truth is out there. You are just another conspiracy theorist in need of yet another reality check, the antidote to which I am sue I have provided before but, never mind, here it is for you again:
          “There is simply no evidence for your left-wing conspiracy to over-tax and over-regulate people (so as to make everyone poorer). Whereas, there is a great deal of evidence for a right-wing conspiracy to under-tax and under-regulate industry (so as to make a few people richer).”

          Your conspiracy theory is an invention of your mind; whereas the conspiracy to deny downplay and dismiss the reality of climate change is a well documented fact; and a well-oiled machine. What is almost unbelievable is just how so many otherwise intelligent people continue to be fooled by it; and/or refuse to see it.

          • jdouglashuahin Says:

            Martin; I am surprised that you actually can understand something. Can you understand that if, through what ever means that is put into force, the supply and price of energy is controlled by a few then what else matters in a developed society? What does a Caaarbon Tax such as what Australia recently put on producers of energy and the citizens of Australia do to the world’s climate when China and India emit actual pollution unchecked? This Tax will soon be repealed because people see the dismal effects it is having and for what? The only new ideas taxes create are ways to cheat and not pay them. Humanity did not advance beyond the stone age because of a tax on stones or advance beyond the age of sailing ships to steam powered vessels because of a tax on sail cloth or mast but because of innovation and people that were free to think and design without government interference.

            Global warming ‘a myth’ – Russian academic Mar 26, 2012 19:14 Moscow Time
            “Russian geoscientist Professor Nikolai Dobretsov has called attention to the fact that after decades of decline, the Arctic Ice Cap is into its fifth straight year of growth.

            While we are discussing Russia it is worth noting that even the Russians see through this carbon tax nonsense, but evidently not the fools in Australia and also the same types in the developed west that want to gain more CONTROL over energy.
            “That brings us to Cap and Trade. Never in the history of humanity has a more idiotic plan been put forward and sold with bigger lies. Energy is the key stone to any and every economy, be it man power, animal power, wood or coal or nuclear. How else does one power industry that makes human life better (unless of course its making the bombs that end that human life, but that’s a different topic). Never in history, with the exception of the Japanese self imposed isolation in the 1600s, did a government actively force its people away from economic activity and industry.”

            “I am ashamed of what climate science has become today.” Research Chemist William C. Gilbert.

            If you dare, go to this site and see what actual scientist are doing.
            The thunderstorm thermostat hypothesis: How clouds and thunderstorms control the Earth’s temperature
            Go to this:
            The thermodynamic relationship between surfacetemperature and water vapour concentration in the troposphere
            William C. Gilbert (USA) Page 263

          • Martin Lack Says:

            You may be a genius, Doug; and have spotted what everyone else has failed to see. If so, your Nobel Prize for Physics surely awaits you. However, I would not book any flights to Oslo until contacted by the Nobel Committee to confirm your success.

            Personally, I think Michael Ashley was right about people like you and your (probable) hero, geology Professor Ian Plimer: ‘No Science in Plimer’s Primer’, The Australian (9 May 2009)

        • MorinMoss Says:

          Seriously? A “paper” by Eschenbach?!? His “science” is better than Monckton’s, but who wants to be measured by that yardstick.

    • greenman3610 Says:

      ok, you’re getting it. focusing is good.
      Now my response – the US temperature anomalies of the 1930s were a regional phenomenon.

      what’s different now is that
      we have a global average temp that is unequivocally up,
      in every temperature data set.
      we have arctic ice minimum down almost half in the last 30 years,
      we have ice sheets in negative balance,
      we have changes in animal, bird, and plant ranges, biological and
      migration habits,
      we have warmer nights, warmer poles, cooler stratosphere,
      more intense precipitation and hydrological events globally
      and we have, give or take, 100 ppm more Co2

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