Fire and Ice: Jet Stream Continues Stubborn Behavior

January 17, 2014

Stubborn Jet stream behavior has brought historic drought and january wild fire to california.
Scientists are finding evidence that “stuck” jet stream events may be related to human caused climate change.

Meanwhile, just as the east shakes off the “polar vortex” of misplaced arctic air that blanketed the area in early january, yet another cold air bubble is gathering.

Capital Weather Gang:

The remainder or January is expected to be colder than normal, sometimes downright frigid.  The pattern is very similar to the pattern during the first week of January when temperatures plunged more than 20 degrees below normal in the so-called polar vortex event.   This time, the cold could stick around for a longer duration.

The European model’s (ensemble mean) pattern at high altitudes (500 mb, or around 18,000 feet) through the end of the month exhibits a huge ridge of high pressure over western North America and a big dip in the jet stream over the East Coast.

Referencing the maps below, remember that the high altitude winds parallel the thin black height lines generally running from west to east.   Therefore, weather systems will be diving southeastward from Canada towards the East Coast during this January 21-31 period, with arctic air frequently  following them.

The maps below show the average pattern for the 5-day periods ending January 26 (top) and January 30 (bottom).  Long-range forecasters like using 5-day averages because the longer wavelength features, the ones easiest for the models to forecast, stand out.  In this case, the averages are indicating that the pattern changes very little during the period and that the “nefarious” polar vortex is displaced well southward of its normal position.

Democracy Now video includes Jeff Masters.

About these ads

14 Responses to “Fire and Ice: Jet Stream Continues Stubborn Behavior”


  1. One of the best resources (in an easy-to-understand manner) for polar vortex and stratospheric sudden warming events is by Patrick Martineau:

    http://p-martineau.com/2014/01/13/a-new-wave-of-interest-for-the-polar-vortex-and-stratospheric-sudden-warming-events/

    Patrick Martineau

    • dumboldguy Says:

      Easy to understand perhaps (if you read parts twice), but so dry my eyeballs cracked while reading it. LOL Patrick needs to “jazz it up” just a bit if he wants to compete with Peter in the infowars.

  2. stephengn1 Says:

    Can hardly imagine what California is in for this summer – Hoping I’m wrong.

  3. NevenA Says:

    Over here in southeastern Austria we’ve had one week so far that looked somewhat like winter, with temps going below 0 °C. Other than that it’s been truly balmy, with as much as 13 °C today. Well into January!

    I know I shouldn’t be looking outside my window for proof for or against AGW, but if this keeps up another couple of weeks, we’ll have had a winter without winter. And I wouldn’t be surprised if this is also related to what’s happening in the US.


  4. I like to call it the Mangled Jet Stream ;)


  5. […] Stubborn Jet stream behavior has brought historic drought and january wild fire to california. Scientists are finding evidence that "stuck" jet stream events may be related to human caused climate change.  […]


  6. […] 2014/01/17: PSinclair: Fire and Ice: Jet Stream Continues Stubborn Behavior […]


Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 1,663 other followers

%d bloggers like this: