Dr. Andrew Dessler – Climate Science Meets the Gold Standard – Accurate Predictions

January 16, 2014

Dr. Andrew Dessler has been one of the most valuable players  on the climate research team for some time. On thursday he testified before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, Barbara Boxer’s domain.

I pulled this screen recording off the Senate EPW website, a little herky jerky but the sound is there. Written pdf here.
Key points:

The mainstream science of climate change has met the gold standard of science in that it allows scientists to make predictions that are accurate, example, stratospheric cooling/tropospheric warming, polar amplification mainly in the arctic, water vapor feedbacks,

These points fit into a more general context about how science works. Making successful predictions is the gold standard of science. If a theory successfully predicts phenomena that are later observed, one can be confident that the theory captures something essential about the real world system. The standard model has done that. For example, climate scientists predicted in 1967 that the stratosphere would cool while the troposphere warmed as a result of increasing greenhouse gases. This was observed 20 years later. Climate models predicted in the 1970s that the Arctic would warm faster the Antarctic. This has also been subsequently confirmed.

and a host of others that went unmentioned.

I’ll be downloading the whole thing and give that a listen when Cspan makes it available, will advise.

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6 Responses to “Dr. Andrew Dessler – Climate Science Meets the Gold Standard – Accurate Predictions”

  1. fortranprog Says:

    Interesting point is that Judith Curry (Co author of Thermodynamics of Atmosphere and Ocean 1998 and chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology) also gave testimony at the same hearing, she of course is sceptical and made the following points (which will delight her coolist camp followers)

    “For the past 16 years, there has been no significant increase in surface temperature. There is a growing discrepancy between observations and climate model projections. Observations since 2011 have fallen below the 90% envelope of climate model projections”

    “The IPCC does not have a convincing or confident explanation for this hiatus in warming.”

    “There is growing evidence of decreased climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxideconcentrations”

    “Based on expert judgment in light of this evidence, the IPCC 5th assessment report lowered its surface temperature projection relative to the model projections for the period 2016-2036.”

    Graciously she did praise Dr Dessler however.

    “Andrew Dessler did a pretty good job particularly on the verbal testimony and answering questions.”

    Although her stand mystifies me (and I am sometimes suspicious, particularly with her Mail/NIPCC/WUWT contributions) it is always worth considering all points of views.

  2. dumboldguy Says:

    He did line them up and shoot them down, didn’t he? Too bad he had to jam 10 minutes worth of ideas into 5 minutes—-the Repugs on the committee can’t think that fast.


  3. […] Dr. Andrew Dessler has been one of the most valuable players on the climate research team for some time. On thursday he testified before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, Barbara …  […]


  4. […] Peter Sinclair posted a video of Andrew Dessler’s testimony. Eli Rabett posted Dessler’s testimony in full. […]


  5. […] 2014/01/16: PSinclair: Dr. Andrew Dessler — Climate Science Meets the Gold Standard — Ac… […]


  6. […] was reviewing recent hearings before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee.  I posted Dr. Andrew Dessler’s testimony in support of the scientific community last […]


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